Does Australia Need China??

It would make sense for Singapore to be the next major financial hub. Anyway, aspirations are good don't you think?

 

Love Singapore

 

a matter of degree..

 

Ah I wanted to use that word but that would upset people.

 

From IDP education's latest figures, it appears indian students have overtaken chinese as their largest client base.

For melbourne, I am seeing the same shift in previously chinese dominated areas such glen Waverley and donny east.

So perhaps even if chinese do boycott australia there are plenty of others that still want to study/gain pr here.

 

Law of Conservation of Mass

 

"And 2018 figures show we have some of the highest participation rates of school leavers in the world, at least 30 percent higher than is the case in the United Kingdom." On a population parity basis we have more universities in the world’s top 500 (by some metrics) than Canada, the United Kingdom and United States.Participation is too high. Not everyone is a scholar. We need to distinguish between vocational education and higher education again...

 

I think if you looked at IDP's latest presentation, the Chinese overseas student population remains by far the largest in the world, and around 3x the size of India's. Image attached direct from IDP's latest presentation. This is global data, so I'd imagine Australia would be more skewed towards overseas students from China and India (vs say in UK may have a greater skew towards continental European overseas students).

Secondly, one small company's (yes IDP is very small compared to universities) statistics are not very representative of the market... IDP operates in a very specific sector, unlike universities. If you looked at RDH (another ASX-listed education provider), you'd find the vast majority are from Latin America and Japan.

Then it's all about marginal customers, without getting into which country is bigger. Aust can't afford to lose either India or China as far as selling education is concerned. Even if Chinese only made up 10% of overseas students (and let's say India made up 12%), which, based on the global graph I attached wouldn't be such a small number in Australia anyway, losing the Chinese is the same as losing 10% of your overseas revenue. The Indians would have to almost double just to get back to square. Falling revenue = falling share prices = jobs lost.

 

But idp is trading on 72 pe ratio, analysts must be expecting afterpay type growth

But honestly lets hope they do keep coming as many of these hard working students take on essential jobs that many locals refuse to touch (likely due to jobseeker being so elevated).

 

Haha you have to trade on 30x revenue and make no NPAT (hence negative PE) to be on Afterpay's multiple

 

With our current heavy anti China stance and the real possibility of loosened immigration requirements and higher immigration numbers post COVID I can see Australia fast becoming a nation where a majority of people will be of Indian background.

When it starts to affect our political landscape we may see some pushback but until then I would base any property investment on what would be attractive to the Indian community.

 

Last FY IDP had an almost 50% increase in Indian enrolments to 37%, Chinese enrolments dropped from 27% to 25%. Losing 10% of Chinese students WOULD NOT be the same as Losing 10%, more like 1%, of revenue, given ,57% of IDP's revenue comes from administering the International English Language Test Systems relied on by 140 countries and 10,000 organizations. More students are placed overseas than in Australia anyway, into main English speaking countries ,Vietnam and Cambodia.

 

Did that 5 years ago.

 

Interesting. What would you deem to be attractive for that cohort? I am guessing school zones..

 

Good watch! The rise of China is imminent

 

Was there any ground-breaking insight from K Rudd during that presentation that isn't basic information already known or commonsense....20 minutes of my life I won't get back. With a full auditorium this is a case of the 'Emperor's new clothes' (no pun intended).

 

I know

I was talking about the broader overseas education market in Australia. Hence I made the comment IDP and RDH are very small players and not representative of the sector.

The point of the IDP graph was it showed where the entire overseas sector’s students came from. And India was a fraction of China’s. If Aust universities (not IDP) as I mentioned lost its Chinese market, it would be catastrophic for Aus because all figures suggest China is by far the largest overseas students component in universities, accounting for 60% of all international students in this country’s top universities

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chinese-students-will-not-go-there-beijing-education-agents-warn-australia-20200610-p55151.html