Don't Buy Property in 2019

If someone like me is looking for family home for long time and finally found one then should put his name in the hat rather than waiting for another year or so!

 

Gold mine found in Brisbane backyard

U sure u don't have one in ur acreage backyard?

 

Any house with 4bedrooms or more and a backyard can be a family home. Just depends on it budget really. But in boom markets like Sydney and Melbourne which have way overshot reasonable pricing and could be facing a big down cycle, it may pay to wait a year to be nearer the bottom. But for places that have already come down 15 or 20% then not much point waiting. if u are already cashed up and ready just go!

 

No hills on our block => no mine, gold or any other

 

U never know. I have a new Fisher 22 metal detector I could use to see if u have any gold on ur property hahaha

 

It's getting close to 2 years since peak. How much longer is the "big down cycle" you refer to as being faced?

Edit: 2 years of drops since peak

 

we may have passed 6 o'clock?

 

It's always a great time to buy if I'm making a commission on your purchase!

It's a bad time to buy n hold after such a huge jump and horrid rental returns.
Not a good time to buy unless you can add value ie builder/tradie.

Exceptions may be mining or rural towns that have had a huge drop with local on the ground knowledge eg you lived there for 10yrs+

 

Average down cycle is 4-5 years.

 

Many are hoping this

 

Do you mean cycle as a whole.
Downturn , stability and than upturn?

I would say we are approaching stability now.

Next 4 weeks are going to give us some indication while regulators implement new rules and a change in interest rates

 

That’s what most property investors are HOPING.

 

Yes, its way too early and Way too broad

Need to see credit ease before we see stabilisation ???

I think economy is softening??? wont help
interest rate drops and AUD slip
sliding

 

When you say 'down cycle' is that fall then flat period? Or is that 4-5 years of fall in your definition Shane?

 

That's becoming a very common narrative at many levels. So very likely to happen.

 

From when prices start falling to when they start rising on a quarterly basis again.

 

Also if history is a guide bust markets last much longer than boom cycles.

Wish it was the other way around.

I think the longest boom cycle that I can remember was the mother of all booms in Perth, from 2001 - 2007, but that was due to the mining boom. Syd and Melb last boom, I think that was from 2013-2017?? perhaps someone can confirm? I did jump into all these markets, but nasty stuff if you get stuck at peak

 

In my memory Burst last max 3 years, generally 2 years, no more than that. However there were always flat market followed by burst. I hope you didn’t mean flat mkt within the burst period.

 

Not really.

Although it will also depend on whether. If you are referring to Perth I agree.

East coast is different to West.

 

But if credit slides and we can secure and fix interest for quite few years and we pay the fair value of the IP where the numbers on the deal stack up with some renovation potential to increase the rents... than it would be ok to buy as the holding costs may be neutral or minimal to hold...sort of like land banking for the future.