Good time to short

The VIX hitting 30. Usually markets have been regarded as oversold when it's beyond 36. If you take that to be true, then plenty more to go. Volatility only looks to be increasing . As a rule of thumb, VIX values greater than 30 are generally linked to large volatility resulting from increased uncertainty, risk, and investors’ fear.

We're at 30 now. Interesting times.

 

This is a good example of why I have 8 accounts, dividing the kitty and also constantly transferring profits to a seperate totally safe account. Some accounts I trade only 1 stock to limit the amount needed in it.

Imagine you were going long and had a SL somewhere when snapchat crashed 40%....your SL would have been totally missed and only triggered after a massive line up of SL were filled. The losses you intended to have would have been much greater. Look at that insane gap....

 

Where the indexes ended up. DjIA is fighting for its life to stop slipping. Some calling it 'bear rallies'.

The tech stocks I'm shorting got absolutely hammered last night.

Off to zzzzz...back up in 2h to receive renovation delivery. The dam rain.....

 

I’m going long with 25% capital today so look out Sackie
*staying away from tech stocks though

 

Good luck mate, hope you make a Motza!

I'm mostly shorting tech and have been since late last year. The run I've had has been in-sane. The only question now is,.how much of the profits can I keep. I passed the point long ago of being able to lose original equity.

Hope you do well mate! Are you DCA in long term hold?

 

Yes I’ve been following your activities and I’m a long term holder accumulating. I was very lucky in shorting the Covid crash pretty much top to bottom but I went back for seconds assuming it was simply a bear market rally, no one predicted that V recovery but I was happy to make a quick 6 months wages anyhow. You just need to know when to switch back to bull mode and put your profits in the kitty. I like your multiple account system. Best of luck mate

 

Definitely. I use Oanda, Pepperstone, IC markets and just opened Global Prime.
And a different sub acct for diff strategies and risk profiles.
I trade my main strategy over 4 brokers pretty much replicating trades.
And have a couple subs for higher risk/return with about much less capital. They're still fairly safe at 1:30 would still take a fairly big spike for 50% draw down...but markets are never 100% safe. Tomorrow it could be all gone.

Leaving stop losses is dangerous, these days fx markets close 23:59 reopen at 00:01 (not Oanda) and that gives the "liquidity providers" or the broker a chance to buy or sell way below or above market price, which is the stop orders as the order book is cleared. And those prices traded will never appear on the chart.
I trade small, longer terms and rarely use stop losses.

 

Agree leaving SL is dangerous...main reason I'm awake all night. But I could never not use a SL...some positions are too big to dare...

fyiThe director of global prime for Australia is a very close friend of mine. Went to school together too.

 

Holding pattern so far tonight. Recently, that's been followed by a dip the following day.

Of course, I have no idea what I'm talking about, just an observation.

 

Indexes not doing much atm. Well see how the session ends .

 

Fed minutes released at 2.30pm est, in 20 mins .. prolly fireworks in either direction

 

A positive night for the indexes

 

@Piston_Broke I'm still shorting usd/jpy. You exited perfect time on 4h. I'm trading daily so still in it. Looks like it may go another leg down soon.

 

Time to to get on the ASX shorting game me thinks. I think 15% fall definitely on the cards to catch up to the US.

Nobody is yet fully pricing in the coming recession and collapse of iron ore and commodities off the bank of a falling Chinese economy. With construction and housing about to collapse big time that will take down many domestic companies too.

RIO, FMG, BHP to get smashed, pulling down the XJO significantly.

Overseas hedge funds will go short and use the ASX like a chew toy. They have probably loaded up already.

 

I just closed as I'm expecting a bounce from US news before it drops. Also closed cadjpy.
Soon there's US jobless claims where markets go nuts over 5-10k in a nation of 300 million.

And Oil is slowly gowing up again...waiting for another spike.

The US markets also gained much more and has always been a significant tech market.
For the ASX it could be a slow bumpy road down as the big $$ exit when super funds are buying every month.

While I hope so, not sure if that will happen as resources are in demand. Unless there's a olitical issue.
They'r still the bigget and most profitable on the board paying good dividends.
I'd be a buyer at Nov prices.

 

My oil prediction from March. To hit 150. Lol

Oil prediction, $150

 

Futures looking healthy. May be another up day for markets.

 

I think early-2020 prices would be more appropriate given the current environment. China themselves even say they're in a deeper hole than 2020.


The latest official data showed a contraction in industrial output for the first time since 2020 and a jump in the surveyed jobless rate to 6.1% in April, close to a record. High-frequency data for May showed the economy remained in a deep slump, according to Bloomberg’s aggregate index of eight indicators.

ref: Xi-Li Discord Paralyzes Officials Responsible for China Economy


I'm not exactly sure why IO prices have not dropped further yet. I'm guessing they are still buying up to ensure their stockpiles are high, but eventually they're going to stop buying as they don't have the underlying demand, and it will probably go back under $US100/tonne.

Obviously they'll come back at some point, as there is a super-cycle in play, but right now doesn't seem like a great time to buy those sort of stocks.

Most big countries now getting downgraded on GDP, a few % here and there due to UKR + Russia + general inflation issues. Pretty much a big global slowdown, if not recession. US feeling it first methinks.

Thing is construction here seems like it is about to cliff jump, especially when you read articles like this - https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...m/news-story/70869cee3e563afbcdbc4fc7ee4e63eb. Often a portend to a major general economic slowdown. This will have a follow-through effect to many other companies as they lay off workers, etc.

WOW, HVN, JBH already been sold off more heavily than others I think in anticipation of general consumers spending less. Other stuff will follow.. maybe the banks next as rates rise, and property markets start to fall or stagnate less new loans being written. Will have to squeeze their existing customer base. Lets see what happens there.

Anyhow, right now obviously a bit of a US bounce which will maybe pull us up a bit for a while.

When I see our ASX200 only off about 5% off ATH, given the current global conditions, I just am not convinced that's really justified. Maybe I'm just a little ahead of the general thinking, timing is everything...

 

heya, what’s your rationale on why the miners are going to get hammered?