Economic Armageddon, ten myths

Ok but what will fund that?

 

Market Sentiment. Ease in finance lending .

It's not a matter of 'if' , just when.

 

People are putting way to Much trust in banks. Do you really think they are there to help out the people? Do you really believe that it's not the banks that control house prices. People need to Wake up. Unfortunately most don't even know the true powers the banks have to repossess your house or anything that you "own". You need to first understand the words and terms of banking and you will soon realise what they are about. But most lawyers are illinformed when it comes to this also. There's only so much that is taught at law school.
So don't be so sure that you are safe from the bank because you are making repayments. Means nothing. Just because you can't "find" examples on Google does not mean it does not happen. They have to protect their interests so this stuff is much harder to uncover. But if you know where to look and what to look for and know your history it's clear as day. Being a public forum that is all I will post and will not get into specifics.

 

Cool story bro'

 

The same thing that always funds it. More loans. No credit no boom. Simple as that really.

 

Why wait for 10 years ? with so much expert knowledge you could have short the banks at the start of the year and make a killing and if you truly believe our banks will go ****, it still not too late to short the banks, CBA still worth a cool market cap of 121 Billion and WBC 95 Billion plenty of money to be made riding it down if that what you think will happen.

But make sure you are right because our banks have a habit of making the widow out of them, a few hedge fund did short our banks in 2014 and they became a widow in 2015 then they back in 2016 to be made widow again in 2017

 

https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=5a1e31a7-d55d-49e6-8f24-0d333f8e3b64&subId=407343

Heartbreaking story

 

Never in my wildest dreams do I imagine the banks will lose a cent or become insolvent in Australia before the politicians bail them out and transfer the problem onto the people just like last time. The people just took it and as usual did not complain.

I would never bet against the banks here, its the people who will loose.

Do you think all the people that lost millions in Karratha will ever stop paying the banks?

 

Tick Tick Tick – Aussie Banks’ $15 Trillion Time Bomb

Anybody here know how much derivatives Australian banks hold?

This article claims that even RBA had to be bailed out with the Aussie banks.

Seems like the Aussie government and Aussie big four are completely entwined together and can’t unravel. I wonder what the royal commission will do in the end.

 

It doesn't make sense when you predict housing collapse and banks doesn't

Banks profitability is 100% link to the housing market, if there is a collapse in properties market banks wears a lot of pain and profit will collapse.

The government may bail the bank out but that because they are on their final legs and they are bleeding money and their profit would have collapsed.

in that case, share price would have also collapsed, any recap of the banks' shareholders will get wiped out.

Again if you believe in properties market crash, the best way to make money is shorting the banks, again I said you better be right else you will become a widow

 

I've heard this negativity, fear mongering and catastrophizing many times over the last 18 years (mind you at the expense of many millions of dollars for those who missed out due to irrational fear). Guess where values keep heading for high demand stock and locations... Always up. May go slightly down then sideways for awhile but guess what comes next ...up again. Always up buddy is its long term trajectory .

 

If you believe the banks are going to be so profitable why don’t you go long on the banks with borrowed money?

I won’t touch the Aussie banks with a barge pole.

I have made an absolute fortune buying stocks in the crashes and then selling them on the highs. Great moolah I made just two weeks ago.

I am waiting for the next big one Like 2008. While I wait I buy the big dips after they start recovering and I ride it up to nearly the last high and I sell.

Right now I am in cash and not keen to rush in. Everyday I become more cautious, it’s close to a crash.

 

Banks don’t loose money on property in Australia , only the people do, the banks insure the risky loans and act quickly to recover money in a falling market and what I am saying is that you will be surprised how quickly they will recover money in a falling Sydney market. But their mate Turnbull will send in more Chinese millionaires if that begins to happen. It’s enough to lower the price on foreign purchasers permanent resident visa from 5 million down to 2 million and you can flood Australia with millionaires willing to buy property using the debt printed by the Chinese and converted into Aussie dollars of which there are too much around at the moment.

 

100% - overstated
35-40% - more realistic
ANZ says Australia's housing slowdown is almost over with prices set to rise again

 

I am a seasonal investor my view varies from time to time but I don’t subscribe to doom day or eternal bull scenario you can not be a successful investor with that mind set, but each to their own.

And I am fairly successful with shorting banks since the beginning of the year if you read various of my snippet but again I based my information and analysis not on doom day scenario but on my probability of getting more things right than things goes wrong.

I have close my short and there will be time I go long again on banks

 

We talking about a collapse in housing are we not? it not about slow down lending or not lending loans

When house collapse people will default banks end up with asset worth less than their equity
The write down begins profit will be completely wipe out as Shareholder equity and profit is a fraction of the business and market cap

It not the drop in value that cause headache it the after shock, ppl lose jobs, confident gone, people not spending and the reverse of the bull market start ... when there is no job you can’t make repayment doesn’t matter if you hold 400k of debt or 4m

I am always prepare for down turn but I never stop investing ... gfc massive crisis I can survive all except a nuclear war that wipe out earth

That the 100% correlation

 

Printed money in other countries with record levels of unpayable finding assets in Australia, supported by record levels of unpayable taxpayer funded debt or record levels of unpayable personal debt, in an Australian environment of high unemployment and low wage growth where absolutely all the capital moves into mostly unproductive housing controlled by greed and corruption that is turning the economic supporting population into debt slaves is a sad story that has a very tragic ending. If it does not economics, is not mathematically sound.

 

Banks get bailed by governments. People get the water chucked onto them. Happens all the time. Individual, disorganised Australians dispersed by lack of solidarity and individualism given no voice by their media or politicians do not an army make.

 

look at that chart: Sydney - the coming correction 2018-2022

vast majority of people with relatively new mortgages are with LVR <= 80%, so the banks are quite safe, and large portion of people with LVR > 80% won't have financial problems so they will continue to make repayments even when their equity is in negative zone, plus LMI will help.

agree that banks profit will be affected, but not that much as you think. Unless it is a major collapse with -50% drop, but that's highly unlikely, and before that moment banks/government may act preventively to stop that trend.

 

Nothing wrong with bailing out banking to stabilise the economy and keep people in jobs

The other alternatives is people without jobs and that has more devastating effect.

People prefer water throw at them and get to keep their job or going without a job and beg for work

They have learned their lessons from 1929 and the Japanese crisis.
That the stuff you get when you don’t step in and manage the problem