Downturn trends?

ok, so there is a lot of doom and gloom talk about a crash or correction or downturn.

whether you believe it is another thing but the reality is in terms of RE cycles a plateau at the least is quite likely,

obviously, there are typical characterists that occur BEFORE the downturn eg less demand, falling yields, the sellers market turning into a buyers market, etc. etc.etc

so do you guys see anything that either SUPPORTS or NOT SUPPORTS the "typical" occurances of this type of market,

for me:

- the APRA getting involed shows support of a fall due to their recent actiomns
- however, even though sales are slowing down, its still too strong and extended for me to be certain of a fall, and is unusual

 

Where? In Perth, prices have been falling for more than a year. In Sydney, the market is already turning and some parts of the market are starting to fall. Melbourne is still going strong and Brisbane looks to be starting to pick up.

If you are talking Melbourne, it hasn't really been that long since prices started picking up. So prices could continue to increase next year. I'm not very confident about that prediction but others are quite positive about the Melbourne market next year.

 

The inner and mid ex cbd Hi rise Mel has about till mid next year to run before it plateus. Outer Mel might be longer than that, but rate of growth will be more subdued than inner/mid.
Brisbane inner and mid will accelerate next year as more non mining jobs take hold and dollar looks yo remain low all if next year.
Perth is in trouble. So is Adelaide, but might have pockets of ok performance driven by bargain hunters or speculators.

 

What is not unusual is for some property investors to ignore what is actually happening NOW. Seen this over many cycles, in fact they keep buying

APRA
Interest rate rise
Economy in decline
Au$ falling
Employment rising

The big one is more stock coming to market, property cycles are very simple SUPPLY vs DEMAND, that's about it in a nut shell. When supply increases there is a risk of over supply.

Some sellers become desperate and then its a "how low can you go"..... bust cycle, much longer period than a boom cycle.

Does not mean property is dead and gone, but the game has changed now, it just got a little harder.

MTR

 

rubs* hands...

 

Exactly. I think it is important to understand which markets are growth markets (opportunities) and which markets are peaking (Sydney) or declining (Perth) because they are future opportunity markets.

 

Me, still looking in NSW houses bar Sydney. Maybe Brissy. Maybe Melbourne.