QLD Has Brisbane had its run?

Latest IP in QLD

Paid $1.2m in June 2021
Bank valuation today came back at $1.57 (just enough to move entire loan to security’s own title - deposit was financed by another property including stamp duty)

$0 paid other than 2-3 trips to Brisbane to procure it and $300k equity within a year! I love rising markets!

 

Now might not be the time to buy in Logan. You don't want the winners curse.
Leave it until things settle down

 

I'm about to refinance to pepper I think they have a good product especially as the interest-only is the same as p&i however I'm under no illusions that they will probably stick it to people just like the other non-banks will. Most known Banks know that their loan base doesn't have a lot of other options so they can really sting you in a rising rate environment by loading it a little bit more I don't think Peppers canopy any different to the other non-banks in that regard

 

I agree. It's already slowing is what I'm hearing.
I actually think now is probably a pretty good time to sell for those who are thinking about it

 

I think the FOMO is exactly the fear that things won't settle down, that prices for a family-friendly property in a decent area with bearable commute will only get higher and even further out of reach the longer you wait. I don't blame people who feel this way. Though my partner and I bought our place on the Goldie just as the boom was starting so got very lucky. Also buying a property especially PPOR gets emotional for a lot of people, so FOMO and impatience gets more power.

 

It is quite easy to FOMO over house that tick all the boxes.
Imagine 15 mins to city work, shops, childcare, airport.
This is all at your finger tips travel time.
I know for me time is the most important thing - I can't buy more time with money. But I can buy a place with more money.

Location, location, location.
It will be hard for me to move away from Clayfield.

 

I still see properties getting sold each week on the areas I am interested in, however the prices are coming down on some properties before it's sold because I think they were unrealistic to start off with and they were going for gold.

 

I'm tracking North Lakes area, and still seems to be chugging along ok.
Prices are holding - lots of families buying.

 

Going well reading this lol
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/brisbane-qld/eyewatering-price-for-rundown-shack-in-brisbanes-outskirts/news-story/d10298c3d4a6d4cfedac62840de82d11

 

In what areas of Brisbane are you seeing prices coming down? I'm curious ...

 

I've seen price getting updated for properties in Deception Bay, Kippa-Ring, Kallangur and Caboolture before they were under contract which was curious to see and as stated previously, maybe they were unrealistic with the original listing price. Also, I stress I said some and not all, as good quality homes are still in demand. I'll certainty be using a BA to tap into their expertise but it's good to window shop for the time being.

I acknowledge not all properties are equal within a suburb as I know from my own experience in the areas I've personally researched and bought properties, even a street away on a suburb can have a price discrepancy of $100,000.

Btw I'm a weekly listener of your podcast and I like Scott's weather update.

 

I'll let Scott know ... he really needs no encouragement with his weather updates

 

I just don't see how this all continues. The Gold Coast and Brisbane are approaching Melbourne prices, as Sydney and Melbourne relocate en masse to southeastern Queensland.

I don't see prices going back down. But I also can't see prices increasing at more than 3-5% a year on average, especially given interest rates will be headed back up, and while Australia is doing well, the world may well enter a recession.

I never understood Sydney and Melbourne prices. The inner cities becoming expensive playgrounds for the rich. Sure. The average house costing $800k-$1.2m... seems idiotic. No one wins, save those with multiple properties. Now I don't understand the Gold Coast market anymore. I mean I get it, supply/demand. But I can't see buying another IP in the GC ever again. Anyone trying to buy a house can look forward to devoting a huge chunk of their income toward a mortgage.

I'll probably just buy outer suburbs or regional. Preferably $500k or less, as yields are better, and there's room to grow.

Could someone that likes buying $1m investment properties explain the logic. Just seems like it has to be a gamble on appreciation. Yields are shot, meaning it is harder to build an ever larger portfolio. The property is unaffordable to the average worker. I don't get it.

I'm not really happy prices have gone up this much, at all.

Then again, it looks like Gold Coast, Brisbane, and Sunshine Coast are it, if I want to go in the ocean, without worrying about box jellyfish in Queensland... it really is nice here...

Geraldton, WA also looks really nice though... at a fraction of the price. Why does everyone want to pile in to half a dozen capital cities at exorbitant prices.

 

There's a reason why it's a fraction of the price. Supply and demand.

 

I'm not far off wanting to rent out our family's own homes, and moving somewhere else perfectly nice at 1/3 of the price. Seriously, it's getting really hard to justify the opportunity cost. I see no way we'd be buying on the Gold Coast or living where we are now, if we had to buy now, as the price has now more than doubled in 10 years since we bought here. What are wages up in that time? 20%, if that?

I get supply demand, but why. Sydney and Melbourne were absurdly expensive 10 years ago also. The attraction of cheap Queensland property becomes less so, when it is near as expensive as Melbourne. Why didn't they ruin SEQ 10 years ago? Why does this disparity exist, and is now disappearing. People surely didn't wake up in the last year or two, and suddenly realise Sydney and Melbourne are ridiculously expensive. It can't all just be people working from home keeping their Melbourne/Sydney jobs moving to SEQ. People had an existential awakening from covid? Ty for any thoughts.

 

It depends mate and how smart they are. Sometimes ago, I ran out of borrowing went to tier-3 to buy a property high 200k and did some reno and rented to low 400s pw. That was the best investment I did with great yield. The property is valued low 700s by big4 now in 3 years time. Things changed then moved to big4.

Age doesn’t play here, it comes down how smart they are. I have seen few Grey hair bought 3 houses with no strategy and sold at loss during 00-10 flat mkt in Sydney. They still advice property is risk game. Few loaded with units in Blacktown council which was pretty flat during boom.

 

I've seen some price reduction at The Gap which I have been following closely. Only on overpriced to begin with (ie wanting 1.03 for main road 3 bedroom, now down to offers over 899) and a handful of others. Good property still in high demand though. I think vendors with unrealistic expectations are now becoming more realistic. I also think some suburbs have topped...for now.

 

Easy answer. Perth. Brisbane 2 years ago.

 

Let's see.. Everyone that loaded with debt this time like last time. Inflation can be beast....

 

We are on track for Brisbane to do another 2%+ month again.

This would bring it to between 8.1% - 9.0% in the first 4 months depending how far above 2% Brissy does. Thus far its done 6.1% this quarter.