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Fear mongering in the media has started - article

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Greyghost, 23rd Oct, 2015.

  1. Greyghost

    Greyghost Well-Known Member

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  2. D.T.

    D.T. Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Quick, the sky is falling!
     
  3. chylld

    chylld Well-Known Member

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  4. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    @Greyghost, what do you mean Fear mongering in the media has started? There have been bubble collapse stories for years. E.g.

    Australian housing market facing 'bloodbath' collapse: economists

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...bath-collapse-economists-20150622-ghu8a6.html

    We are in the biggest housing bubble in the history of the universe and that bubble has been forming for 20 years. Really???

    This is interesting: Perth is headed for a prolonged slump.

    http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...ded-for-a-prolonged-slump-simon-pressley.html

    A prolonged slump in a prolonged bubble? It's interesting when you add it all up... that it doesn't add up! :)
     
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  5. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    More fear. More properties for sale. More supply. More pressure on prices. Attack!
     
  6. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    The more things change the more they stay the same.
     
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  7. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    What I don't understand is that since 1880, Australian property has seen 10 boom/bust cycles, prices go up, prices go down. This is not new!
     
  8. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Relax everyone, crisis over, we have until 2017y... :)

    According to Mr David, 2017 is when it will all start to unravel, and it will start in the West. If the Perth market crashes, that will begin to affect the banking system’s ability to lend.
    “It’s going to be a disaster. By the end of 2017 the housing market will crash, and at least one of the big four banks will either be bailed out, go bust or be nationalised,” he said.
    http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...bble-pop-in-2017/story-fndban6l-1227365483287

    So we just sit back and relax until then right? :D
     
  9. Beelzebub

    Beelzebub Well-Known Member

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    My concern is if there is a self fulfilling prophesy if the doom and gloom in the papers gets to a point of saturation? Lack of confidence begins to override fundamentals
     
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  10. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps..yes. This has happened in the stock market as well, especially during the GFC. Inherently good companies in good markets got smashed well below their fair value and fundamentals based on overwhelming and sometimes unjustified pessimism. However, they were the first to come out of it and the strongest to come out of it as well.
     
  11. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I agree. I think that economic downturns are always exacerbated by a lack of confidence which may be disproportionate to fundamentals. I think at this point this is inevitable. But really, Australia has experienced strong growth in the prices of houses over quite a long time period. It was never going to last. The property cycles continue.
     
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  12. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Refer to the extract Nostradamus. "There will be feast and famine with the graziers going hungry. El Nino will rear his ugly head as all others bury theirs. Interest rates will rise and the bankers will feast. A bloodbath in the ol'druie and Lizzie will rejoice".
     
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  13. juzzy

    juzzy Well-Known Member

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    POTY!
     
  14. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    I had to look up POTY - I guess my first find "playmate of the year" wasn't quite it :)
     
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  15. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I subscribed to their "newsletter" because I like the way they structure their marketing material. Anyway, I was curious about them, so read some online reviews from real customers. Their emails go straight into my spam folder ;)
     
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  17. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I paid for a subscription November last year. Have done relatively well with their picks. These are the six holdings I have acquired as a consequence of reading their newsletter and advice.
    • Holding #1 13.10% return ( purchased Nov 14, 11 months )
    • Holding #2 -10.18% return ( purchased Nov 14, 11 months )
    • Holding #3 21.46% return ( purchased May 15, 5 months )
    • Holding #4 17.2% return ( purchased Nov 14, 11 months )
    • Holding #5 41.3% return ( purchased Nov 14, 11 months )
    • Holding #6 8.94% return ( purchased May 15, 5 months )
    ( Returns above are since first purchase and include capital gains combined with dividends. All holdings above are ASX stocks so there are no currency gains. )

    Each purchase above was for an equal outlay.

    I selected some stocks from their buy recommendations and have done quite well. I like the way the recommendations are presented and discussed. The logic for these recommendations made sense to me. I don't have the interest or the time to wade through annual returns and company prospectus documents.

    The thing that irks me though is a Real Estate Doom and Gloom article ( with no disclosure ) to push their vested interests. Despite the good returns above I personally find that I want to tread much more carefully with share investing. It is easier to lose big sums of money at the whim of the sharemarket and global events ( property to me is much less volatile - in the right locations ).
     
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  18. Marty McDonald

    Marty McDonald Mortgage broker Business Member

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    Out of interest how do your returns compare to the ASX in general over the same time. Dividends + CG.
     
  19. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    Hi Marty

    I've followed MF since their inception in Australia in Dec. 2011.

    MFs total return on their recommended shares is 57.6% as opposed to the AXS return
    of 15.9%
     
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  20. Bryan Loughnan

    Bryan Loughnan Well-Known Member

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    "The Australian real estate market is in the grip of the biggest housing bubble in the nation's history"...... more reporters and economists generalising. There are probably more than a dozen different property markets in Sydney alone - yet here they are quoting Australia as one property market. Please....