Does anyone actually care about Australia's future?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Toucan, 31st Aug, 2020.

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  1. Toucan

    Toucan Well-Known Member

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    This is a genuine question, I really want to know why this is so? Probably the wrong forum to ask on, anyway here go's.

    It seems everyone I speak to, anything I read on forums, news etc. People only seem to care that house prices stay afloat, like this is our economy..
    That's not a balanced economy, it seems super risky & quite insane to me. Is this why everyone wants to keep property prices up? Because that's all we have?

    It seems a recession is laughed off, job losses sky rocketing, no immigration & a pandemic is all water off a ducks back. Why?

    I don't really care if prices go north, south or sideways, but I feel a bit scared that that's all anyone cares about in this country.

    If high house prices & large personal debt is all we have, we have nothing.

    We've sold our soul off. We have basically no manufacturing, no agriculture, no major infrastructure happening, were not competitive on the global market for anything, we're lost.
     
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  2. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

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    Agree, it seem's governments/politicians are or have been very short sighted for years.

    We don't have any form of sovereign wealth fund, when things go bad they just "tweak" (review) the tax system :confused:

    Bring on the Australia card :p
     
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  3. Mark F

    Mark F Well-Known Member

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    We do have the Future Fund which was established with part of the Telstra sell off. Currently worth about $150b
     
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  4. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    A lot of agriculture exports go to China...but given the recent Chinese public rhetoric and threats against Australian agriculture products, it's a precarious situation to be in.
     
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  5. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I don't think this is the case for "everyone". Personally I don't care if house prices flatten or fall. In fact, it would be ok because it would help our younger generation get a house.

    I'd like to see manufacturing and infrastructure projects set up so we can be more self-sufficient, but no government will do that (so it seems) because it takes a longer view than four years, when they might be voted out.

    As younger people get into politics, perhaps things will slowly change, but it seems the wrong people sometimes get the power.
     
  6. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Which country has 'won', according to what you think is important?

    The good future you refer to seems to be the post WW2, majority middle class, get ahead by working physical jobs sort of environment.

    What if that's not possible? Because we can't compete on labour intensive manufacturing. And knowledge based work is going to result in more extreme incomes.
     
    Last edited: 31st Aug, 2020
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  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Moving ahead......We are just going to have to deal with the consequences of the pandemic. Recession is inevitable. Challenge will be bringing jobs back

    I also expect our standard of living may change

    Our relationship with China will impact on our prosperity and then we have the Trade and technology Altercation/war between China and US. I think government has already backed the US on this, lets see how that works for us

    Yes We do have second highest personal debt in the world.

    As far as house prices go, the markets are not behaving the way I would expect in current climate.
    Perhaps this will change once government stops propping up job-keeper etc??

    Are there any rays of sunshine??? I dont know banking on infrastructure spending but dont think its enough
     
  8. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-8-31_16-9-53.png


    Some one also forgets to mentions something so important.


    2nd highest Median wealth per ca pita in the world. (average)
    And Numero 1 (Median)

    So? put debt and wealth together than you get the whole picture.

    Don't use one with out the other. Thats what uneducated people that write many articles in poorly informed headline grabbing media do.



    upload_2020-8-31_16-6-32.png


    additional source:

    List of countries by wealth per adult - Wikipedia



    upload_2020-8-31_16-6-32.png
     
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  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    2019
    Seen this before, impressive of course

    Just not sure moving forward where we will be on this list???

    Globally everyone will be impacted by recent events, but we now wont have China to buy our iron ore????
     
  10. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    China is not stupid. I deal with them in My work on a daily baisis.

    This is a game of cat and mouse

    They will not go to Brasil for less reliable clean Iron ore supply which takes longer to get here from a politically unstable country.


    They are super smart operators. This is a very strategic game.
     
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  11. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    My Australian share portfolio has returned 35+% since the bottom of the COVID crash.

    It has returned 6% in the last 12 months including the COVID crash.

    So, what else is there to worry about besides property?

    Cash? I am happy where cash is at. Low interest rates on all my loans :D.


    I am far more worried about COVID than any of the above. And my worry is dissipating fairly quickly as we have gotten use to wearing a mask, sanitising regularly when we are out, social distancing in public, good cough/sneeze etiquette, ... This is our best winter health-wise for at least 4 to 5 years.
     
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  12. Mark F

    Mark F Well-Known Member

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    One of the more important take aways with the table is the disparity between median and mean wealth which will give you a rough measure in inequality. If you divide the AU figures you get an index of 2.13, For the US it is 6.56 a good illustration of just skewed the US is in wealth distribution. A couple of other NZ 2.61, UK 2.87.

    In relative terms we have a relatively equal society although it has become more unequal in the last decade or so. For me this equality is a key factor in high quality of life we experience.
     
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  13. Toucan

    Toucan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I don't have the answer to that. I don't think anyone or country on earth is actually "winning". Maybe those that are off the grid & don't have a tv or internet. That's not the lifestyle I want either though.
    I think we just need balance, everything is off kilter atm.
     
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  14. qak

    qak Well-Known Member

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    And Sweden, who is held up as an economy to look up to, has a disparity of over 6 as well.
    Maybe it's the ABBA effect?
     
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  15. spoon

    spoon Well-Known Member

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    I think property price is only an indicator. An indicator of whether the economy is doing well so people are wealthy enough to afford accommodation. If you go to a war-torn country, houses worth nothing. Even within Australia, not all housing are unaffordable. There are still houses at around or less than $100k. And there is a reason for that.

    I am more worried about Australia has been relying on Agriculture, Mining and Education as the chief exports. We have all the conditions for developing a hi-tech industry and the talents to conduct top-notch R&D, hence producing advanced products. But we choose the easy way or being complacent on what our risks are.

    We think we are the "lucky country"! Same as some oil-producing countries thinking as long as they can sell oil, money will keep coming in.

    Without technological innovation and commericalisation of such, one day the top 3 exports will fail us. Covid19 has shown just a little bug can heavily impact our Education export. Or someone's sanction on our barley and wine exports will leave us licking our wounds. :(

    Imagine what future we would have if we were the best pharmaceutical research hub in Asia and can produce the most advanced medicines to cure the hardest to tackle diseases. Only a few decades ago we pioneered test-tube babies and invented the most advanced artificial hearing aid. :cool:
     
    Last edited: 31st Aug, 2020
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes
    Wins practically every year as best country to live in the world
     
  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I dont understand your theory??
     
  18. Toucan

    Toucan Well-Known Member

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    I 100% agree on that too, we lack innovation in tech & other industries, we're behind the 8 ball.
     
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  19. Mark F

    Mark F Well-Known Member

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    I would argue that Sweden has high taxation and a very comprehensive social security system including government funded pension which frees people from having to amass wealth to meet the needs of life, in particular retirement and old age.

    In Australia our personal superannuation funds our retirements with a top up if needed from the state. This encourages a larger percentage of the population to amass wealth and Super guarantee from wages makes that largely compulsory). I feel Australia provides a good balance between rewarding savings (although current low interest rates are problematic for savers) and a degree of social security that safeguards the needy. At the moment our tax policies favour wealth creation though debt which I would like to see wound back.
     
  20. Mark F

    Mark F Well-Known Member

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    I saw an item on tele a week or two ago that gave me some hope. It showcased a custom computer board manufacturer who said that robotics now meant they could compete with China and other low wage countries. What Australian business has to do is start investing in long term productive activities rather than worrying about the next dividend and bonuses.
     
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