Global warming up

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by Angel, 15th Jul, 2015.

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  1. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I am speaking to people in the other groups, but scientists questioning the accurace of climate model predictions are not global warming deniers per se. They simply point out that climate model predictions are consistently wrong.
     
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  2. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    I suspect every scientist with skin in the game questions the accuracy of climate model predictions. Kind of their job.
     
  3. T.C.

    T.C. Well-Known Member

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    Sure does. Fertilizer would be the main reason for increased crop yields plus all those other things. I didn't even mention CO2. It's probably helped a bit too, as has increased rainfall and longer seasons. Thanks for reminding me.

    See ya's.
     
  4. LibGS

    LibGS Well-Known Member

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    Please let's not say deniers. I used to say that. Now I use the far more accurate term of pro-myth.
     
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  5. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    a 1000 yard snipe, but no hand to hand battle?

    Come on Sanj...get into it. :D
     
  6. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    This is where I come from to a large degree.

    A lot of predictions are based on models.

    Hence; grain of salt, healthy skeptcism, lots of questions and especially from those who make the most noise and who have agendas.
     
  7. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Honestly - we're not having a dig at you. This is a serious and genuine discussion about the future health of our planet from all angles ... sure artificial plant stimulants (NPK) increases yields - amongst other advances like selective breeding and resistance - but the addition of artificial "fertilisers" are at what cost to nutrition (see link in previous post) and soil health (see link in previous post)?

    It's the same as burning coal for energy - just because something's been done a certain way for several generations, doesn't mean it's the best method nowadays.

    Statistics say that we throw away more than half the food produced in Australia due to deformities in size/shape (who else buys the "odds" range of fruit and veges at Woolies :D ) or simply wastage from rot or over production or disposal due to ridiculously low price to farmers ... imagine if we could harness this waste ...

    I know I am just "playing" at farmer in your eyes. I have a few acres of grapes and a few acres of garlic and a few acres of assorted vegetables such as fennel, pumpkin, beetroot and looking into turmeric and a few acres of horses - all grown organically - we have had no need to add artificial anything ... we add a green cover crop, chicken manure, rock lime, non-pasture mulch (lotsa bracken etc), minute trace elements such as boron and sulphur and our soils having been continually improving their humus, fungi and worm levels and fertility year after year despite removing crops each season.

    Even the crusty old vineyard manager from next door has started controlling his own under vine weeds with his not-touched-in-30-yrs under-plough after we asked him to use it on our property. It controls the weeds far better than his previous continual spraying with a weedkiller that is so toxic it requires the sprayer to sit in a sealed airtight cab - and no spray required. He used to laugh at me when we first moved in ... now - multi-generational farmer - he's quietly watching with interest.
     
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  8. T.C.

    T.C. Well-Known Member

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    I didn't reply to your other posts as it's so off topic. Just didn't want to annoy others.

    I've got nothing against organic farming. It just annoys me when organic farmers have a go at what I do and don't recognise that they depend on conventional farmers for the nutrients that they use when they cart the straw and manure that originated on other farms onto their farms and think they are saving the planet or something silly.

    As I said before, if conventional fertilizer was really so bad, the worlds soil would have been stuffed 50 years ago, as it's been around for 70 years! But farms continue to grow more and more from less land! What is so hard to understand?

    Perhaps you could start a new thread?

    See ya's.
     
    Last edited: 17th Jul, 2015
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  9. T.C.

    T.C. Well-Known Member

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    Actually, start a new thread on your terrific little organic farm, and also about Australian soils, and I will contribute also, and I'll explain why what you are doing is so good and why it wouldn't work on my farm.

    See ya's.
     
  10. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention food which has been prepared and then not eaten.
     
  11. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I came on this morning to delete the above thread - but it's already had some answers ... I was starting to get preachy, and I hate preachy ...

    I do know that organic and large scale commercial are not mutually exclusive ... I have friends who grow large scale organic wine, beef and garlic.

    But I also really appreciate what farmers like TC do - as the masses do need to be fed ...
     
  12. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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  13. Perp

    Perp Well-Known Member

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    The first-linked article doesn't deny climate change is anthropogenic; it simply questions how big a difference Australia can make because we're small. It's a silly argument; if China was divided into 400 countries, or America into 15, each of them would have about the same population as Australia and they could make the same argument. The point is that everybody on the planet has to "do their bit".

    The second two are both about Dr John Christy, who is one of the very few climate scientists who disagree. His disagreement is almost certainly motivated by the lens through which he views the world, which is extremely right-wing libertarian - even by US standards.
     
  14. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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  15. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    How Ironic Lizzie you put a links about how bad ploughing the soil is, 20 years later when technics have changed, you advocate farmers should return to that method. Also all that land that was going to turn saline twenty years ago in twenty years hasnt happened ! Thanks to technics that improved water efficiency and reduced recharge. Brown manuring is now done in preference to green manuring, because green manuring requires the burning of fossi fuels, the manufacture of larger tractors implements and plough shares, (pollution). disturbs the ground and makes weeds grow and so the requirement for multiple herbicide application, germinations could continue for years, kills worms and destroys macropores reducing air and water infiltration so microbial activity mineralization etc. It can also increase evaporation and increase frost as there is reduced cover to hold in heat.
     
  16. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Maybe try this:

    https://cei.org/blog/manufacturing-...tique-john-christys-climate-science-testimony
     
  17. sonofthewest

    sonofthewest Active Member

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    To those who think the world's in a cooling phase, the latest review by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows otherwise:

     
  18. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    One year of extremes is a very small window of time to pick.

    I particularly loved this little bit in that review on page 82;

    "Tropical Pacific SSTA warmed by 0.18°–0.21°C
    from 2013 to 2014, making 2014 the second warmest
    In the tropical Atlantic, SSTA was mostly cool
    before 1995 and warmed rapidly from 1992 to 2003
    (Fig. 3.4d). Warm SSTA largely persisted from 2003
    to 2009, then suddenly warmed to its highest histori
    -
    cal value in 2010, owing to the combined influences
    of El Niño, a long-persistent negative phase of North
    Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term warming
    trend (Hu et al. 2011). Since 2010, tropical Atlantic
    SSTA cooled substantially in 2011–12 and rebounded
    slightly in 2013–14.
    North Pacific SSTA cooled from 1950 to 1987,
    but rebounded from approximately −0.5°C in 1987
    to +0.31°C in 1990, and has been largely warm since
    then (Fig. 3.4e). North Pacific SSTA warmed by ap
    -
    proximately 0.17°C from 2013 to 2014, making 2014
    the warmest year in this region since 1982 based on
    OISST and the warmest year since 1950 based on both
    ERSST and HadISST."

    So, +.31 and -.5 as extremes, in one small area. How deep/shallow is the water, how bad were the storms/droughts/heat waves/sun flares, and so forth in the region at that time or that year?

    Should we be alarmed yet?

    Is this bit classed as CC, or GW?

    Moving on;

    It's an interesting observation too; I often hear the weather reports on the news, and they will say something like; "Coldest June day/Hottest February day on record" (and reverse this for coldest in summer and hottest in winter, etc).

    And then often it is followed up with a statement about the date from the previous record - and guess what they say; "Since 1879" or "Since 1911" and so forth and so on....often more than a hundred years ago.

    And this little detail is amazingly never picked up on by anyone.

    Luckily, when Billy Bob wins the Election next year, we'll get our CT back in (sorry; ETS), and that'll help....by 1/4000th of a degree by 2020.

    We might even get the boats back when he moves in. woohoo...
     
    Last edited: 20th Jul, 2015
  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Hey! I notice that too :p
     
  20. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Good. I thought maybe it was just me.

    So; what is your take on all that?
     

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