Free CG report from Hotspotting

Saw this over on ozbargin. Free CG report from hotspotting.com.au and thought some people here might appreciate something else to read.

Can view the pdf directly from here.

 

You might want to read the Copyright statement at the bottom of page 3 before you distribute material online via a direct pdf. Sharing the link for people to subscribe to is different and the report contents might assist some people. I read it yesterday and certainly couldn't see $99 value there. Just as well that it's free

 

I feel for the people who actually paid $99. I have never thought that HS views were of value...

 

Never read one before but yeah I have to agree, there's no insight here, it's just a compilation of historical stats.

 

The report tries to suggest the 'Best locations for long-term growth' are those with the top growth rates over the last 10 years, but this fails to take into account that suburbs won't all have the same price growth cycle (from a timing perspective) i.e. those with the top growth rate over the last 10 years may have just boomed and those with the bottom may be about to follow. I'd prefer to take the contrarian perspective and look at the suburbs/cities with the worst performance of the last 10 years and speculate as to which are best positioned to 'catch-up' with the top performers.

 

Definitely, and worse than that the report offers no insight or predictions only data about what has happened in a particular window of time.

 

Yes I wish I'd known this before 2011 when I made a stoopid buy which began with one of their reports...

 

I wish Terry Ryder would just go away. Everyone knows how badly his predictions have been, I wish he would just stroll off into the sunset with his tail dangling between his legs, instead of still giving out poor advice with his dartboard of hot spot predictions

 

I have purchased numerous reports from Hotspotting and have found them to be very beneficial. That said, I think this report is a waste of time. No where near the level of insight in this compared to the reports that you pay for.

 

This might explain why I can't find any deals that stack up in Perth. 4 of my target suburbs are in the Top 20 list and none are in the Bottom 20 list. Maybe I should start looking at the bottom 20 list

 

Long run data 1987-2015:

Sydney 7.6
Brisbane 7.25
Perth 7.2
Melbourne 6.8
Darwin 6.6
Canberra 5
Hobart 4.6
Adelaide 4.5

Attached long run data chart from 1987 suggests that Sydney can lead cycles => possibly good news for Brisbane/Adelaide.

 

Median suburb prices over specified time periods so often a waste time.

e.g. Vaucluse one of the "worst performing suburbs" - nah, there's just been a change in the sales mix i.e. more high density sales.

Look at some actual sales data & it tells you that house prices have been rising hard and fast, for a very long time. e.g.

95 Hopetoun

11/11/2002 - $2,950,000

17/2/2015 - $5,888,000

174 Hopetoun

22/4/2001 – $3,350,000

4/8/2014 - $5,635,000

6 The Crescent

26/3/1997 - $1,565,000

19/2/2000 - $2,250,000

29/11/2005 - $3,250,000

8/5/2015 - $5,225,000

104 Old South Head

13/12/2004 – $1,150,000

24/2/2015 - $2,560,000

etc. etc.