Crypto GBTC/Grayscale Discounts

I've been watching the discount of the trust lately, sometimes it was as much as 30%.
Daily GBTC Premium/Discount to NAV

A few reports that Grayscale are willing to take the SEC to court if they refuse to allow conversion to an ETF again. I don't know what their chances are but it highlights their determination to push this through at all costs. They've been collecting 2% annual fees for a while on it so they must have a bucket of cash to pursue it.

The background story is that Grayscale used to trade at a premium when it was a monopoly on buying Bitcoin through a share trading account, and that this premium was arbitraged via various Bitcoin loan mechanisms. Then when it wasn't a monopoly and the premium dried up, and the arbitrage dried up, there was no need to issue new shares because it was cheaper to buy on market.

There are various ETFs available (eg Canadian listed), and there is MicroStrategy so Grayscale needs to convert to an ETF that allows redemptions in order to remove the discount.

Curious if anyone is buying their bitcoin via discounted GBTC shares in the hope of the conversion to ETF or a future fund shutdown/redemption to close the discount gap? If it works out, it's an extra 20-30% Bitcoin than otherwise would've had, if it doesn't then you're paying 2% fees while holding and facing possibly the discount getting even bigger.

Also note the same is happening for the Grayscale Ethereum trust (ETHE) that used to have massive premiums, is now at a 20%-ish discount as well. Ethereum is more risky though because the native crypto asset normally earns a 5-9% yield, so holding ETHE is paying 2.5% fees and missing the yield at the same time hoping that the discount game plays out.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) is another Bitcoin play that used to be at a big premium, but now not so much - it's actually an OK buy now I think. It's like a leveraged play since they use cheap corporate debt to buy more Bitcoin. I haven't seen any good valuation resources since it's quite volatile and changes all the time, and I'm not exactly sure of all their debt obligations and T&Cs yet. Though I'll read the annual report for fun soon anyway.

Anyone getting involved in this play for Grayscale or MSTR?

 

Might be talking to myself here, but I've gone into some GBTC along with my other BTC.
IBKR allows purchase of GBTC once you add Pink Sheets OTC Penny Stocks trading permissions.

Grayscale's parent company has been buying up GBTC shares, and they're more likely than me to know something about the future. They may see a good chance of ETF conversion, or some other method to reduce the discount in the future like enabling redemptions.

It's going to require some patience, but I'm going to hold Bitcoin for a long time anyway so may as well play this long game as well.