First Sign of property downturn’s negative impact on economy

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190103/pdf/441n2t49c1thky.pdf

Nervously waiting for updates from other major retailers.

 

How long has property been falling for myer?

 

Comparing apples with oranges. Myer has been issuing profit downgrade for years. Kathmandu only had a upbeat trading update 6 weeks ago

 

I think there’s already been a few signs of this already (growth data) but more and more data may come out to support this over the next few months.

 

But that is a huge amount of floor space to fill if a Myer closes up I can imagine it would take quite a while to fill it with tenants

 

Certain types of data have been pointing in this direction for years.
Its just taking a while to understand the problem and some of the problems are interrelated with other issues that then flows into other areas.
The fact that the RBA cannot raise interest rates to normal levels is a very big red flag.
The main issue is that over indebted households see really low rates as a good thing without realising it leaves the country in a very vulnerable position should the economy worsen.
All we are seeing now is a continuation of households in Australia (en masse) not spending enough money (especially in retail) and not prepared to change jobs if their employer wont give them a pay rise,but who would if there were carrying to much debt,and risked losing a permanent position with a casual job that has no leave entitlements and being let go the same day with no notice.

 

Not sure it's the first...a few have been sounding for a few months now:

The only thing saving Australian car sales right now is taxpayers' money

 

Eh, the new car industry is not much different to any other retail industry Australia now that cars are no longer built here. Australia's value add consists of a few off-road aftermarket accessory manufacturers and dealers arranging for cars to be trucked in from the port. Surely new car sales aren't as consequential to the economy as they used to be.
At least if everybody keeps their old cars on the road, the mechanical and spare parts industry will stay busy.

 

My understanding is they use car sales as an indicator of economic confidence, since they are the next most expensive purchase after houses. When the average consumer is feeling flush, they tend to buy/upgrade more often and vice versa.

I could be wrong.

 

This is correct, I believe same thing happens with jet skis and HSVs at mining towns lol

 

For someone on 80K a year and has not seen good wage growth since 2012 they would be getting close to 10-15k missing from their paypackets annually.
That missing 15k would virtually let them trade in their old car and buy a small to mid sized one year old Korean car in most of our capital cities.

 

One US president - Ronald Reagan? - asked to be kept appraised of production figures from cardboard carton suppliers since he reckoned them as the best guide to where things were headed. But that was before nearly everything came from China - shipping rates may now be the key indicator.

 

Got nothing to do with Australian cars or manufacturing... its all cars no matter where they are made. If the economy is doing well people will be more confident, have more money to spend on discretionary items, such as upgrade their car.

Tracks and leads economic downtrends very well...

 

Gotcha