International Dow Breaches 23,000

Had to google FOMO
Dont think so, but if you read any share threads on PC, pretty much the vibe I am seeing

just curious

 

@oracle the chart supports that more likely than not in the short-term and this could be very soon a new bull market (and I use that term very loosely, say multi-year steady upwards advance) is not going to start. The opposite is likely to happen and yet another significant pull-back or price correction is likely to occur. This should be in the order of what occurred in February/March 2020 but it could be a low (1600-1700 in SPX) that is not exceeded for the next seven years or so.

The problem with the long-term buy and hold long-term strategy is that it assumes future performance will reflect past performance. There will be different views on what is long-term, so as an example, over the next seven years or so (a quarter of a the typical person’s working life) equity markets (SPX, DJI, XJO, XAO) will be extremely volatile. It will be one of those lengthy periods where just staying in the market (say as a superannuation holder in a “balanced” option) will essentially get the investor nowhere due to the volatile performance of the equity component of the investment option.

It will be far better to move in and out of markets during this period, otherwise, overall an investment will go nowhere, reflecting that equity markets just went sideways finishing their move that started at the high in 2000 in 2027-2028 at 1600-1700 (SPX) or slightly above this if this level is reached before then. Of course, it all depends on one’s individual circumstances and capabilities but by moving in and out one will end up miles in front.

 

I hope I don't come across as trying to have a go at you as I'm really not. You'll probably notice how infrequently I post but I do read a lot and am interested.

With that out of the way.....

Isn't this exactly the premise of TA? Patterns will repeat, price is fractal, etc, etc.

If the logic holds for TA, why wouldn't it hold for long-term buy and hold?

The evidence shows that for the overwhelming majority, (as in, all but a miniscule few) a buy and hold strategy is far superior to a move in and out strategy. I do acknowledge that you state it all depends on ones circumstances and capabilities but it is far, far more likely that those circumstances and capabilities will result in a move in and out strategy ending up miles behind a buy and hold strategy for most people.

 

Can you build an empire on other peoples' FOMO? LOL

 

Go on reddit and it's pretty much "how do I invest in the US to buy Tesla?"

 

I am considering exiting and may be rentering later as I wouldnt buy it now ,which means I should sell.. I think the risk has increased and it is highly priced, may well give high returns and benefit from 5G, but I just dont have conviction as it is getting into the banking area which I have found is best to avoid. I think there are better places and opportunity in other positions I am building on, with less risk at the moment. A small position may be ok as there are worse places to put your loot.

 

Recent analysis by Bloomberg has identified that almost 200 companies from the 3,000 largest public companies in the United States have reached the feared Zombie Status following the onset of the pandemic. That is, these companies are not earning enough to cover their interest expenses.


The list includes household names from Boeing to Carnival, Delta Air Lines to Exxon Mobil. Possibly even more alarming is that these companies have added almost US$1 trillion of debt over the year, bringing total debt to US$1.36 trillion. That is more than double the roughly US$500 billion zombie companies owed at the height of the financial crisis............... A statistic worth monitoring.

 

To be upfront with you there are some fundamental concepts on wave theory that are essential to understand. They are not easy concepts to understand but failing to do so simply leads to going over the same ground again and again and again…I suggest you might need to invest some of your own time (if you haven’t already) to gain a deeper understanding. I have tried to provide adequate explanations.

Price by itself as a variable is not fractal nor is it a fractal. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales (see What are Fractals? – Fractal Foundation). So, it is the patterns that are created by market price data plotted in relation to time that are fractal in form.

Imagine it is 31 October 2007 and the question is asked, “What is the outlook for the Australian stock market for the next two years or so?”. Most people would extrapolate the future based upon the past. So, many/most would answer “The market is expected to keep trending up, actually quite strongly, like it has for the last four years.” We know the reality was far different. My point was that it is dangerous to extrapolate financial markets using linear thinking. The concepts of wave theory, for example fractal patterns and wave degree, are not linear. My interpretation of your response is you seem to think they are when they are not.

Accepting that wave theory manifests itself in financial markets as fractal patterns of varying scale doesn’t mean the patterns conveniently occur in time, sequence and a scale that is always beneficial and without devastating consequences (i.e. keeps the market moving up year after year without large corrections simply because that reflects past history, say over a number of years). It is inevitable that over a very long time period, say 30-35 years reflecting the working life of an adult, that equity markets worldwide will experience a number (at a quick guess 3-4) of almost synchronised corrections (or sideways drifting periods) that are of historic significance. My own experience were the corrections of 1987 (technically October 1987- November 1992), 2001-2003 (Australia – US 2000-2001) and 2007-2009. Some specific instances (markets, sectors, time periods) can be far worse e.g. Euro Stoxx 50, DJI 1966-1982, DJI 1932-1954 – see charts.

 

This is the rest of my response. I had trouble combining it into the one post.

The first component of my statement is a simple matter of fact. The second component is the “but” which you have expanded on and I agree with. However, I don’t accept that it is all that difficult to move from a position of being completely unaware of when these synchronised corrections are likely to occur to a position of being able to forecast them almost two decades in advance and refine the forecast as time progresses. To do this simply subscribe to the service from Property Share Market Economics 18.6 Trading Investment Research Commodity Capital Investor Speculator Retiree Business | Phil J Anderson (I do and yes some might consider it expensive at USD720).

If the goal is to fine tune performance even more, simply identify a service that specialises in time/timing/cycles. I would suggest Andrew Pancholi’s The Market Timing Report - Find out key trading dates & insights, although I don’t subscribe to it. Andrew is well respected and is a board member of the Foundation for Study of Cycles.

 

I agree most people would extrapolate the future based on the recent past. However, most people don't actually put much thought and consideration into their investing. Most people invest on rumour, hot tips, suggestions from stock pickers, and any number of other stupid reasons.

However, in my experience, an investor who has actually thought about their strategy and made an informed decision to enact a buy and hold strategy will rarely be choosing to invest based on the recent past in the belief that the recent past is going to continue indefinitely into the future. In fact the very essence of buy and hold is simply to buy in and hold through the long term regardless of the ups and downs.

Admittedly, they likely make this decision based on the belief that the generally upward trend of stocks over the last few hundred years is likely to continue over the next few hundred and so over their lifetime they'll likely make money through this strategy.

I don't see that logic train as being much different to someone who believes price movements over the past are likely to repeat, either linearly or otherwise, into the future and deciding to enact a strategy of moving in and out rather than buying and holding.

A move in and out strategy that is actually executed correctly in real time would be "far better" than a buy and hold strategy. History would suggest, those are few and far between.

I realise this will probably seem argumentative but out of interest, do any of the services you suggest provide independently audited results of a real time trading history of trades executed based on their signals as evidence of doing "far better" than a buy and hold strategy after all taxes and costs are accounted for? And if so, how long do those results show continued out performance?

 

@PKFFW

I cannot say anything further about The Marketing Timing Report as I do not subscribe to it.

The Property Share Market Economics service is not a trading recommendation service. It's a strategic advice service, with a focus on the real estate cycle.

 

I’m always cautious about secondary indicators. They will often show a ‘top’ for a long time in strong markets (vice versa for bear markets).

 

The Dow crossed above 39,000 for the first time

 

Only a matter of time before we reach DJIA 50,000

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Jesus - is Trump good for the US economy?

 

Won’t be long before Dow breaches 40,000 or maybe 20,000