Forecasts and Predictions...????

I think a lot of people that post here for "predictions" own property in certain places and they live in the dreamland that for some strange reason that area is going to grow.

Lets say Sydney is going to be negative (take a number) lets say -20%, in that scenario, has it occurred to you why Brisbane or Adelaide be going up?

Sydney has a job market 10 times bigger than Adelaide and Brisbane combined
Sydney has a number of universities far larger and more reputable than any other city in the country
Finally Sydney has the biggest infrastructure spend and expansion than any other city in the country.

If Sydney went backwards you better run for cover and sell your Brisbane properties because they will be falling much faster than anywhere in Sydney.

 

History suggests otherwise.

 

You Brisbane hater you

 

check out the Yip rp data - i posted some graphs on annerley and camp hill on anothet post. Similar for quite a few brisbane suburbs. Those graphs show steady growth over 3 years - certainly not a 'strange reason' ...its a fact.

 

Adelaide: +
Brisbane: ++
Canberra: +
Hobart: +
Melbourne: ++
Perth: -
Sydney: +

 

Ummm MTR, for the sake of the question, see below... It's only March, we still have 9 months to go. You know as well as the next person how quickly things can turn.

I picked some different numbers because it was different to everyone else. Do I think I'll be right, no. But, please let the next 9 months go by before you tell me I was wrong

WHAT ARE YOU PREDICTIONS FOR 2016???
We can review it at the end of the year

Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Hobart
Perth

 

Yep. The price gap between Adelaide in comparison to Sydney and Melbourne is at its highest level since 2004. Add in an urban growth boundary, which will restrict land supply and it's not hard to see why Adelaide is in line for future growth.

 

This is why I think Perth is almost at bottom... it's had its big hit..... and with NRAS opportunities at least, now it's time to jump in...as you'll buy yourself a 10 year period with $0 out of pocket....

 

bump..... time to review predictions, it is August 2016 only another quarter and the year is over.

Anyone want to comment on what has actually happened to date??

 

Thanks for shating the Corelogic video MTR.
My thoughts:
Houses: I reckon its going to be a 2 horse race at the end of 2016 with Melbourne and Sydney neck and neck. The question to me is which will have more momentum over the next few months, I'm not sure. Sydney is expensive, but demand is still there.
Then
Canberra
Hobart
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Darwin

Units:
Not so sure on exact placings:
Canberra
Sydney
Hobart
Adelaide
Melbourne
Brisbane
Perth
Darwin

I could have called some of it wrong, but it will be interesting to see where we end up after calendar year 2016 is over.

 

Hi Gockie
The bottom 2 - Perth and Darwin are still slip sliding, though I believe Darwin has dropped further.

Something interesting, Tassie market is moving, inner city, I don't know what is driving this market, have not looked closely but perhaps it will be the star performer in 2017.

MTR

 

Yes on Tassie. @C-mac put together a good thread on Tassie and I think he explained Hobart's drivers really well.

 

Yes, saw that, and there is a local posting and there is evidence that inner city has already started moving, no predictions its already happening.....

 

Ok, going back to an older post here... @sash has had that much influence! And I'm sure it's continuing!

Great thread @MTR and great comments. Good to have a half way visit and I'll be keeping a reminder of this thread to revitalise in Jan 17

 

I predict that no matter what the markets do..whether up, down, left or right I'll be able to find good deals somewhere in this huge land and continue to expand. I never rely on markets doing well in order for me to do well. The deal for me has to make sense from day 1 and any short term growth is just a bonus, never the plan. All the action takes place before signing for me. That's just my approach.

 

Melbourne clearance rate at 80% this w/end. Seems this market is ticking over nicely, shortage of stock

 

Houses and units combined;

Sydney - by a whisker
Melbourne
Adelaide - by a whisker
Canberra
Hobart - by a whisker
Brisbane / gc
Perth
Darwin

 

The great unwashed won't believe this! You are spot on about Officer.

Also the North....the Trillium Estate in Mickleham has now sold out....in record time....they are now selling another estate about 4 klms away and it is also going well....I bought my block for 125k...my house will complete in Oct. ...that total cost to build the house was 176k...so for 301k ..I have a house & land. My mate just told me that his house which he is build for 370k....is now worth 450k (double story)....a smaller house sold for 435k...not bad for 1 years paper shuffling. He also got 15k grant from govt as a first home buyer.

By the way my smaller 17.5 sqm home will be worth 360k plus. .....land there assuming you can get it is now 175k plus construction of a 17.5sq home is now 185k plus...turnkey.

 

Sydney 1%
Melbourne 7%
Brisbane 4%
Adelaide 3%
Perth -5%
Hobart 5%
Darwin -3%
Texas 15%