Data from Seek regarding jobs growth in WA and increase in mining jobs

That's a broad brush. Can be pretty cool.

 

I work in the industry and am seeing colleagues move for 25-30% more money to competitors. In 2016 many of my friends went from mining engineers and geologists to uber drivers, so it shows how cyclical this industry.

The Perth housing market still sucks and many eateries / bars are still going it tough.

Floreat / Nedlands / Dalkeith etc, and better suburbs are starting to move more. They have been moving up for over a year now. ******** suburbs still doing it tough and the average person in Perth still doing it tough.

FIFO life is great until you no longer can handle it, then you need a change fast. Some people just love doing it for decades though. Personally not for me and the growth of your career isn't as big (for a professional) as in the head offices etc.

 

Being a opportunist and a long term investor, this is an very excellent chance to get the max bang for your bucks. If any of you are sitting on the fence, don't take too long. Once the vacancies hitting the mid 2s( sometime next year if the current trend persist) things will move up quickly.

 

Yeah perhaps it was.
I meet many people with families who find FIFO tough. Younger folk getting in and out after a few years can have loads of fun and do well if they save.

 

@PJ1

I must confess, I have been away from home for a tad over 4 weeks now and will be 5 weeks when I get back, so this has been a tough one for us.

 

I doubt the vacancy rate will continue on its current trajectory into next year. I wish it would but surely WA doesn't have the population growth to support vacancy rates in the 2s in the near future.

 

If it can dropped from nearly 6% to current 3.6% in the space of a year, what makes you think it can't go down to 2.5% in the next year or two I am curious. Are you base your assumptions on any statistics ?

 

The debate revolves around who are selling , in an oversupplied rental market(which was a fact for the Perth market) investors that are sitting on older property, especially in outer suburbs where they were being forced to drop their rents , and even then many of there properties are left vacant, as renters had a choice between a new property or a crappy old property.
At some point they really had to make a decision to hold or sell , 10 years of flat growth and the possibility that they had interest only loans and were being forced into P&I loans made the decision a lot easier.
Many Perth suburbs went from 30% rentals in the early 2000s to 40% by 2008 and stayed elevated at these levels, many are now down to about 30% as some of these areas have seen some decent price drops and are now affordable to people wanting a PPOR but due to the age of these properties they were unwanted by investors in an oversupplied market,

 

I think vacancy rate analysis at least has to be on a LGA basis, not a statewide basis.

 

What are you stating is what we already know. What I care about is the trend moving forward, you haven't answer my question in regard why you think the vacancy will not drop to mid 2s as the rental market is tightening reported by a number of reliable sources. They are showing a sign of accelerating as more jobs are made available and more positive economic outlooks are being forecasted

reiwa.com - Real Estate in Western Australia: Find properties for sale and for rent in Western Australia

SQM Research - Residential Vacancy Rates

 

I'm familiar with the REIWA vacancy rate (currently 3.9%) and it was the one I was thinking of as unlikely to drop into the 2s since the last time that happened we had a mining construction boom and population growth was more than triple what it is today. The SQM measure seems to be a generally lower figure that must be calculated quite differently, and I agree it wouldn't be surprising if it dropped that low next year, closer to a more normal range.

 

I’m inclined to agree.


But you are focused on the demand side. The supply side is spooked too.


So falling rental vacancy rates may well continue due to anemic demand among investors as much as increased demand for rentals.

 

The City of Belmont LGA has far too many apartment projects on the go right now. I'm concerned about an oversupply. In the short section of Fulham between the Forum and Arlunya Ave there are 3 big projects under construction and that is only one lot. There is also a huge project on the corner of Brindley and Alexander among many others. It's not good. The only upside for people with houses is that the apartment market and the house market tend not to overlap, apartments being 1 or 2 bed in this area and houses being 3-4 bed.

 

do you know off any good stats on current pipeline and near future committed projects ?

 

@Rex @Perthguy @DAZ79
Hotspots reignite in WA as rental demand surges

the rental market is looking very positive moving forward.

 

No I don't. I am aware of housing approvals but they don't always translate to stock on the ground.

This could be a starting point 8752.0 - Building Activity, Australia, Jun 2018