GFC or economic recession is looming for Australia ?

Seriously?

The worlds largest 17 trillion dollar economy doesn't produce much goods anymore?

 

Yep. Tell me how many goods that you use everyday are made in US? Some computer stuff I believe, what else? Food - yeah, I remember half a year ago - peaches from US in Woolies? Clothing? My whole family lives in the US and even for them it's hard to find something which is made in USA.
The last item which was made in USA I have bought was a pair of Justin boots and it was in 1999.

 

This doesn't make any sense in a discussion of Australia's economy moving into recession. Recession is measured by 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth of GDP (a contraction of the economy). If the USA purchased Australian resources (Aus exports the product/USA imports the product), this would affect Australia's GDP. If Australia imported American made products, I don't really see how this affects GDP.

In 2012 the USA GDP was $15.68 trillion and ranked 2nd in the world behind the European Union.

In 2012, the USA exported $1.56 trillion of goods, a higher value than the Australian GDP for the same year ($1.52 trillion). So basically, the USA exported resources and goods with a higher value than the entire Australian ecomony for the same year.

Countries Compared by Economy > GDP. International Statistics at NationMaster.com

Australia vs United States: Economy Facts and Stats

 

At some point in the future, be it years or decades, either the Chinese economy will recover to the point where they start buying Australian resources again, or another emerging economy (such as India) will overtake China as Australia's primary export destination, or other countries collectively will buy enough Australian exports so that the economy starts growing again rather than going backwards. At the same time, the Australian economy could be diversified to the point where it is no longer so heavily reliant on the resources sector. This won't be a quick process.[/QUOTE]

China now has the same problems Japan had 25 years ago. It'll have the same fate as Japan. India will never take China's place in the world because they just can't do it the way China does - different mentality. I don't believe in serious economical diversification, because most will sit and wait for the mining boom to return, because it's easier.

 

lol. I can see people sitting around waiting for mining boom mark 3 as well.

So basically, you are saying the Australian economy will never recover from this downturn because you can't see how it can recover?

 

Well I fly on a Boeing 737 and 717 to work, Catch a Sikorsky helicopter to work on an Transocean oil rig for Australia's largest infrastructure project working currently on a dell computer with Intel chips using google chrome to access the internet with Microsoft Excel running in the background.

For starters.

 

Silly arguments about Australians consuming American goods, what is a bigger threat to the Australian economy, a mining downturn or construction downturn?

On the latest stats, GDP from Mining was 36,217 AUD million and GDP from construction was 31,582 AUD million, not that much less than mining.

Australia GDP Annual Growth Rate | 1960-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar

I realise that housing only makes up a percentage of GDP from construction but on the latest stats, total dwelling units approved was down 3% over the 12 months to December. If this continues to fall, it will futher impact GDP.

8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Dec 2015

 

That's right. The problem is not in me and what I see, but in the Government and what it sees and does and I reckon it doesn't do a lot. Mr. Stevens said that economy is moving along nicely... I don't believe him.

 

Not much.

 

An economic think tank again

 

If 0.2% growth in GDP is moving along nicely then I would hate to know what a problem economy looks like. But to suggest the Australian economy will never recover is a bit ridiculous also. If this government doesn't fix it, Australia will give shorty a shot. I am sure he can buy his way out of an economic downturn.

 

Problem economy looks like -4% in GDP growth. Australian economy can recover, but it needs structural changes which nobody wants to do. Why, I don't understand. I'm looking at similar economies in other countries and it's frightening.
You live in WA you see problems on the horizon. Soon the whole country might look the same and that's optimistic. I hope it will not look like South Africa, Brazil or Russia where downturn is terrible a lot worse than in 2008.

 

I live in WA and the economy is virtually already in a recession. I agree with your comments above. What I don't agree with is your position that the Australian economy will never recover. To be clear, I am saying there will be a recession first and a drawn out period of low or no economic growth. After that the economy will recover and go back into a growth cycle. When that will happen is impossible to predict. But to say it will never happen is ridiculous.

Basically what you are saying is that China is the only country in the world that consumes Australian resources. No emerging economy will every want to buy Australian resources. That's a bold prediction but you have no idea whether that is accurate.

The reason people raise India is that it is a growing economy and it will want to buy more Australian resources in the future. This helps grow Australia's GDP and economy. They are not talking about importing goods from India to sell in Australia. That would grow India's GDP.

India could be a key player in Australia's eventual economic recovery because as it's economy grows, it will consume more resources.

 

Over the last financial year, exports from Australia increased by the following percentage:

US - 20.0%
India - 21.0%
Vietnam - 10.2%
UK - 10%
Vietnam - 17%
UAE - 18.8%

Australia's trade in goods and services 2014-15

As a side not,looking at those stats, its criminal, how little economically engaged we are with our 1/4 billion in population neighbour.

 

Oil producing countries that will need a bail out very soon.

Venezuela
Nigeria
Azerbaijan
Russia
Kazakhstan
Saudia Arabia

We are talking about countries that will collapse..which will cause problems for the banking world.....THIS is BIG....

With YELLEN talking negative rates.........this is bad and something we are not being told...

Finally.........very few in the world know if we are headed for a recession or not.......or another GFC......and the few that know are not posting on...PC...so if you are sure no GFC or Recession why not long everything with leverage? or if you think recession is happening why not leverage and short it all?

 

Lucky you are here to tell us @Speede with bold font and all

I'm curious as how you know the few that know the unknown ...aka.. what the future holds.

 

Bank of Japan adopted negative rates this week.

Will negative rates deck Japan’s banks?

A few days ago, I posted a few articles about looming problems in oil/commodity related junk bonds. There is another for anyone interested.

Warning: Half of oil junk bonds could default

Deutsche Bank is looking sickly, as is much of the EU.

Does this mean another GFC.......or are we still in one?

I don't know. I work. I save. Pay my bills. I'm presently enjoying renovating my home. Looking forward to upcoming summer getaway with the family.

I did the same before GFC, during the GFC and expect to continue to do the same afterwards.

I'm not carrying a huge burden of debt. I know that my children are financially safe. I'm not heavily invested in the stock market. I don't plan on selling my home any time some. I know I can ride out whatever storm there may be. And know that I am liquid enough to reinvest when an opportunity presents itself.

 

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

19 Trillion in debt
50 million of the population collect food stamps

 

Not sure what your point was with regards to the US not producing much..but anyhoo..

Debt has been worse and has stabilised - National debt of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

44 million collect food stamps and falling
SNAP Costs and Caseloads Declining | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

 

The reason people raise India is that it is a growing economy and it will want to buy more Australian resources in the future. This helps grow Australia's GDP and economy. They are not talking about importing goods from India to sell in Australia. That would grow India's GDP.

India could be a key player in Australia's eventual economic recovery because as it's economy grows, it will consume more resources.[/QUOTE]

India will never be a key player. People in India don't like to work as Chinese do and the poverty is terrible. The reason India is still not hit hard now is because it didn't go up like Brazil or Russia. There is no other emerging economy that needs and can consume a lot of Australian resources.

I thought you were not waiting for a mining boom soon. I might be wrong.