Econ. Report for Major Real Estate Grop

Here's a copy of a short monthly economy & markets report that I write for one of the major national sales groups released this week.

(NOTE: I've taken out parts that are commercially sensitive so it's not the complete publication, apologies if it seems incomplete)


Mixed Messages – Industry Commentators Mixed on Housing Market

The headlines of publications have been very mixed the past fortnight, with RBA rate cut predictions by Credit Suisse & UBS declaring Australia’s property boom has ended after 55 years of uninterrupted growth.

In my opinion, a rate cut is extremely unlikely in the medium-term future, given record-low rates and most analysts predicting a rise in rates for 2018. This is due to a strong business sector both locally and globally, with Saudi Arabia being the only country in the top 48 economies of the world reducing the inter-bank rate recently.

Major Indicators (As at November 8)

- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 1.8% (Year on Year), 0.8% (Quarter on Quarter) which is a healthy level of growth
- Inflation 1.9% (Below target of 2%)
- Unemployment rate 5.6% (A value of 5% is considered “full employment”)
- AUD/USD 0.77 (Negatively impacting Australian exporters)

Data: RBA / ABS / Trading Economics

Graph - First Home Buyer Activity On The Rise – Note this chart is 30 days old

Current FHB lending data indicates a further rise to 17.2% of total lending.