Forecasts and Predictions...????

That's almost exactly what I'd go for if I had to make a call on capital city medians. I'd just flip the Adelaide and Brisbane numbers.

 

I don't think that Sydney is going to hit negative % this year.
Melbourne to be the clear winner (>7% due to outer South East, North and West) followed by...wait for it...Hobart

@MTR what is your forecast (in %)?

 

We are already heading towards April 2016 (first quarter) and Melbourne is proving to be the strongest market no prediction here its FACT. I don't see anything changing this year, I expect double digit growth. I am bullish on Melb middle ring - south East, anything with large land component will probably do very well as its becoming harder for developers to source land.

Sydney, perhaps modest growth, but there are areas that are slipping now and negative sentiment will possibly impact further on this market.

Brisbane - will continue to grow but not sure about %, or which certain pockets will outperform. I am not watching this market. I am sure many on PC will know where to buy for performance?

Adelaide - will start to move but once again not watching this market, whether it achieves double digit growth will be the question??

Tassie ??? don't know ? don't watch this market

Perth - will continue to fall, we have seen 10% falls already (2015), regardless what stats tell you. Further modest decline perhaps in 2016-2017??


We should review this at the end of the year

 

Sydney: 3-5%
Melbourne 5-7%
Brisbane 8-14%
Adelaide 2-3%
Hobart 2-3%
Perth -2-0%

 

Can you please also add Canberra to your list? Thanks

 

Sorry, I can not edit my original post. But yes Canberra should have been included.

Anyone care to provide an update, I have not been watching this market, be interested to find out what is happening here.

MTR

 

Sydney 1% Expensive but stock numbers low, suppy limited by geography
Melbourne 5%Expensive but not compared to Syd. Similar fundamentals but more available land.
Brisbane 4%Improving economy, too much stock
Adelaide 4%Economic headwinds, affordable
Hobart no idea
Perth 0% must find a bottom soon?

 

Yes. Bottom will be November 1st, 2016.

 

Is that a prediction or wishful thinking?

 

Pandering to/imploring the Cycle Gods

 

The benefit Melbourne has got going for it is that it receives net interstate migration. Sydney increases its population by 100k each year; however, when it comes to net migration they actually lose residents as locals move interstate to places, such as Melbourne. If I was a young person in Sydney I know I certainly would be making a move interstate to somewhere more affordable. Perth boomed on the back of the mining boom, population growth, and interstate migration. Now that residents are moving back we’ve seen increased vacancies, and capital growth coming to a standstill. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sydney goes through a similar correction, particularly with population growth slowing and APRA/foreign investment scrutiny. Just my 2 cents.

 

On what basis do you think adelaide will post the same CG as brisbane? Brisbane's fundamentals are significantly better than adelaides and are improving at a rate significantly more than adelaide.

 

Sydney 4-6%
Melb 10-12%
Brisbane 7-9%

Don't watch the other markets enough to comment.

 

Daily Indices | CoreLogic RP Data

On a quarter by quarter basis Brisbane hasn't gone anywhere, whilst Adelaide has risen. On a year on year basis Brisbane has only outperformed Adelaide by 1%. This is despite SA having the highest unemployment rate in the country. Only time will tell.

 

Just yesterday or the day before was there an article thhqt showed bris rising 14 consecutive quarters.
Look at yip reports (i belive they too use rpdata) to see evidence of this.

 

Sydney: -14%
Melbourne: -8%
Brisbane: 16%
Adelaide: 15%
Hobart: 20%
Perth: 6%

It was hard typing in these... goes against what I really think. Maybe I'll get one right

 

Hehe... you already have Melb wrong, its currently top performer for 2016

 

I'm happy for that prediction to be wrong as I have a bigger asset base in Brisbane but the 2 cities growth has been remarkably similar over the last 15 years including last year.

Some inner/middle ring suburbs especially on the southside have grown 20% in 2 years no doubt.

I agree that the economic fundamentals are different but it's not that simple IMO. What might hold Brisbane back from out performing is the massive amount of new supply coming on line. Most of this is in the form of new unit blocks, a drive around the cbd and inner city suburbs is telling. A building boom is taking place, how this plays out is yet to be determined.
The positives are unemployment falling and I think we will see a pick up in population growth, interstate migration will most likely pick up. Thats how the previous boom in 03 played out. The unknown is what effects APRA changes have on potential interstate investor's.
I think 4% is at the lower end of expectations but I'll be happy if it's wrong.

 

I think the quarterly index has some value and the yearly figures but the daily figures... I don't know why RPData does this? Its not the stockmarket.

 

For me...the predictions of how much each city may grow is not really as important as how specific suburbs are doing and how they may grow in value and then identifying opportunity this way. There are areas within all these cities that will outperform and underperform different areas within their own cities and when compared to other cities. So while Adelaide may see a 5% increase and Brisbane 3.4 just as an example, a suburb in Brisbane may see 15% increase compared to a suburb in Adelaide that may see 3%.

Just my opinion.