Forecasts and Predictions...????

Atlanta - 15%+ and rising

 

Sydney + 4%
Melbourne + 7%
Brisbane + 4%
Adelaide + 5%
Hobart + 5%
Perth - 3%
Darwin - 5%

 

But when you consider how expensive Sydney is... Sydney homes probably gain as much as anywhere else in pure $ terms .

Eg 1mill + 4% = $1,040,000.

That's 40k straight up!

 

not that simple

it will be dependent on a few things, volume/how many you purchased in Syd will be the big one? entry point, product, area, % growth

Some blue suburbs in Melb East have very high entry and growth has been massive. buy 3 of these and you cleaned up. Its all relative to above items I mentioned

 

So many factors, volume, leverage, yield, maintenance, entry/exist cost - list goes on.

Thread is more about shooting at a dart board some predictions for the year.
And of course celebrating the winner next year as the property guru that will now charge for their predictions

 

Brady

unfortunately most get the predictions wrong, I think now Syd is having its last horrah and leaping ahead of Melb....
If anyone is in a position to access equity they should be jumping in now before it's too late


MTR

 

I reckon nobody has a perfect crystal ball but we can make a guess.

 

Those 40k will not even cover the cost of stamp duty on a 1 mil. property.

 

Mines broken so your all going to be wrong

 

Thats the thing about playing in the 'houses' markets of sydney and melbourne... good luck even getting an 80/20 lvr loan on a $1Mill house in either of these cities!

Plus the stamp duties are a killer. All that jumping through hoops and for what? A paultry 2% yield that effectively is youe death sentence for any further new loans/purchases.

Personally, I'd much rather look at buying 3 houses for $1mill in tier #2 cap cities (i.e. not syd or mel), at decent yields that ALSO offer good cap growth prospects. Doing it this way gives me options for now and options for later too

 

... but there are many affordable suburbs in Melb, west.

Also, why would it be difficult sourcing finance $1M? 80/20 LVR?

 

Sounds like South Coast NSW

 

@MTR you might get that first loan and buy that first $1mill property, sure. But what then after that? I doubt many lenders except for the peppers, liberties, IMB's of the world would touch you after that. The property would have a 2 or 3% gross yield, so the lenders are unlikely to want to give the average borrower on average personal salary incomes many more funds.

From there you are left with a hugely negatively geared property that, whilst will have awesome capital growth, will be harder to really do much more with. After your prime income-producing years wither, you'll be left with (at best) a slightly negative or perhaps neutrally geared asset. Unless you plan to extract equity and live off that each year (LOE) I doubt this is viable/sustainable into retirement.

I dont doubt that $400k houses exist in Melbourne suburbs (and possibly some very far flung sydney suburbs 60km out if you are lucky...), but the case i am making is that I just dont understand those who have a strategy to buy these $1mill things and actually expect to grow a portfolio of many of these kinds of acquisitions (unless they are on a salary of $400k+ per year, perhaps).

I think it is way smarter to build a portfolio of $300-$500K houses in good CG areas. Just so many options for later on. Especially if you buy houses with reno potential or decent frontages for later subdivision or development.

 

good points.
I don't think many investors would be buying $1M+ IPs unless its primary residence.
I think @sash is building land and house sub $400K.

 

Yep I'm doing it at $330/$360k H&L but that is like 60k out of Cbd.

 

Incorrect. I have used my crystal ball only twice- to accurately predict bolt will win 100 and 200m. Which he did..so I'm 100%correct so far

 

actually sub 350k...last one was 260k for 3x1x1 and one before 301k....next one 325k...all turnkey. cheap one in geelong one north of melb 30 klms and other 55 klms se

 

On old buys under construction now or just titling those figures are very possible. I am settling two lots now that will cost me $310 turnkey 4/2/2, but land was purchased a year ago and the build was locked in a while ago too.

New stuff is a bit harder I'm finding 330k-$360k turnkey 3/2/2-4/2/2. Mind you I like to upgrade quite a few things so they are not super povo pack come resale if necessary.

 

Agree.....build costs have gone up 10k in the last 8 months....ridiculous....also well priced land is rare as hens teeth at the moment!

 

Reviving this thread to see how my predictions went.

15months from initial guesses, YOY growth (according to CoreLogic)

Sydney: 11.07%
Melbourne: 11.52%
Brisbane (excluding GC): 2.33%
Adelaide: 2.89%
Perth: -3.82%
Hobart: 5.8%

Seems I was too pessimistic on Sydney and too bullish on Brissy. Everything else was pretty close