First Time Homebuyers Priced Out of the Market, 90% Can't Afford

Me too. Gran nailed it

 

You clearly need to learn more about Melbourne.

Dandenong (South), Epping (North) and Sunshine or Werribiee (West).

http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/58000-jobs-back-on-track-as-east-werribee-precinct-revived

I can all these places becoming satellite cities.

 

wouldnt call any of them potential cbds, just smaller cities that are no bigger then a larger suburb,

you might as well list heidlelberg, doncaster, springvale, thomastown in those lists

 

Heidelberg or maybe Greensborough a hospital or nearby and significant commercial properties (not just retail comm) and did contemplate them but I am no town planner, thomastown I wouldn't include more industrial.

Would you count Logan as another CBD for Brisbane? It is also rather just another suburb.

Otherwise you look at Geelong if you wanted another town with a CBD.

I believe the suburbs mention would be something similar to a satellite city or a suburb near them in the future.

 

I wouldnt count logan just yet, there is high population, lots of shops, buzzing activity, but I dont see any offices or any white collar buildings,

thats what I consider to be a secondary cbd

my 2c

id also consider geelong a 2nd cbd yes, however, I dont think its a thriving one to be honest, seems quite lifeless to be honest, a bit like docklands

 

This.

 

Some of the comments in this thread are just ridiculous.

Yes there is an affordability crisis, no doubt about that. If you've been in the Sydney market then just ask yourself this: Who exactly have you been selling to for the past 3 years? Is it:

1. First home buyers able to afford the median price
2. Other Oz investors who are looking to buy in the belief there won't be a correction
3. "Students" on "temporary visas"
4. Overseas buyers

From what I've seen personally, it has been mostly #2-#4. Most first home buyers have been purchasing far out west - with a very small minority in the inner west/eastern/northern suburbs thanks to high paying jobs/mum&dad bank. Now even the house in the western suburbs are becoming out of reach!

This is a market that is now sustained purely on investors. It's a game of hot potato, and the sooner someone gets burnt the better because thats when I'll be able to pick up potatoes on the cheap!

 

Good luck, makes a nice epitaph; ''just waiting for those house prices to drop.''

 

True...

 

Logan is much more another suburb than 2nf cbd. Brisbane is too small to have a second cbd..

 

So why are the commebt ridiculous?

Becauze you thibk there isnt a affordability crisis??

Or its just as easy as it was in the baby boomers and we are all spoilt brats?

So which is it?

 

Because there is a mass denial that there isn't an affordability crisis and that FHBers are still the majority purchasers. Yet the reality is that most transactions are between investors or investors and overseas buyers.

So how can there NOT be housing affordability when FHBer participation is reduced?

 

Lol, Perth and Adelaide are down. Banks are going to continue to tighten. And I'm betting I've got a lot more time to wait it out than the rest of the people holding

 

There is more markets than just the Sydney market but also why is a FHB purchasing at the median price.

Median - denoting or relating to a value or quantity lying at the midpoint of a frequency distribution of observed values or quantities, such that there is an equal probability of falling above or below it.

So lets pretend each person will purchase 3 houses in their lifetime, the median house in this persons life will be house number 2.

So if FHB are buying their second house first who is buying the first houses? I don't see me selling my first house to move further away until I downsize or come into financial hardships.

 

Newtown was cheaper than Fairfield and Marrickville slightly pricier.. Why would anybody live in Fairfield when they could live in Newtown or Marrickville lol

 

well said.

 

A large part of my business is helping fhb get into the market. In melbourne $15,000 gets them into a new home in the outer suburbs. Purchase price $300 to $350ish. It's a big drive into town, there won't be any capital growth for years, but it certainly gets them in the market.

 

All of this just adds to my original point, which is that: FHBers aren't the ones holding the market up as they were during the FHOG era. Which raises the next set of questions:

1. If FHBers aren't buying at the median, then who is (IMO its foreign & native investors)
2. Do those buyers have the same attributes that FHBers had when they were holding up the market i.e. do they also have a need for shelter?
3. Will those buyers be there forever?
4. If not, what will make them flee?
5. Will this growth be sustainable if those buyers decide Sydney housing is no longer a good deal or aren't able to purchase i.e. more investor restrictions?

 

I see otherwise...
I've know of several FHB who have been able to secure homes in the last 1-2 years. The question comes down to how willing you are to try before you just give up and say its too hard and what you are prepared to sacrifice. Not everyone can get the 3 bedroom on a 600sqm block. None of them had financial assistance, it was just saving up prior to getting married. All property purchases were between $500-$600k.

Gotta love the hot potato and those waiting for prices for come down... should be interesting. I've lost count how many times I've heard this and those people are still waiting to buy their a property.

Prices do come down a bit, but generally just stay flat. Not everyone actually needs to sell so they'll just hold on until the next upswing.

 

FHBers have never been holding up the market, they have on average been about 24%(now down to 15% I believe) of the market over the last 20 or so years.

You're ignoring ppor upsizers and downsizers and relocaters who are neither investors nor foreigners.