Dr Doom

willair · 26th Mar, 2019

Onlinedave said: ↑

So firstly I agree that just trying to time the market is a mugs game. Just because an asset is mid-priced today in someone’s opinion, it doesn’t mean that mis-pricing will correct tomorrow, or over any specific period. (The odds of it correcting long term though are actually quite good). Identifying catalysts may help inform a guess on the timing of any adjustment a very little bit, but there are always plenty of other factors that can offset a catalyst short term. Eg in 2009 some (including me) felt the market was fairly fully priced, but didn’t foresee massive rate cuts and market fiscal stimulus, China coming back online in a big way, and banks losing their heads in terms of lending discipline (eg 50% IO loans -whatever your views on the appropriateness of IO loans for a sophisticated investor, there is now way its appropriate for 50% of the mortgage market, a view shared by basically every regulator around the world).

So those sprukers etc calling a crash over a specific period are usually kidding themselves.

However, there is a difference between trying to time the market and calling it over-valued and therefore not currently offering a decent expected return. So if it goes up tomorrow for some unexpected reason, that doesn’t necessarily make the investment decision wrong as one-off or unsustainable factors (overly generous govt grants, aggressive bank lending, further rate cuts from a 1.5% starting point) generally aren’t sustained over a 20 year period.

The catalysts can also help with the conviction of the decision to hold off, if that’s your call. And current economic signals are showing plenty of red flags, even if we ignore already falling house prices.
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Onlinedave, I thought you were talking about ""Marc-Faber"" he is sometimes called Dr--Doom and I follow what he talks about,as he picked some of the bigger landslides in different investments over the years..

Marc Faber Blog

Alex Straker · 26th Mar, 2019

CheckMate said: ↑

If you're talking about @Alex Straker , you couldn't be further from the truth. He's posting his technical analysis graphs, trying to predict the future BOTH Up and Down. Posting a graph predicting downtrend movement because the market sentiment changed doesn't make him a doomsayer. Next time it can easily be an uptrend.
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Correct..... I am no doomsdayer ..... but I can tell you with some conviction that ASX200 index (XJO) is highly likely to be back under 5,000 in under 1 year. See my thread on World Indices for details. I arrive at these conclusions using maths, cycles, patterns and a natural law of growth & contraction, nothing to do with doomsday.

albanga · 27th Mar, 2019

CheckMate said: ↑

If you're talking about @Alex Straker , you couldn't be further from the truth. He's posting his technical analysis graphs, trying to predict the future BOTH Up and Down. Posting a graph predicting downtrend movement because the market sentiment changed doesn't make him a doomsayer. Next time it can easily be an uptrend.
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No one specific, just general doomsayers.
Their are literally hundreds of them!
Kyiosaki is one that comes to mind these days.

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Dr Doom

willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

albanga Well-Known Member

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Dr Doom

willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

albanga Well-Known Member

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