Forecasts and Predictions...????

Anyone want to have a crack at the next 12months?

 

Prices down.

 

I think all property markets in Australia will feel the impact of current financial climate which is tightening, if you cant borrow money you can not buy = oversupply

Same goes for markets that look cheap, you still have that old chestnut, can you source finance?

 

For me forecasting the next 12months is far more difficult compared to back in 2016 because:

• Further APRA measures still need to wash through. Tougher to secure finance
• Where Sydney and Melbourne are in the cycle. They appear to be over the hump rather than in a rising market. Hard to assess what the "correction" is going to be.
• Shifting in sentiment. Just look at mass media. Lots of doom & gloom.

Crystal balling for the next 12months:
Sydney: 0%
Melbourne: 3%
Hobart: 4%
Brisbane: 5%
Adelaide: 2%
Perth: -3%

General housing, not house or unit market in particular.

Don't think the "P&I cliff" will play a major role in the next 12months

 

Thanks for the start. I would make some small changes -

Sydney: 4% I'm interested what the FHB stamp duty changes will do to the market
Brisbane: 0-2% Not sure if there's anything in the pipeline to change it from the current cycle.
Hobart: 5-6% Not sure why, but reading the PC tea leaves

 

Whats peoples thought on Canberra?

 

Canberra is nice on a sunny day but too hot in Summer.

 

+ too cold in winter! And winter is too long. Spring is only about a week.

 

What is this canberra you speak of... Is that a town in australia?

 

nahh

just some fog in the lowlands

 

Sydney -1% (sigh of relief). Lack of stock under 600K. Thetefore, units to keep turning over, therefore plateau
Melbourne outer 5% Higher stamp duty = greater savings. Cheaper prices, more demand.
Brisbane 6% (party time)
Adelaide 4%
Hobart 6%
Darwin 1%
Perth 3% (great opportunity for fhbs - July 1 begins slow upcycle)

Overall, investors will start to sell off; fhbs will buy up. Hopefully, the balance is maintained and we aren't watching massive homelessness of the under-classes on the nightly news in 12 months time.

 

We should definitely check out these predictions in December 2017....its flagged, lets see what happens and who got it right or wrong.... I have no idea.

 

Nfi. It will be interesting to see if AMP really are the canary in the coal mine re APRA changes.

My guess is that Markets across Oz will probably flat-line early next year, while people work out what the hell just happened, and realise that they are going to need to double their deposits to get a loan.

 

If they can get loans?

 

Exactly, though I hope it doesn't get to that!

 

Not cold on the north shore Property Report for 53 Hillview Street, Hornsby Heights NSW 2077

Last sold 2011 for $920,000 and just sold for $1,655,000

 

No surprises.....this is what we call a boom cycle.. lets watch and wait over next 5 years, flag this one, owners have offloaded, taken profits

 

Fast Forward...... 2017.....predictions...predictions and more predictions....

I like to read what the gurus or so called experts have to say and whether they actually got it right

Predictions 2017