NSW Good outlook for Sydney Property in 2018

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Tenex, 29th Jan, 2018.

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  1. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    Commsec State of States is out and no surprise NSW is number one. The good news is the leader of economic growth in NSW is actually retail spending.

    NSW came number 1 in unemployment, number 2 in economic growth and number 3 in population growth. Considering it has the biggest population in Australia already and is still growing at that rate (behind Victoria) is a massive positive. Contrary to many comments on this forum that indicated people are moving out of NSW.

    Other good news is auction clearance rate just last weekend reported at 82% by Domain and 73% by Realestate.com and we are only in January.

    State of the States

    Sydney Real Estate Auction Results

    Auction Results Sydney, NSW - Latest Weekend Results
     
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  2. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    What's causing the economic and population growth?
     
  3. jprops

    jprops Well-Known Member

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    82% for 22 scheduled auctions? Not worth mentioning.
     
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  4. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep...Sydney on an average compared to the last 2 years has come off ...the auction clearance rates are not improving..and more are listed for straight sale.

    Softening market 'drags down number of auctions'

    Out west the discounting is pronounced......
     
  5. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    There is no simple answer by at present NSW is the powerhouse of economic activity. A lot of the infrastructure projects are on the way but many have not even started yet and these are government based infrustructure bothe federal and state.

    However the good news is retail spending (rather than construction) is emerging back and when retail does well, thats a good sign for most other sectors as retail is usually the one that struggles the most.

    Population growth is obviously fueled by employment, universities (we have the best and most attractive universities in the country) and better infrastructure.

    Regional NSW obviously offers great life-style and has been the reason for growth as well.
     
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  6. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    Thats why it is a %. You could have 10 auctions with 6 of them unsuccessful, its not really the number of auctions you have.

    Above all we are only in January which is the quietest month of the year for realestate.
     
  7. jprops

    jprops Well-Known Member

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    The point is that it's a low sample size and therefore an unreliable indicator.
     
  8. Jacque

    Jacque Jacque Parker Premium Member

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    Statistically non reliable for sure - Feb results will be a better indicator but keep in mind that Australia-wide less than 25% of property is sold via auction, so that also needs to be taken into consideration.
    Most buyers and sellers get their skates on once school has returned....
     
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  9. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    No doubt. As I said we are looking at a % here. Point being that even though the number of properties that went for auction were lower than usual (because of January), many of them sold than they should sell in a troubled market.

    Think about it, you can have 30 properties go to market which is a pretty low number but due to the conditions of the market only 3 of them manage to get a buyer.
     
  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Yep and I took advantage of that with a recent buy for a friend in Croydon Park :D
     
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  11. HGM

    HGM Well-Known Member

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    And the median auction price was about a third down on pre-Christmas...
     
  12. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo midas touch

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    Looking at some sold prices in outer Melbourne this week, I don't think the fat lady's done her thang yet.
     
  13. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    Just read this article on aus finance: Property Industry Australia’s Largest Employer

    Says property industry is biggest employer.
     
  14. Redom

    Redom Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    Yep i think some of the factors noted by @Tenex may provide some resilience to the market in an otherwise 'cycle' downturn. I find it difficult to logically comprehend massive price crashes when economic conditions are so strong. Finance markets and some indirect forced deleveraging may outweigh some of the economic headwinds in NSW though (and drag economy down, compounding the problem). On balance, best summary of it IMO is 'even though a market is overvalued, it doesn't mean it will fall in value right away'.
     
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  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Look to finance son...finance....dems where the contagion will start......first people can't borrow as much...then I/O loans expire and people can't refinance...then the construction boom slows in NSW...and then...there is not trade-up market....dems how it will fall this time....
     
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  16. OO1

    OO1 Well-Known Member

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  17. dan2101

    dan2101 Well-Known Member

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  18. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    So true, my 3 low interest only fixed loans are going to expire the end of this year. I am preparing for the shock to eventuate. I think I will do ok given that i have enough buffer and the rental returns are not so bad. But for those who brought 1.5mil properties with $500 rent, those will go down first when **** hit the fan.
     
  19. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    actually OP apartments with 3k pq strata brought at the height of the boom are probably doing 20-30% worth off already.
     
  20. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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