Falling home loans point to further drop in house prices

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by REinvestmentlearner, 18th Jan, 2019.

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  1. REinvestmentlearner

    REinvestmentlearner Member

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  2. AnDy62

    AnDy62 Active Member

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  3. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    20bps hey....
     
  4. AnDy62

    AnDy62 Active Member

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    Virgin Money variable rate.
     
  5. KinG3o0o

    KinG3o0o Well-Known Member

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    0.2%.......

    seriously ? you complaining about 0.2%
     
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  6. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Exactly.
     
  7. AnDy62

    AnDy62 Active Member

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    I'm not complaining, I was stating a fact about the marketplace.

    I have been expecting rate rises and am neither surprised or 'complaining'.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th Jan, 2019
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  8. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: 18th Jan, 2019
  9. Ronald86

    Ronald86 Well-Known Member

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  10. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Inflation adjusted. 15-20% Combined capitals, 20%+ Melb & Syd. Text below:

    "The bank is forecasting Australian home prices will fall by 15 to 20% in real, inflation adjusted terms, or 10 to 15% for actual nominal prices. It says that given the national downturn has been concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne, the price declines in these cities is “likely to be in excess of 20%, on average”.

    The bank see further downward pressure on housing credit growth as “likely” in the period ahead, partially reflecting the timing of the final report from Australia’s Financial Services Royal Commission on February 1. It also notes that with the pipeline of new housing supply still strong, it will likely exceed demand over the coming quarters, further “weighing on prices” during this period.


    Given its outlook for prices and approvals, Morgan Stanley says the only question now is whether the housing downturn will spillover into other non-housing areas of the economy.
    "
     
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  11. Ronald86

    Ronald86 Well-Known Member

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    Would like to see more articles/ data breakdowns at a suburb/region level as it would give more meaningful results as opposed to blanket averages. ...
     
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  12. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    I agree. I've found that data harder to come by, but I posted this in another thread, it has some suburb region data.

    A few weeks old, via corelogic, price falls to date:

    [​IMG]

    And Moody's/Corelogics recent 2019 forecast indicates they they believe the "blue chip" areas will continue to be worst hit:

    MELBOURNE HOUSE VALUE FORECASTS 2019

    Inner: -4.3%

    Inner East: -11.2%

    Inner South: -10.2%

    North East: -4%

    North West: -4.2%

    Outer East: -4.2%

    South East: -4.6%

    West: -4.6%

    Mornington Peninsula: -4.5%
     
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  13. Ronald86

    Ronald86 Well-Known Member

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    Beauty that's the one. Is this corelogic report open to all or do you need to be a paid member? All articles should have this imo :)
     
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  14. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    I think you have to pay for complete data access, I know they do a monthly update for free though. And third parties with access to the date like AFR, Business Insider and Macro Business, share graphs/charts made using corelogic's data at pretty regular intervals. That is where I dig it out from.
     
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  15. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    And the most recent corelogic data I've seen compiled:

    In the week ended 17 January 2019, the CoreLogic 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets,down another 0.35%:

    [​IMG]
    Values fell across all major markets:


    [​IMG]
    The quarterly decline has steepened to 3.13%, with Sydney, Melbourne and Perth suffering heavy losses:

    [​IMG]

    Over the past 12 months, home values have fallen by 6.9%, again driven by Sydney, Melbourne and Perth:

    [​IMG]
    The next chart plots price growth across the major capitals, which shows prices falling in Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth, whereas they are rising slowly elsewhere:

    [​IMG]
    As shown below, dwelling values have fallen by 7.8% since their most recent peak, led by Sydney (-11.8%), Melbourne (-8.0%) and Perth (-16.2%):

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    My desktop research using REA app and auctions results tells me that the drop should be about 15 percent at least in middle to upper class suburbs. Does core logic data lag by few months?
     
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  17. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    I expect so, they've said they have a great deal of trouble getting data promptly (price withelds) at the moment. Also, the biggest drops have been in the top end, with much smaller drops in the FHB end, so the overall fall is going to be lower than your upper and middle suburbs.
     
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