Do property prices go backwards significantly? Sydney Bubble

I'm about to put 10% on a property to buy and started to think today if I should cancel and wait.

All this talk about Sydney slowing and I'm wondering if I should pull out of this sale and just wait. But if I did wait and prices did drop would I save a considerable amount? Is it worth waiting? This is a first home.

Would you say prices will fall like 10% over a few years? Or just drop a little and settle i.e. no significant loss but a slowdown.

I know we don't have a crystal ball but I'm hoping some more experienced people here who have been around the market for many years would know what wold more likely be the case.


-Frank

 

Where abouts you buying?

 

This is what happened last time (2003 to 2013)

 

Gotta live somewhere Frank pal, can't live under a bridge.

 

Georges Hall. Its the only place I can find thats around $900k for a new duplex..

Except I'm about to change my mind.. The advertisement on realestate.com says 288msq and I just looked at contract and it's 269msq! Unbeleivable

-Frank

 

I would focus less on the market and more on the reasons of your purchase.
If it is PPOR and you can pay down the debt without stress, possible dips in value shouldn't matter much in the long run.

If you're just trying to buy any property to get your foot in the door in the hopes of it's value increasing I'd be more weary of the conditions.

 

Canterbury/Bankstown is still a buy IMO. If it's a PPOR, definitely buy. I think it's still heading north.( talking about the area not the actual property)

 

Yes it's PPOR.. But I might go for plan B which is Panania but at $200k more.. I didn't really want to spend the extra

Panania I feel will be better for resale and growth.. I will think about it over the weekend..


-Frank

 

As you say, no one has a crystal ball. The best thing I can think of for you is to find a top notch buyers agent to help you decide if you don't have the experience and knowledge to make critical decisions like this with nearly 1 million bucks. Any good buyers agent would be active on forums like this

 

Nothing confirmed at this stage but options are being investigated for the extension of the Sydney Metro from Bankstown to Liverpool.

Georges Hall is in that zone and so this is a consideration.

http://listens.liverpool.nsw.gov.au...ll-us-what-you-think/documents/34311/download

No options have been published yet ( that I am aware of ) but some problems could be that parts of the existing heavy rail network will be severely impacted. That will be a key consideration in the planning. The main issue I see is how to best integrated with the heavy rail.

I'm not sure what prices are going to do but at least be mindful of eventualities associated with the Metro.

Expect wide-scale medium-high density rezoning near any train stations if the Metro does get extended beyond the existing plans that go to Bankstown.

See also the following submission which has one idea for a route:

https://ara.net.au/sites/default/fi... Extension Study - Bankstown to Liverpool.pdf

Whatever happens the general area will help to have prices sustained by a Metro if services are every 4 minutes. Subject to government approval! DYOR.

 

Thank you for the documents.. Much appreciated I will read them now..

Georges Hall however doesn't have a railway station.. ??


-Frank

 

where do you want to live ?

Do you need to buy now ?

2 of my kids are living in rentals and have bought IP's in Brisbane and are keen to buy a second .

As an example , in the last cycle , one forum member missed out on the last cycle in Sydney , but ended up buying multiple low value , high return properties elsewhere and when she sold these was able to pay cash for a home on sydney's northern beaches . Not bad for someone around 30 ...

Spend a bit of time reading on the forum and looking at different options.

BTW , in the GFC ( which was the biggest financial crisis since the great depression) , sydney prices slumped less than 5 % ...

Cliff

 

I don't need to buy now it's just that I'm worried that if I leave it any longer that I will be paying too much here in Sydney in the areas I am looking to live in.. Which are, Padstow, Panania, Revesby, Milperra.. Or on the other side, Georges Hall -, Condell park..

-Frank

 

If it doesn't grow, that would be a Panania in the ***.

 

This is true LOL

 

These are parts of Sydney that completely fly under the radar. Not hyped, but just quietly doing their thing....

 

That's because they're not you're typical investor suburbs . They're OO suburbs and the people who buy there generally don't come to Property chat

Cliff

 

Generally. I've lived two suburbs north of Georges Hall for two decades and only drove by once or twice on SES river monitoring duties. Very much under the radar for investment. Nice enough area, convenient if you want to take flying classes across the road at Btown airport.

 

Frank, no one really knows, and will be area and street dependant, say a good school area, maybe it wont drop, desirable places in Eastern suburbs where people have the cash, maybe no change.

In normal run of the mill suburbia, who knows ?

I think the general market is rate sensitive, but if you can/will keep your home long term and can afford it, who cares what it does (actually, I would rather no crazy price rises, it just costs more in rates etc.

 

Not really, the whole Bankstown LGA has been swamped especially with various mid easterners building duplexes, from some I have seen you better worry more about the B&P than land area.