Great info on previous downturns

Boom ended 2003
Bottom 2008
Last boom ended 2017
Bottom 2022? Maybe 2023
Cycles seem to be getting longer. I find it strange when people are saying this is the bottom (it's only been a year since the boom and that lasted over 3 years).

 

Thanks, exactly what I was after

 

Of course, but it should be part of any research

 

Saw this pretty good article:

Residential Property Declines – The Lessons of History

 

I especially like this quote:

3: Statistics on Household Balance Sheets

Almost by definition, one can’t detect an asset price bubble when examining a balance sheet. The balance sheets of Japanese banks and corporates were pristine in 1990 (the assets were overvalued) and the dynamic LVR on US mortgages reached a low point in 2006 (houses were overvalued). Despite this, various commentators show debt:asset ratios for Australian households as evidence that all is well.

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We certainly had posters here making the same statements with regards of average LVRs and what not while forgetting value part of LVR is credit driven.

 

How come? What about the expanded GDP because of population growth and new opportunities created because of that? There was an article floating around a while ago suggesting that Australia's continued economic growth is due to immigration.

Just putting it into perspective...

 

They have to see a cycle or two....it kinda like being a rip.....

 

Of course the economy expands when you add more people. However, what is important is GDP per capita growth, which has been abysmal for Australians since 2013.

 

The cycle usually runs in two lots of 6-7 years with a correction in between. The first correction lasts 2 years, the second deeper one lasts 4 years.

Last correction was 2008-2012. Then a 5-6 year boom to 2017-2018. I would only expect a 2 year correction this time (one year to go), and a longer correction in a bout 6-7 years from now.

This correction has been super quick/sharp. So while it has longer to run, it doesn't look like grinding lower over many years.

Just my thoughts.