NSW Discounting in inner west Sydney

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by Rachel92, 16th Aug, 2018.

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  1. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    True - you can't use macro/big data to compare micro analysis of areas.

    Even across the Blacktown area you've got Stanhope Gardens/The Ponds/Kings Langley and Whalan/The Druitt/Emerton/Parklea High Security Housos etc
     
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  2. Herbert

    Herbert Well-Known Member

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    Having been in Australia for some time now, I must admit it is strange that some many Australians seem to have no clue how things work elsewhere. That property requires negative gearing (unique to Australia) or that pubs require "pokies" in order to make money, instead of selling beer and food.

    You really have to pull your heads out of your asses, and have a good look around to see where we have arrived. In a modern city like Houston Texas, a building plot fairly central would be $15-30k US, 100 kms outside of Sydney, in the highlands, you would be around $400-500k Au.

    It is not just silly, it is mindbogglingly silly! There are other egregious overcrowded examples, eg London where prices are now falling, but over most of Europe, housing does not drain the coffers like here, and more money goes into enjoying life, and the pockets of local business.

    this piece, though long, is very clearly and well written in my view, and talks about the Australian economy in full with a section on property at the end.


    Australia's Economy is a House of Cards
     
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  3. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    Don’t forget kellyville ridge and Glenwood. Even if the residents don’t think they are part of Blacktown
     
  4. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    The whole pubs and pokies thing seems so short sighted to me. Yeah the government makes a quick buck off the revenue but for the economy in general it just seems so wrong. Money wasted in pokies would otherwise be spending on goods and services that generate jobs and help businesses. The local pub can run with about 4 staff on at 1 time with profits in the thousands per hour.

    Also all the social issues that go with the pokies. You are only statistically a problem gambler if you register yourself as one, it is a massive problem in many sydney communities where by people are blowing their whole pay check and then struggle through the rest of the week, surely a trigger for mental health issues family violence and break up.

    We legislate to save people from themselves in so many other areas so why not with the pokies
     
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  5. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    You are comparing Houston? Why not look at prices in South Australia as a comparison.

    Let's look at San Fran often compare to syd. $4560 CA for monthly rent for a 2 bedroom apartment.

    How about $ 1,700,000 house prices average :)

    • The median price of a single-family home in San Francisco in March increased 25% year-over-year.
    • But in February, it was even higher - at $1.7 million.
    • Over six years, the median price has surged 143%.

    San Francisco Rent Trends
    As of August 2018, average rent for an apartment in San Francisco, CA is $3754 which is a 0.45% increase from last year when the average rent was $3737 , and a 0.43% increase from last month when the average rent was $3738.

    One bedroom apartments in San Francisco rent for $3363 a month on average (a 1.16% decrease from last year) and two bedroom apartment rents average $4567 (a 0.96% decrease from last year
     
  6. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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  7. Herbert

    Herbert Well-Known Member

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    Totally agree, and made the point that there are egregious outliers everywhere. SF is also recognised as bonkers by most of America. The huge amount of silicon valley billionaires has had an effect, but the market is now dropping too. Canada embraced dirty Chinese money, with the concomitant effect on house prices going ballistic, and social unease by the natives on where their country was heading.

    The fact remains that bubbles exist, and are dangerous for economies. Smart money is not made in rising markets, everyone is a genius when the stock market goes up, (or property) When making money is like falling off a log, beware. Lets see who can hold on to that money when the tide goes out. My bet is not many, frozen like dear in the headlamps, most tuck their head between their legs and hope. I worked financial markets for years, seen it happen too often. All the big swinging dicks that got started between recessions were soon found out.

    In my view the government here will be pushed to act very hard by the banks, and many pollies will be looking to their future sinecures and act accordingly. The only card they have is to quietly open the door to more Chinese, whilst claiming they are not. It will be up to Aussies to decide if it is worth it.

    For what it is worth, If I was sitting with money on the table in Australian property, I would be quietly removing it, selling down. Difficult I know, because of the inherent costs associated, let alone the aggro, but having been a dear in the headlights myself a few times in the past, I have learnt my lessons, too many signals are pointing the wrong way, and I would ameliorate my risk (leave it to the brave/foolhardy).
     
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  8. Herbert

    Herbert Well-Known Member

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    There is something I would add to the above, and that is that sentiment can change, and it would not take much to remove any sympathy regarding property investors, once they find themselves in difficulty.

    Do not be surprised by politicians rebranding, and taking the tack that greedy investors get what they deserve, reap the profits, reap the losses, not our problem etc.

    Very iffy on a property site I know, but heres Winston Churchill on the matter, great rhetoric even if you disagree, (and to an extent I do)

    "Roads are made, streets are made, services are improved, electric light turns night into day, water is brought from reservoirs a hundred miles off in the mountains — all the while the landlord sits still. Every one of those improvements is affected by the labor and cost of other people and the taxpayers. To not one of these improvements does the land monopolist contribute, and yet, by every one of them the value of his land is enhanced. He renders no service to the community, he contributes nothing to the general welfare, he contributes nothing to the process from which his own enrichment is derived…The unearned increment on the land is reaped by the land monopolist in exact proportion, not to the service, but to the disservice done."

    — Winston Churchill, 1909
     
  9. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    Omg where do these comparisons come from? Do you know how small the area of San Francisco is? If you're comparing it to "Sydney", you should compare it to the city area and eastern suburbs. Not places that are 50km away as that would be a completely separate town or city in California. AFAIK, the average price in the eastern suburbs is over 3 million so Sydney is still extremely overpriced.
     
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  10. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    The wider Bay Area is probably a better comparison than San Francisco. Last time I looked, the median house price was around $900K (US), which is similar to Sydney's.
     
  11. BoatArrival

    BoatArrival Well-Known Member

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  12. Herbert

    Herbert Well-Known Member

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    Yes, read that. Needless to say the banks don't give a stuff about the householders having it tough, they just don't want this coming back to visit them, as they realise this time the tax payer may not be able to bail them out. Rudd blew the war chest on their last balls up.

    Aussie banks have 70% of their loans to the housing sector, unprecedented in the rest of the world, I think in the UK it is about 25-30%. Plus they poured money out the door for quick profits without checking properly, 'liar loans' were common, (30% at least) The Chinese also specialised in liar loans from Aussie banks, with false and unverified documentation, at least $500,000,000 of dodgy debt sitting on the bank books courtesy of the Chinese 'investors'

    I have absolutely no sympathy for the banks, but they will be brutal with mortgagees.

    Oh, and by the way, if you believe that rubbish about how good and clever and restrained the big four Aussie banks are, and hence they were fine in the GFC, well it was rubbish. At least two went tits up and had to be bailed by the FED. It was kept quiet at the time, because the Gov here like to keep its populace in the dark, but it leaked out when one of Obamas freedom of (unimportant) information laws kicked it up.
     
  13. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Sydney is not cheap. Just don't compare it to Houston .

    2 bedroom apartments in most of city and inner city are are not leasing for $5000 +AUD per months as an average. That's $1300 per week Aud.

    I have a few in the area and I can attest to pricing as both are middle to upper end of spectrum.

    When looking at Sydney 1 of 2 international cities of Australia one has to compare to similar cities in terms of standing in the home country.
     
  14. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Yep, ain't that the truth, you see people post on here at times saying govt of banks will rescue LLs....lol....

    I remember 30 years ago talking to the manager of one of the big 4, I wanted to vary repayments on 5k left on a loan, the answer was, if you miss a payment we will repossess the security, I asked if he was joking, but he was not......
     
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  15. Herbert

    Herbert Well-Known Member

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    Actually it was me who brought up Houston, as a good average American city, and I was comparing the cost of a piece of land there to the highlands 100 km out of Sydney.
    Forget Sydney, I doubt you would get much in the way of a building plot for $400k.
    The point I was making is that property is expensive even in unknown places, like Mittagong,
    or Bundanoon. You can buy a 3 bed house in Birmingham England for under $100k, not that I would want to put up with that accent.

    On all metrics, Australian property is ridiculously expensive, except for the odd ghost towns, where they are desperate for people. A 40% haircut would not even bring it in line with most other OECD countries.
     
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  16. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    You can get houses for 300-400k in Vallejo which is an hour on the ferry to San Francisco. For 600-700k you can buy in Oakland which is 10 minutes away on the train
     
  17. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Long article but it was a great read.

    "If the government wants to fix the budget, I would have thought the most practical way to do it would be to find ways to grow the economy. You’ll never wean the government off wasteful spending no matter who is in power. The politicians, after all, need to keep that up in order to buy votes through profligate policies such as welfare for the middle class.

    "But instead of thinking of intelligent ways to grow the economy, the focus is purely on finding more ways to tax you. Just think of all the times over the last couple of years, all the random thought bubbles, that various politicians have proposed raising taxes on superannuation, high earners, banks, property, tripling fines for cyclists, tripling fines for companies, the GST to 15% or 20%, the GST on low value imports, the GST on digital goods, stamp duty, alcohol, sugar, red meat, it’s endless".

    "The largest four companies by market capitalisation globally as of the end of Q2 2017 globally were Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. Facebook is eight. Together, these five companies generate over half a trillion dollars in revenue per annum. That's equivalent to about half of Australia's entire GDP. And many of these companies are still growing revenue at rates of 30% or more per annum.These are exactly the sorts of companies that we need to be building".

    "With our population of 24 million and labour force of 12 million, there’s no other industry that can deliver long term productivity and wealth multipliers like technology. Today Australia's economy is in the stone age. Literally. By comparison, Australia's top 10 companies are a bank, a bank, a bank, a mine, a bank, a biotechnology company (yay!), a conglomerate of mines and supermarkets, a monopoly telephone company, a supermarket and a bank".


    [​IMG]

    "Everyone’s too busy watching Netflix and cash strapped paying off their mortgage to have much in the way of any discretionary spending. No wonder retail is collapsing in Australia".

    The standard of living in Australia is deteriorating every year for the average citizen.
     
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  18. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    You want the govt to fix our problems ? And how would that leave time for internal matters and personal objectives exactly ???
     
  19. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    @Cimbom How much is a reasonable house in Oakland ? That would be ok, if you do not need to rely on the bridge....
     
  20. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    A long time ago when I was in that area of CA, we looked at a house someone just bout, it was a mil way back then, was a 2hr or so commute to SF downtown area.

    I thought that was a ridiculous time too travel, but hey, now Syd is like that if your on outskirts.

    Lot of other places in US housing is (or was) very affordable. So unless you had some high flying job, you would not be trying to live in SF if you did not have money already even way back...
     

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