Don't you love Predictions

I like to look back at predictions, interesting, the so called experts most of the time don't seem to get it right
BIS Shrapnel predicting 17% growth for Brisbane over the next three years, we are now 2 years since this article was written...

Also predicting Melbourne to slow down, yet we are in mid 2016 and this market continues to be a relatively strong, infact 2014/15 I would say Melbourne was a booming market.

Glad I never took too much notice of these reports.

Is Brisbane hot on Sydney’s heels?
Posted In June 25, 2014




BIS Shrapnel are pipping Brisbane to be the next boom town, accelerating past Sydney and a slowing Melbourne. In the long run though, big structural factors will give every capital city a lift.

A recent report from BIS Shrapnel reckons Brisbane will be Australia’s premier property market over the next three years.

Even over three years picking price growth is a tricky business, but for what it’s worth, BIS see prices in Brisbane growing 17% over the next three years. That’s a pretty decent clip.

It also sees Brisbane accelerating past Sydney, where BIS expect prices will grow by 10 percent.

Melbourne on the other hand is likely to feel the head-winds of some recent job-losses in the manufacturing sector, and prices are predicted to grow around 8 percent.

 

Hehe, well there you go.
Don't rush out to buy shares in that company.

 

**** Shrapnel.

 

I actually read them but ignore.

For me the real money is made not by following the sheep but by leading the sheep.

For example if you bought in a mining town at 200k and then in 3 years later it is worth 400k, once people start talking about it more and more people will be flooding in. I cant say when I would sell but when prices started getting really ridiculous (e.g. 1M) I would be selling ASAP. Would I be upset if the prices reached 1.2M and then crashed maybe but I would rather get 1M then get 200k.

I would still be happy if I bought at 400k sold at 800k peak was 1.2M and then crashed to 200k.

 

Certainly missed the mark on most of those.

Though the saving grace is that they're on track with their % growth for Bris over the 3 years.

Will be interesting to see what things look like in 12 months.

 

Are they??

 

Well and truly - in fact, they've probably underestimated Bris as well.

Brisbane dwelling values rose 3.9% in the year to 31st July 2015*
They're up 7.14% YoY month ending 31st May**

It's not perfect data (due to overlap) but that's approx 11-12% over the past 2 years.

* Australian dwellings valued at $6 trillion after capital city home values surge 2.8% higher in July
** Monthly Indices | CoreLogic RP Data

 

Forget about all the rubbish in the papers the cycles are pretty obvious if you get on the ground.

Despite what people are saying the Sydney correct is underway.....Sydney led the price growth out the West/SouthWest.....now they are flat lining and correcting. The East, Inner West, Central Coast, Sutherland, and Northern beaches are now experiencing price increase. Soon Sydney will be done.

Same thing in Melbourne except it grew in the better suburbs and flowing through the outer suburbs. Places like Wyndham, Cardinia, and Melton shires are moving...soon Melbourne will be done also...

Brisbane is in the early stage of an up cycle which began in 2014...so the classic major price increases are a 12-18 months.

Dems how the market works.

Darwin and Perth ar expected to bottom out later this year...

Hobart, Adelaide are in an early up cycle....

 

Is perth bottoming out later this year a gut feeling or something you have read or people you have spoken to?

I'm guessing Perth won't boom suddenly but have a slow growth period

 

Would you think that Sunshine Coast follows or leads Brisbane in the property cycle.
Or is this too general of an area to know where they are sit in the grand scheme?

 

SC in my eyes follows the boom from Brisbane but leads Brisbane on the down turn.

 

absolutely not, we are nowhere close unfortunately there will be more pain

 

I predict that the predictions will be incorrect.

 

I predict you could be right

can you then predict that I could be right...now this is getting ridiculous like predictions, accept mine, I am always right sort of..just joking

 

Need a trace buster buster buster

 

The only thing we know for sure is that we don't know very much.

 

For me Perth property prices usually follow the commodity prices, if they go up then good news for property prices however if they go down not so good.

 

Coal and iron ore prices are also playing havoc to the banking sector too... some miners go belly up (Eg. Arrium - it was One Steel), they can't pay their debts, which leads to provisions needing to be made for those loans to miners going bankrupt... they are not small loans either...

 

One Steel are one of the clients I work with and very much across their admin (some business are still making good profits).

Perth is more like a mining city compared to the eastern capitals which are a bit more robust.

 

Hi Big Will, have you done an internet search on Arrium and One Steel recently?