Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community

Downturn trends?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TMNT, 23rd Oct, 2015.

  1. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,388
    Location:
    Melbourne
    ok, so there is a lot of doom and gloom talk about a crash or correction or downturn.

    whether you believe it is another thing but the reality is in terms of RE cycles a plateau at the least is quite likely,

    obviously, there are typical characterists that occur BEFORE the downturn eg less demand, falling yields, the sellers market turning into a buyers market, etc. etc.etc

    so do you guys see anything that either SUPPORTS or NOT SUPPORTS the "typical" occurances of this type of market,

    for me:

    - the APRA getting involed shows support of a fall due to their recent actiomns
    - however, even though sales are slowing down, its still too strong and extended for me to be certain of a fall, and is unusual
     
  2. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,682
    Location:
    Perth
    Where? In Perth, prices have been falling for more than a year. In Sydney, the market is already turning and some parts of the market are starting to fall. Melbourne is still going strong and Brisbane looks to be starting to pick up.

    If you are talking Melbourne, it hasn't really been that long since prices started picking up. So prices could continue to increase next year. I'm not very confident about that prediction but others are quite positive about the Melbourne market next year.
     
  3. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,839
    Location:
    Brisbane
    The inner and mid ex cbd Hi rise Mel has about till mid next year to run before it plateus. Outer Mel might be longer than that, but rate of growth will be more subdued than inner/mid.
    Brisbane inner and mid will accelerate next year as more non mining jobs take hold and dollar looks yo remain low all if next year.
    Perth is in trouble. So is Adelaide, but might have pockets of ok performance driven by bargain hunters or speculators.
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    7,375
    Location:
    Perth, Melbourne, USA
    What is not unusual is for some property investors to ignore what is actually happening NOW. Seen this over many cycles, in fact they keep buying

    APRA
    Interest rate rise
    Economy in decline
    Au$ falling
    Employment rising

    The big one is more stock coming to market, property cycles are very simple SUPPLY vs DEMAND, that's about it in a nut shell. When supply increases there is a risk of over supply.

    Some sellers become desperate and then its a "how low can you go"..... bust cycle, much longer period than a boom cycle.

    Does not mean property is dead and gone, but the game has changed now, it just got a little harder.

    MTR
     
  5. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,501
    Location:
    Sydney
    rubs* hands...
     
  6. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,682
    Location:
    Perth
    Exactly. I think it is important to understand which markets are growth markets (opportunities) and which markets are peaking (Sydney) or declining (Perth) because they are future opportunity markets.
     
  7. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,501
    Location:
    Sydney
    Me, still looking in NSW houses bar Sydney. Maybe Brissy. Maybe Melbourne.
     
    Perthguy likes this.