QLD Has Brisbane had its run?

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by rookie101, 31st Mar, 2022.

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Are you still buying in Brisbane?

  1. yes

    40 vote(s)
    28.8%
  2. no

    99 vote(s)
    71.2%
  1. SouthieMonk

    SouthieMonk Well-Known Member

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    Genuine question,From where these numbers are getting calculated? None of the suburbs I follow shows this trend...less supply but whatever is available, taking more time to settle than what it would take in Nov-Dec. Agents too cold calling if we are interested in inspecting. Definitely I see less asking prices than 2021 end. Surprised to see 2% month increase. Unbelievable, almost numbers are cooked pretty deep.
     
  2. southern-investor

    southern-investor Well-Known Member

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    How are you tracking growth? Using RE/Domain medians? Onthehouse? Mypropertyvalue? All of them will not be able to show the up to date growth accurately. As you would know those are 12 month rolling medians or some websites data is so old its not even worth looking at so these figures will never match the Corelogic trackers.

    Corelogic daily, monthly growth and trend rates. They are updated daily and by looking at this months growth for each day for the entire month of April its on par or better than last month.

    Jan - 2%
    Feb - 2%
    March - 2.1%
    April - Looks to be 2%+ with only 3 days to go.

    Lets see the final numbers on the 1st of May.
     
    TheRons likes this.
  3. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Went out yesterday afternoon to a open inspection about 15 kms from the CBD on the south-side..
    Daughter went to the open last Saturday -- they were the only people that turned up ..
    A valuer's option was roughly in line with
    a bank valuer's range..
    The property is a large corner block 2 street entry maintenance wise it would rent straight away..
    Talked too the agent as this property accordingly to the agent has already had five offer's and the vendor refused every one..
    Just have to wait and see today as the Daughter sent the offer of last night at the same price the vendors refused..
    Some area's are starting to stall and watching the media now that interest rates and inflation and participants in the election all combine with the systems fragility..
     
    Last edited: 28th Apr, 2022
  4. SouthieMonk

    SouthieMonk Well-Known Member

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    I understand that. But that is not what I meant. I don't see 2% a month or 8% in 2022, in prices or interest in suburbs where I am looking. Now, agents are chasing for attending inspections. Any listed property in Nov- Dec was sold in a week , sometimes even without first open home. Now, even after 3 weeks, agents scheduling inspections. That is why, I want to know from where these Corelogic numbers are coming from.
     
  5. SouthieMonk

    SouthieMonk Well-Known Member

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    I too have Similar experience a week ago.
     
  6. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    All property markets have stalled throughout Australia since election being called.

    If 2019 repeats itself and somehow Liberals get to hold on to power, markets will quickly surge. A vendor listing today with auction in 5 weeks is basically gambling on the outcome of elections.

    If labor wins, Sydney property surely will be in hot waters. Brisbane will continue the march forward but not at a great pace like last 12 months.
     
  7. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Libs getting back in will change much in the property market (different for share market).. however Labor getting in may have a negative affect in the short term.

    I think interest rates will have the biggest impact once punters digest they will be dealing with at least another 1% in 12 months, and the extra repayments start coming out of their accounts. Even though Brisbane may not be affected as much with generally lower debt levels, sentiment will change.

    Remembering also in the last 12 months there has been a lot of investors from Sydney and Melbourne buying in the market snapping up a lot of things quickly that would otherwise sit on the market for a while and start attracting lower offers. Once they see extra payments on their PPOR, as well as whatever other IP they may have - the desire to purchase further property will surely start to evaporate.

    The election + rates cocktail people have been talking about for months slowing the market is starting to finally kick in, shouldn't really be any surprise it will even hit Brisbane too. Just somewhat delayed.
     
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  8. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Fair points but Brisbane hasn’t surged due to low rates since rates have been going down since 2010 and we only saw tangible real movements in last 2 years.

    Brisbane is only going up because of ‘Great Southern Migration’ which isn’t going to slow down any time soon.

    If rates do go up by 1%, it would make all the more sense for someone with a $1.5m mortgage in Sydney to head Brisbane and basically halve their mortgage payments due to price difference while it exists for another 3-4 years at max.

    Sydney was always out of investors reach since last 10 years unless someone went stupidly negatively geared. With all post covid foreign migration, it’s now basically impossible for someone to buy a PPOR within 25km radius unless they make $500k plus in family income to service mortgages over $3m+ needed for typical suburban homes.

    All those priced out investors headed for Logan in the past. Now we have thousands of priced out owner occupiers who are heading to middle ring Brisbane to have a shot at their Australian dream so I wouldn’t worry about Brisbane slowing down anytime soon. My real worry is soaring land tax payments.
     
  9. southern-investor

    southern-investor Well-Known Member

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    Logan bloody damn expensive now. Nothing is cheap anymore. Heck even Ipswich bloody damn expensive.
     
  10. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, their blood threshold isn't indexed....so after a few years, you're in tax hell. Ah well, small price to pay given the growth we've had.
     
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  11. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Dalby. Possibly commutable ;-)

    This is why I think Brisbane is peaking. Its up there now in price.
    I think good suburbs will stay strong for a bit. Where there is more demand than supply. New Farm, West End, Paddington.
     
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  12. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    I believe Brisbane has had the perfect angel in the last 12 months of:

    1) Yes, plenty of migration - often meaning those "big dollar prices" in Brisbane (which are very much lower than Sydney as you say). Although quite a few areas to get something "good" here in a good inner suburb will now start to cost you 1.5-3M, so the gap is shrinking, Melb even more so. Surely becoming less attractive?

    2) Investors buying in places like Logan, anything sub $1M in BCC. Investors bought the property I sold. Seems about 1 in 3 sales in suburbs I watch around 10km out are going to investors - I watch and see them on the "for rent" section a month later.

    3) Cashed up first home buyers trying to buy what they can sub $1.2M

    So I think 1) will continue no mater what, like you say.. meaning high end will continue. What I reckon might take a drop in demand is 2 and 3 in the next year due to rising rates, which will be your sub $1M market.

    Yes, land tax will affect those buying too many up here - I'm not entirely sure all will have a full realisation of it until they receive their first bill. Indexing will take a while to kick in true values for some as well. Probably 2024, around which time rates (could well) be 5-6.5%.
     
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  13. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Well, what's not talked about here, presumably bc NOONE knows, is how long rates will stay elevated. How long will the inflationary effects remain? Will they wane if the price of oil drops to normal levels etc?

    High rates are unlikely to kill anyone unless they're sustained. If its only 12-24 months, the majority will be ok.

    There are so many things that can happen between now and the next 24 months? Did anyone predict a pandemic? Did anyone predict the boom we've just had? Did anyone think Russia was serious? Virtually noone did, including the experts.

    And sorry, its a bit off topic.
     
    Last edited: 28th Apr, 2022
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  14. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Brisbane will do whatever it does.
    There is a price point for everyone.
    When I was buying Brisbane in 2014, $500-$600k was my budget. I bought as close to the city as I could and landed in 5km radius from CBD.
    Now those suburbs are in the +$1m brackets, there are still plenty of buyers. It isn't like 5km from CBD is a bad location. :rolleyes:

    Lets see how the interest rates goes in the coming years. I have a few locked in at under 2.5% till late 2023.
    Plenty of things to do in between to prepare for the eventuate.
     
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  15. southern-investor

    southern-investor Well-Known Member

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  16. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Does any really understand the implications of the new Qld land tax?

    My understanding is as follows. Assume like a lot of us on here your total national land holdings is $5m. Assume that you hold $1.5m Qld.

    Land tax in Qld for $5m in land is 67k. If the new land tax legislation is passed you will be up for prorata 1.5m of the $5m as land tax. Which is $19,100!

    As opposed to the $12,750 today. Interesting huh?

    The people who will get smashed are the ones who own $5m and 60% in Qld and 40% in other states like NSW which have high land tax rates. You will be up for $33.5k instead of $29.25k.

    Last year I paid 11k in Qld. This year it will probably jump to 17k. But I have an exit plan which will bring this down to about 10k within 2 years.

    People who are not managing their land tax liabilities and have large holdings in NSW/SA/Qld will could end up paying 70k plus in land tax....without holding a lot of properties with a lot of value compared to their land tax bills. My plan is to bring land tax to 6% or under of rents collected.
     
    Last edited: 29th Apr, 2022
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  17. tigerpaws

    tigerpaws Active Member

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    Trying to buy in this market ( sub 600k) and I am seeing the cooling effect as some stock is just not selling. Last weekend I saw 9ish properties which included a couple off-market or pre-market listings. Only 3 sold and I had every single agent call me on Monday.

    I am seeing lots of crap being offloaded. Properties that are long term rental stock that have had zero care. Properties with rusty roofs and structural cracking, and the dungen position in the block are all selling for record prices. Or they need to do some serious asbestos removal and every man and his dog is trying because property because they don't understand the asbestos warning signs attached to the building. The asbestos unit sold last week ( poor buyer because it was a damaged ceiling with popcorn).

    I am also seeing properties come back on the market due to the banks refusing finance. Then agents are pushing for no finance causes as vendors still want stupid prices.

    Price-wise it's very agent-based. Some agents will push for new highs and then try and find a cash buyer.
     
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  18. southern-investor

    southern-investor Well-Known Member

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    Which area's you looking that is sub $600k? I'm very active in Logan and currently live in Heritage Park. Been shopping for a PPOR for like 3 months now and every week prices are continuing to go up. I've been outbid every single damn time and my offers are quite generous I would say and inline with market.

    I put in an offer for both of these and were beaten out but at least $25k on each of them.

    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-marsden-138864727
    https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-marsden-138887591

    Pretty much anything sub $700k still getting sold for significantly OVER asking prices. I was going to look at Forest Lake but damn..............what the hell happened there. We got 3 bedders on 250-320sqm selling for $600k-$650k now.

    Anything larger and its like $800k+. Forest Lake going to be a million dollar suburb very soon. In fact some houses already sold for over $1M there.
     
  19. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I went through Moorooka early this morning on the way to work..
    Every property I drove past has a sold sign outside..
    Talking to Local agent last Friday who dropped in the house I'm rebuilding and he said he may not have the number's of interstate cash wiwo like last year-- but it's the same low listing's and prices are still holding at present levels..
    Once the election is complete as I don't think Labor will be successful no matter how high the interest or inflation rates climb as some small pockets in south-side inner Brisbane just keep going the same patterns for the last 35 years..
     
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  20. Headlong

    Headlong Well-Known Member

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    Both those Marsden houses are good. Should've upped the bid
     
    southern-investor likes this.

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