VIC Geelong

Ok....I'll bite....

2010 Median
Greater Geelong 364k Melbourne 521k

2017 Median
Greater Geelong 494k Melbourne 823k

2020 Median 650k Melbourne 925k

Typically Geelong's cycle ends up with it being 60-70% of Melbourne's value.

I'll bet Newcastle follows Sydney in a similar range.

Oh...another pearl....if Geelong hits a median...of 600k plus and Newie at 700k plus Brissie's current median is about 520k.....don't ya think Brissie has to move based on value and it is bigger than Geelong, Newcastle and Greater Hunter put together...foood food for thought huh??

 

Thanks for sharing your thought process Sash - let's see how it pans out!

I'll be very happy if my Newcomb place can get to 500K by 2020...that'll be close to 80% growth in 3 years! I definitely won't be complaining

 

Well the increase for the median is 494k to 650k...that is a 31% gain.

I think the current median of Newcomb is 345k...so if it just mirrored the median growth...it would be worth about 452k odd. I think if you did better than median say 45%...that would hot the 500k mark...so a real possibility.

This is exactly what happened to my Werribee property....the median of Werribee was something like 275k in 2014...then by 2017 it is something like 440k....a increase of something like 60% increase from median.....

 

My IP2 is about to start being built in AC. Bought the block in Feb for 140k, all up the project will cost 335k. It's a 3/2/2, which are going for 400+ now.

I'm considering finding the cheapest similar block I can now, hopefully 160-170, preferably something that won't title until late 2018 or longer, paying the 5% deposit, and just sitting on it.

But with IP1 already in AC, I'm very wary of that not being diverse enough. I feel like I know the market well, and have built up the contacts to build H&Ls reasonably competitively. But I feel it might be too many eggs in the AC basket. How many is too many in the one area??

 

What size blocks @Jimmylt? Mine's 392sqm at just over $200k bought in the middle of this year. It titles in January.

 

Cannot find anything under 190/200 anymore in AC (good locations).

 

292sqm

 

What's a good location in AC?

 

To me is next to the new town centre and potentially close to schools / parks. Not saying I am right.

 

218 High Street, Belmont, Vic 3216 - Property Details
Sold for $425k. I expected this to go into the 5s.

Over the last couple of weeks (without being on the ground) i've been questioning how the established regions of Geelong are going (Belmont, East Geelong, Highton) in particular. There are properties going for a lot less than what i expected (as above).

 

High Street is a main rd. Belmont is a strange suburb as parts of it are very different. Near the shops on high Street there are big blocks with period homes on them which have great owner occupier appeal and in the zone of Belmont primary. Property near the river also quite desirable. But there are lrg sections of Belmont which aren't in the zone of better rated primary schools or the river and they are significantly cheaper.

Highton also has areas with great differences. Near the river, near the shops, new Highton which has poorer convenience but newer more expensive housing which I think will end up being worth less than the older areas of highton near the shops, schools and river. Just so many variables proving the old markets within markets theory.

East Geelong I suspect attracts less Melbourne buyers due to poor access to the ring road and the need to go through town to access the original fwy entrance.

 

If you know the AC market well and has made some profit then why not consider rinse and repeat?

Quote what Warren Buffet said - "diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing". In his view, studying one or two industries in great depth, learning their pros and cons and using that knowledge to profit on those industries is more lucrative than spreading a portfolio across a broad array of sectors so that gains from certain sectors offset losses from others.

If the AC market has proven working for you and Geelong is still on a rising market - then might as well continue doing what you're doing right

 

How do you go about determining the catchment for Belmont primary school?
I did some google search but no luck.

Thanks

 

I think in this area it is typically the closest government school to your residence. My research indicates that Belmont primary and Roslyn primary are significantly better than Oberon and Oberon south primary statistically. For me I think it's worth being closer to one of these schools.

 

Exaggerated Media Play for the last 6 months (Geelong and Sunbury)

 

Geelong is about to bust. been talking to the agents. Listings through the roof, houses not selling and auctions are passing in left right and centre.

 

Except every house in Geelong West and Newcomb sold last weekend

 

Hmmm...not true...they are selling like hot cakes...everywhere......here ya go....

Sydney investor snaps up Belmont property with lots of potential - realestate.com.au

 

I find that hard to believe. The fundamentals are very strong and many areas are still undervalued IMO

Do you have any data or evidence to back up this statement?

 

Completely the opposite of what people are seeing on the ground.