Don't Buy Property in 2019

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 23rd Dec, 2018.

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  1. property world

    property world Well-Known Member

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    So in some sort of lamen terms what are Labor likely to introduce if they get into government?

    Abolishment of NG benefits ?

    What are the possible changes to Capital gains tax?
     
  2. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Domain is not a real estate research company domain consistently posts exaggerated positive articles about the state of the market. It's so obvious to everyone that it even gets joked about
     
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  3. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    some very interesting and convincing arguments posted here,

    it seems that at this stage of every cycle, you have true experts giving their opinion, you also have the attention whore so called experts giving theirs, and you have expert investors giving their opinion too

    I feel that if there were true experts theyd get it right 9 out of 10 times, the fact that they dont , I feel its a anything could happen and no one really knows or can predict

    One thing for sure is that there is not going to be a boom in the next couple of years, it wil be a downward trend, and the only ifs are how much and how long
     
    Last edited: 28th Dec, 2018
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  4. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Assume you have to pay P&I . Only buy something you can afford to hold under those conditions. Forget booms... the only way booming prices can return in the near term is a reversal of assessment rate and living expense policies . Otherwise it’s going to take years . A modest easing of the policies won’t kick start a boom ... it will just ease the price declines ... it will require a reversal , or almost complete reversal of servicing calc policies to get things going again. Otherwise it’s going to take years. This is why speculative mindsets on these forums are almost certainly kidding themselves . Cash flow / debt reduction / holding power are the things you want in these times, friends. This isn’t particularly 2019 advice . It’s been the same advice since 2016/17. It’s just that those ahead of the curve are only just having the herd and it’s sentiment catch up to what’s been a clear reality for 3years +
     
    Last edited: 29th Dec, 2018
  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    There is a thread I started some time ago

    I think its....”screw investors”.....search
     
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  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Seriously who cares? Its not a matter of who is right or who is wrong....

    You say Anything could happen, but its already happening?????? Its not guess work

    Its about being able to mitigate current risks, very simple.... interest loans converting to interest and principal... tack 40% on your loans. Prices are falling, will rents fall?yes, if we have oversupply

    So how are you placed??? That simple are you over leveraged?? If you can not service debt then you need to deleverage
     
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  7. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    My situation is irrelevant

    Anything could happen. Some scenarios are more possible than others.

    For me, since i dont have a crystal ball, it is about making up my mind what will happen, so i can plan
     
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  8. kingstreet75

    kingstreet75 Well-Known Member

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    Or Like Warren Buffet, be born into a senatorial family, with a father who owns a brokerage. o_O
    Is 2019 the year to buy? Depends what you are buying for. I know in regional areas like Warrnambool the rental market is very hot. Just not enough stock ( according to one real estate agent ). I do know in a town of 30,000 people there are only 10 properties for rent under 250 dollars a week. Ballarat rentals are also hard to get, and Geelong. That situation is not going to change for a while. I can't see a house in Geelong losing much value over the next long term.
     
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  9. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Clearly not a buy since there are still people on this forum thinking of buying
     
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  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Good post

    markets in Syd and Melb peaked in around 2016.
     
  11. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    I think according to data. Most of Sydney peaked in mid 2017. I was on the ground in both 16/17 and 17 was still hot in the area's where I was looking.
     
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  12. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah seems about right for parts of Sydneys west early 17 there was still plenty of confidence from buyers and sellers, sentiment seemed to turn around mid 17.
     
  13. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    I haven’t been watching the Sydney nor Melbourne market for some time.

    From memory, I thought CoreLogic reported that Sydney peaked in July 2017 and Melbourne peaked in November 2017.
     
  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Look at this chart for Syd, need to check out Melb… clearance rates dropped in 2016.
    How they classify peak not sure? probably need consequative monthly falls.??

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Dropped in 15

    Government lowered rates

    Clarence rate spiked again in 16 falling mid 17
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I am reading it different to you at 2016.... I think investors probably should have been out of this market around this time, IMHO..... but there will always be exceptions of course.
     
  17. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    I

    But what investors are doing and the fact the peaked was 2017 are two different things.
     
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  18. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    yep
     
  19. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Lindeman's argument … its going to be a little blip and then boom again, I am not buying for one minute, its crazy talk. He forgot about the issue of housing affordability and house hold income and debt (link attached, some sobering facts)

    He also has a vested interest on minimising what is actually quite serious scenario at the moment. Its part of the downturn, and they last longer than boom cycles, history proves this one.

    In terms of rents increasing, no idea? but this will come back to supply vs demand and for what product??

    The housing boom is over and we are in huge danger if the economic tide turns | Greg Jericho