Do you reckon most tenants who will lose their jobs have already done so?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by James Bond, 3rd May, 2020.

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  1. James Bond

    James Bond Well-Known Member

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    So far we've been very lucky, unlike some poor landlords, and have had no tenants so far lose their jobs and therefore be unable to pay the rent.

    I'm just wondering, going forward, whether we have seen most of the job losses due to Covid19 - or whether there will be a second wave of layoffs?

    The media and federal pollies would have us all believe we are at 6.00 on the "Covid19 clock" and about to start coming up the other side.
     
  2. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    More layoffs and hours reductions to come sorry. The parent company I work for does Travel insurance. There's no demand, no money coming in. There have already been many redundancies for some roles but there will be a wide spread reducing of hours for most staff still with the company starting June 1...

    I can't see the company doing well till people are free and happy to travel internationally again. I guess that won't happen till the pandemic is widely controlled worldwide.
     
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  3. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Only once job keeper payments are wound back and when all sectors of the economy are operating without restrictions will this become clear. It’s likely many businesses will fail, demand post COVID-19 will be very weak, consumer confidence has been destroyed.

    Those relatively unaffected may still reign in discretionary sending leading to further job losses. I don’t think anyone really knows the implications yet as it’s not like a normal recession.
     
  4. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    I'm likely to do more WFH post Covid. When I do that, I won't be buying my lunches from a restaurant or cafe. I won't be walking past shops and impulse buying stuff.
    I think people have put more joy in using community pay it forward and buy nothing groups so they don't buy new. Sharing resources. People have been swapping puzzles to do, within the family and in the community.

    You can find free fitness classes online. I did a free pilates class on Thursday, and actually, I think it was better from home. It's completely private and you don't need to go anywhere to participate.

    Just enjoying doing more simple things that don't cost anything.
     
  5. qak

    qak Well-Known Member

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    My partner lost his job on Friday, so I think the 2nd wave - the knock-on effects of the immediate closures - are happening now.
     
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  6. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Sorry to hear that :(

    There are people who engaged builders for future work, and I think a lot of that discretionary work will be put in hold temporarily or permanently and spend won't happen.

    My company was looking to deploying a new CRM... We went through the discovery phase, 8 solid weeks of meetings for it was done involving many hours of work by a lot of people (internal staff and a large number of consultants) and now the project is on hold.
    I want to project to continue, but the business might not be in a position to do it.
     
  7. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    The current circumstances have been a blessing for a lot of Mt Druitt tenants.

    Well for starters they never had a job to begin with. Now their dole money has doubled and they don't have the normal job search requirements for Centrelink.

    But wait it gets better, they also get 2 x $750 economic support payments. Woo Hoo for the land of milk and honey. And just to top it off, these tenants will never work or pay taxes to contribute back to society. Hallelujah!
     
  8. sumterrence

    sumterrence Well-Known Member

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    Now they can finally be able to afford that expensive tattoo on their face all the way down to thier neck
     
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  9. Westminster

    Westminster Tigress at Tiger Developments Business Member

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    If only the borders were open so they could use that money for a nice trip to Bali to get a tattoo (and hepatitus, methanol poisoning and a spot of Covid-19)
     
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  10. Peter2013

    Peter2013 Well-Known Member

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    There are two events - the pandemic and the pursuing economic crisis. They could be right about the pandemic (provided we don't become complacent, especially coming into Winter).

    As for the economic crisis, this could take years to recover. Companies have different levels of cash reserve and cash burn, hence are either collapsing or laying of staff at different times. This is likely to continue for at least the rest of the year.

    I would be waiting 6 to 12 months after everything is wound back (if they can wind it back).

    A lot of ill-prepared landlords had a near death experience in the last two months. If you don't have much of a cash buffer, I would continue to save! There is still a good chance your tenant will lose their job and will be unable to pay the rents.
     
    Last edited: 3rd May, 2020
  11. chunho01

    chunho01 Well-Known Member

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    That's a lot of time and effort for a CRM. Tons of integrations and customisation to suit a large enterprise? Rather than an out-of-the-box hubspot or salesforce.

    A bit out of topic, but still kinda related to the topic of job loss.. how come the company can't continue?
     
  12. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Complicated business.
    Re: job losses, I’ll pm you
     
  13. KJA182

    KJA182 Well-Known Member

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    Surely rents in the druitt are set to boom now ?
     
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  14. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    All complete with a Speling Eror
     
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  15. tonyvooz

    tonyvooz Active Member

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  16. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    I'd recommend any landlord at the margin or anywhere remotely close to request a deferment of their mortgage (before that option is closed).
     
  17. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    The irony is those tenants are the most secure of all and are A grade during a pandemic lol.
     
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  18. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    With a lot of crossed fingers, hopefully the peak of C19 is well behind us, but I reckon we haven't reached the economic peak as yet. Still a hand full of months to play out.
     
  19. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    May be some job creation out of all this (still a significant net loss) so just hope your tenant is adaptable and multi skilled
     
  20. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Just got the news, a tenant of mine lost her job. She's not exactly easy to work with, she doesn't want help but she's also not fully paying her rent, just paying some of it.

    Leaving it with the PM.
    I think I may need to claim on landlord's insurance.