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Forecasts and Predictions...????

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by MTR, 23rd Mar, 2016.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Interesting to look back at the predictions for the last 12 months... some winners, most losers.


    SQM Research around the money
    Correctly tipped capital city house prices to rise between 7 and 12 percent over the year and also got it right on the two biggest housing markets, forecasting Sydney house prices to rise between 11 and 15 percent and 7 to 13 percent in Melbourne.

    But they were too bullish on Perth (growth of 2-5 percent) and Brisbane (7-11 percent).

    Domain Group is way off the mark
    Domain Group’s prediction that houses would track inflation (about 2%) looks a little silly now.
    Dr Andrew Wilson was a touch pessimistic about the effect of the weaker economic conditions

    Fitch rates poorly
    Credit rating agency Fitch was way out on its 2015 forecast of 4%.

    CoreLogic RP-Data all muddled
    These guys expected growth in Sydney and Melbourne to slow, and for Brisbane to lead the capitals. That’s pretty much exactly what didn’t happen.

    John McGrath misses Sydney surge
    Too downbeat on Sydney at the start of 2015, expecting it to slow, “but not go backwards.” He was around the money in predicting a solid year for Queensland though.

    But that actually gives you a lot of room to move. Because almost no one remembers what anyone was saying a year ago. And even if you get it way wrong, you can always tell some story about people responding unexpectedly well to the new government, or fears around emerging markets, or whatever.....

    WHAT ARE YOU PREDICTIONS FOR 2016???
    We can review it at the end of the year:p


    Sydney
    Melbourne
    Brisbane
    Adelaide
    Hobart
    Perth
     
    Last edited: 23rd Mar, 2016
  2. Befuddled

    Befuddled Well-Known Member

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    I'll have a stab

    Sydney: +4%
    Melbourne: +10%
    Brisbane: +6%
    Adelaide: +3%
    Hobart: +5%
    Perth: -4%
     
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  3. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Sydney 30%
    Melbourne 25%
    Brisbane 48.9%
    Adelaide 4%
    Hobart SNR
    Perth -20%




    Well I can dream cant I...........
     
  4. EN710

    EN710 Well-Known Member

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    @Leo2413 That's ambitious :D
    Sydney 30% - no prob! But I will start hearing more complaints in my network how this caused by the Chinese and how the price going to totally drop 50% or more next year or so
    Melbourne 25% - not yet please, wait another 2 years please
    Brisbane 48.9% - I wish!
    Adelaide 4% - just make sure the shark diving price hasn't increase
    Hobart SNR - where is this?
    Perth -20% - don't care

    :rolleyes:
     
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  5. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    I dont think its going to be uniform.
    Sydney is much more uniform in its growth than brisbane. Quite a few brisbane areas will do low double digit wheras others in brisbane (same geographic boundaries eg bcc) wont even come close. Sydney and perhaps melb as well are more uniform where most in the city councils show roughly the same growth % number
     
    Last edited: 23rd Mar, 2016
  6. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Those bad, bad commies! It's all their fault! :p
     
  7. Chilliblue

    Chilliblue Well-Known Member

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  8. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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    on my way
    don't know. planning to buy & hold wherever and whenever I can as long as number looks good for me.
     
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  9. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    He may be right. If you call it often enough, you are bound to jag it sometime. But really hasn't this guy blown his credibility with his past failed predictions?
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I actually think he may finally be close on the money??? oops that's a prediction and most get it wrong as you can see:)

    I wont say the R word but the property game wont be what it is today, boom markets don't go forever, as we are currently seeing ....Perth falling, Darwin falling, Sydney peaked......

    Not wishing to be negative, but not silly enough to stick my head in the ground either.
     
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  11. Marty McDonald

    Marty McDonald Mortgage broker Business Member

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    dart board

    Sydney + 6%
    Melbourne + 7%
    Brisbane + 3%
    Adelaide + 8%
    Hobart +11%
    Perth - 4%
     
  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Seems most so far agree that Perth will continue to fall...:(
     
  13. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Don't you want it to fall before you buy again....?
     
  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I want Perth to rise, but hell will freeze over before this happens:p
     
  15. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Well look on the bright side.. if it rises you'll be happy, if it falls ill be happy.. so at least 1 of us will be happy in the end. :oops:
     
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  16. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    Attached Files:

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  17. Adele

    Adele Well-Known Member

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    I think part of the reason for Melbourne's continual economy growth is VIC's Significant Investor Visa. Applicants must invest $5 million to be eligible. Although this class of visa restricts from direct property investment, the money coming in will still have a ripple effect in property prices. Maybe that is why Melbourne is doing better?
     
  18. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Bring it on @Leo2413

    Raining-money.gif
     
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  19. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    Why would this be specific to Victoria? You don't need a visa to enter Vic last time I checked (or have they finally found a way to keep those dirty Sydney siders out?).

    Blacky
     
  20. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Sydney: -1%
    Melbourne: +5%
    Brisbane: +7%
    Adelaide: +4%
    Hobart: +6%
    Perth: -3%
     
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