Growth in metro areas from now till 2024

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by PropDir, 29th May, 2021.

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  1. PropDir

    PropDir Well-Known Member Business Member

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    According to recent government announcements, interest rates will remain low until 2024.

    With that in mind, what are your predictions for growth in metro areas of our major states within say 30-40 kms of any major city.

    I am thinking annual growth of around 7-9% per year for next 3 years.

    Please provide your thoughts on this.
     
  2. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    Put down your thoughts on each city in your original post to get the conversation going bro!
     
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  3. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Adelaide- 15-30% increase from current prices up to June 2024.

    That prediction is based on the assumption that there are no interest rate rises for now until 2024. It's difficult to see growth 30%+ as Adelaide just doesn't have the jobs market / population growth to sustain high price to income ratios like Sydney imo. Also wages growth is predicted to be fairly stagnant e.g. Treasury predicts that Australians won't receive real wage rises for years.

    Budget 2021: No real pay rises expected for years, Treasury says
     
  4. PropDir

    PropDir Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Hi all - I can't say I have a vey scientific response here, but I will provide some brief thoughts on the Sydney market, for suburbs 20-30kms from Sydney CBD.

    I believe these Sydney suburbs will grow 7-9% per year for next 3 years. The reasons are as follows:
    • Interest rates are at all time low, and government has indicated they will not go higher till at least 2024.
    • First home buyers still have got generous incentives, which will continue to drive interest in the market.
    • Auction clearances are still very strong (and have been very strong since the first Saturday auction this year) - we are only in May/June now, and traditionally spring (around September / October) is when the seller's market is strongest - so I think we still have some growth yet. See auction clearances attached during last 5-6 months.
    • The above rough estimate assumes no major moves/changes by the government, and no drastic lockdowns caused by COVID.
    I think Melbourne and Brisbane will grow at a similar rate, and possibly Canberra too. I'm not too familiar with Perth/Adelaide/Tassie but keen to hear everybody else's thoughts.

    Thanks.
     

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  5. PropDir

    PropDir Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Thanks @2FAST4U. Can you advise your thoughts on other states/cities?
     
  6. PropDir

    PropDir Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Hi mate - I've responded with some thoughts regarding Sydney.

    I'd be keen to hear everyone's thoughts on other cities and states.
     
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  7. PropDir

    PropDir Well-Known Member Business Member

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    And further to this, do you see the growth drivers for Adelaide being mainly the low interest rates environment? Anything else?
     
  8. craigc

    craigc Well-Known Member

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    Generally positive most areas but perhaps Melbourne lagging due to continued lockdowns encourage more interstate movements to Qld etc.

    State budget problems and higher state taxes, housing costs, low yields, will discourage investment and price growth.

    Federal tax policies and low interest rates encourage growth and investment so still net growth just lagging behind some other states.

    O/O attractive houses with some land will still be in high demand. Inner city high rise stay away.

    Still depends on borders opening as well as 2nd largest international migration city.

    Disclaimer: a million other factors will change the outcome both state & nationally that we have not considered!
     

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