Data from Seek regarding jobs growth in WA and increase in mining jobs

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Ekin200, 9th Oct, 2018.

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  1. Ekin200

    Ekin200 Well-Known Member

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    Hi Folks.

    Not sure if this link had been posted on PC previously, but at work, Seek sent us some info about jobs growth during August (I work in IT recruitment, so that's why I get these links frequently from Seek).

    What stood out was the sharp increase in job ads being listed in Western Australia and the mining industries. This could be cyclical, so I wouldn't take this information as gospel.

    Just thought I would put it out there and hope this info will help other peepz on this forum (FYI, as a disclaimer I don't have any properties in WA, nor do I intend to buy over there).

    Looks like @sash may have bought at the right time in Perth last year. ;)

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  2. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

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    I agree.... really tough going in Perth for the past few years , but anyone with a little patience and a medium term view can buy in at what is essentially the bottom of the market today and ride the next "cycle" ( hate that word ) upwards.

    I have written previously about the APRA effect on future cycles - specifically about future cycles not being like past cycles, but you may recall I also wrote about the fact that unlike Sydney and Melbourne , Perth is one of very few metro/ city locations around the country ( Adelaide is the other) where debt to income ratios sit far enough below APRA's preferred level of 6-7 x income , to allow for growth to occur.

    But just because its mathematically possible that Perth ( or Adelaide) can grow 20%-30% before median prices start to reach 6-7 x median incomes ,that doesn't mean it will. There still needs to be a trigger...and I believe it's Lithium/mining and the fact perth is now so affordable compared to East Coast prices.

    The data posted by @Ekin200 clearly identifies a clear trend towards a mining 2nd wind - and that should bode well for Perth's future prospects. Lithium in particular has enormous potential to drive WA's economy back towards boom conditions in the next few years....

    Perth is probably not going to boom like last time, or like Sydney or Melbourne did pre APRA - simply because we are in the post APRA era and there are just limits to peoples borrowing capacity that will put a lid on how far it can get and how fast it can get there - but it should still prove to be very profitable for those who can ignore it's current $hi7 marketplace and see it's 4,5,6 year potential.

    It really comes down to whether you believe Mining ( and especially Lithium) is going to drive things in the coming years. If you do.... Perth clearly has huge potential.

    How WA can cash in on lithium
     
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  3. Toon

    Toon Well-Known Member

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    Thousands of six-figure mining industry jobs advertised across Australia for all experience levels | Daily Mail Online

    Boom is back: Thousands of jobs on offer with $140,000 salaries across Australia as mining rebounds from the doldrums – and you DON'T have to move to the Outback
    • Mining industry jobs pay average salaries of $140,000 with almost all full-time
    • Western Australia and Queensland are home to more six-figure advertised jobs
    • It follows a strong recovery in coal and iron ore prices since the middle of 2016
    • Apprentice plant mechanic job in Singleton north of Sydney paying $100,000
    By STEPHEN JOHNSON FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

    PUBLISHED: 09:22 AEDT, 8 October 2018 | UPDATED: 17:37 AEDT, 8 October 2018

    Australia's mining industry is booming again after years in the doldrums with thousands of six-figure jobs being advertised - even for those with little experience.

    Everything from cooks and cleaners to engineers and diesel mechanics are in demand as mining companies that downsized during the lean years ramp up production to capitalise on soaring commodity prices.

    The number of advertised jobs has climbed by a third during the past year with apprentices and mechanics with only two years' experience able to earn an annual six-figure sum in an industry with average salaries of $140,000.

    A recovery in coal and iron ore prices from a 2016 slump has encouraged tradies to move to Queensland and Western Australia in search of high-paying jobs, even though there are similar well-paid jobs only two hours north of Sydney.

    Australia's mining industry is booming with average salaries of $140,000 and a surge in job ads

    The number of advertised jobs has climbed by a third during the past year with tradies of only two years' experience able to earn an annual six-figure sum (Pilbara miners pictured)

    In Queensland alone this month, 942 resources sector jobs are being advertised paying between $100,000 and $200,000.

    Mackay, in the state's north, had 394 or 42 per cent, of these lucrative positions, with high-paying jobs also on offer in Brisbane, Gladstone and Townsville.

    Mining-related companies in Western Australia are also competing for skilled talent, with a heavy-duty, fly-in, fly-out mechanic job in the remote Pilbara region being advertised with a salary of up to $200,000 a year.

    Experience isn't necessarily an impediment to a six-figure salary with a heavy-duty diesel mechanic position in Kalgoorlie, in the state's south, paying $55 an hour, for someone with a minimum of just two years' experience, which works out at $114,400 a year.

    The Minerals Council of Australia estimates workers in the resources sector have average salaries of $140,000, a level which is 71 per cent higher than the average Australian full-time salary of $82,000.

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    In Queensland this month, 942 resources sector jobs being advertised paying more than $100,000. Mackay, in the state's north, had 394 or 42 per cent, of these lucrative positions

    A whopping 95 per cent of them are full-time.

    Online employment group Seek data showed advertised salaries surged by 16 per cent, from $106,271 in June 2017 to $123,430 in mid-2018, as the number of job ads rose by 32 per cent.

    Queensland Resources Council chief executive Ian Macfarlane, a former federal Liberal resources minister, said 70 per cent of mining industry jobs in his state paid six-figure salaries.

    'That means you can have a high-paying job in the resources sector and the great lifestyle of regional Queensland, away from the rat race in the city,' he told Daily Mail Australia.

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    The Minerals Council of Australia estimates resources sector workers have average salaries of $140,000, which is 71 per cent higher than Australia's average $82,000 full-time salary

    Workers wanting to live close to Australia's biggest city, Sydney, can move to the Hunter Valley, where more than 12,600 resources jobs are on offer, New South Wales Minerals Council data showed.

    In Singleton, a two-hour drive north of Sydney, a fourth-year apprentice plant mechanic job is being advertised with a starting package of $100,000 a year.

    The higher salaries of Western Australia, however, are continuing to lure workers away from NSW.

    CommSec economist Ryan Felsman said home construction workers in New South Wales and Victoria were relocating to Western Australia as mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP ramped up iron-ore projects in the Pilbara.

    'They've got their new, big projects commencing and likely to soak up some of those construction workers and lift broader activity,' he told Daily Mail Australia.

    'You're seeing that reflected in job vacancies, particularly skilled job vacancies.

    Online employment group Seek data showed advertised salaries surged by 16 per cent, from $106,271 in June 2017 to $123,430 in mid-2018, as the number of job ads rose by 32 per cent

    'We're seeing those emerging skills shortages certainly in the mining sector and the higher-paying jobs.

    'There could be a bit of a relocation take place if the downturn in residential construction sees some of that excess labour relocate back to the West.'

    Projects mining for iron ore, used to make steel, are Western Australia's biggest resources sector employer, accounting for half of the industry's 52,869 people, the Chamber of Minerals and Energy of Western Australia said.

    Australia's resource exports have doubled since the 2006-07 financial year, despite the global financial crisis.

    Exports of minerals, metals, coal and petroleum hit a high of $220 billion in 2017-18, up 11 per cent from the previous financial year.

    Raw materials account for 55 per cent of Australia's export of goods and services.

    Since mid-2016, thermal coal and iron ore prices have recovered, after the key commodity values collapsed from 2013.

    Iron ore prices plummeted from $US130 a metric tonne to levels of just $US35, causing a spike in retrenchments.

    They have since recovered to $US68 a metric tonne.

    In August alone, iron ore was Australia's biggest export ahead of coal, in dollar terms, with a market worth of $7.4billion compared with coal's $5.5billion, Australian Bureau of Statistics international trade figures showed.
     
  4. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    Just remember for anyone considering jumping on the $140,000 a year bandwagon that this is for a full time job for maybe 3-5years during construction.
    You then need to find your next $140,000 a year job. Hopefully the timing works for you, and there’s another major project you can step into. If not you’re back to maybe $80,000 a year, or potentially nothing for 6-8months.

    Which is fine. Just plan accordingly.

    Most don’t

    Blacky
     
  5. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Those NT numbers really are alarming....especially considering we're (more or less) a "resources" economy.
     
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  6. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for providing detailed info.

    However, those looking at WA need to take note that commodity prices WILL be on another big dip so long as the trade war drags on and impacts chinas economy. Chinas economy and commodity demand had been high in 1H2018 but is now on a confirmed downturn much like that during 2011 period, especially with 200 billion tarifs in place, the rest of 2H2018 is looking to be very dicey. My bet is in another few months those job ads are going to disappear.
     
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  7. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Seek Data.....those high numbers are just consultants refreshing to get their ads back to the top. Probably really about 6 real jobs ;)
     
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  8. Shogun

    Shogun Well-Known Member

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    I work in WA mining. I am not sure why they quote Zimbabwean dollars for wages because the Australian dollar wages are no where near what they make up.

    As above a lot of "jobs" on seek are consultants trying to get contacts
     
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  9. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Whats your source for this?


    and anecdotally I will be working back in the Pilbara from April with a 15% pay rise.
     
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  10. Marg4000

    Marg4000 Well-Known Member

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    Friend’s son works in the WA mines, and has done so continuously for the last 10 years (production, not construction).

    FIFO from Brisbane. Planes to and from shifts contain lots of miner workers.
    Marg
     
  11. Rozz

    Rozz Well-Known Member

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    So did I for several years. I know one person who I worked with, out of about 20, whos still FIFO. I thought Perth vals might improve a little this year, but I think its gotten slightly worse
     
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  12. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Latest monthly manufacturing PMI for china is down to 50 (which means growth is flat). If you look back, there was pretty good growth through 2H2017 and 1H2018 with positive PMI numbers coming out every month, especially the surge in June 2018 as American companies pumped up their orders from chinese factories in anticipation of the first round of tariffs coming into effect. This caused commodity prices to experience an uptrend earlier this year.

    So less manufacturing == less demand for commodities(especially coal/iron ore used in steelmaking), its always been the case. Similar happened in 2H2011 if you remember the dip in global economy and chinese PMI numbers due to QE2 ending in June 2011, before commodities came roaring back in 2012 till end of boom ~2H2014 as Feds quickly did a QE3 and china did their own stimulus.

    Do keep in mind that
    1) there will be some lag time between lower chinese manufacturing PMI numbers and commodity demand and prices.

    2) The downtrend in chinese factory orders we are now seeing lag the initial tariffs on 34b worth of imports started in July and 16b worth started in August. Since 24th September, couple weeks back, the tariffs on 200 Billion worth of imports have begun(which will probably be increased to 25% on 1st Jan 2019). It is a no brainer that we will see a sudden steep contraction in chinese manufacturing and by proxy commodity demand.(IMHO this could be the trigger for a crisis/crash in China much like what happened to Japan in 1990s)

    You can find more info reading bloomberg and other business info sites. This is a short report on the PMI and conditions in china..
    China September factory growth grinds to a halt as export orders tumble: Caixin PMI | Reuters

    Hence also my take/expectation on the AUD going down to 65c to the USD

    Do hope you are working with a lithium mining or some other mining company not involved with iron ore, if the tariffs go ahead with the rate rises, we could see iron ore prices quickly head below $50 again before year end...
     
  13. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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  14. gty12

    gty12 Well-Known Member

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    This is an oldie but a goodie on just what you are saying:
    The confessions of a Recruiter MUST READ - Jobs
     
  15. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    well good for you. I think QLD has been doing well from LNG as well. Oil price going up this year should be good for LNG prices as well. Aus LNG exports have been booming since China started its policy of conversion of coal to cleaner NG power generation. But you know what happens after record highs huh, such is the cycle of commodities.... :p

    Demand could still suddenly drop if the Chinese economy falters and factories shut and demand for power goes down. The industry could suddenly face an oversupply. Japan is also slowly turning on its nuclear generators again.

    Chinese and HK property markets are getting hammered at the moment with developers having had pretty bad sales and widespread discounting. Things are slowing down very quickly over there.

    Trade war, souring sentiment weigh on Hong Kong property market

    Disappointing Golden Week sales puts China builders in tight spot

    Country Garden shares slump to 14-month low after angry mobs storm sales centre
    [
    Scores of protesters, some seen holding Chinese-language placards that read “return my hard-earned money”, others throwing rocks, mobbed a sales office for Xinzhou Mansion, a Country Garden residential project in Shangrao, Jiangxi. A decision by the developer to cut prices by up to 30 per cent sparked a wave of anger among buyers who’d paid full price.

    A similar incident took place in Shanghai, where Country Garden slashed prices at its residential project One Mansion by as much as 25 per cent.]
     
  16. craigc

    craigc Well-Known Member

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    By definition 50 meaning growth is flat is correct - manufacturing etc is the same not a downturn nor less demand. Just the same not growing.
     
  17. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Yes but a reading by itself is not that significant. However if you look at the trend over past half year since the tariffs started, IMHO its a very clear picture where china is headed over the next half year, especially given most of the slowdown can be attributed to initial 50b worth of goods tariffs. We now have 4 times as much worth of goods being tariffed. Having negative growth next PMI reading due in 2 weeks is almost a 100% certainty given how things are getting worse on the trade war front.

    China Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 2011-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar

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  18. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    On the upside, China is loosening its monetary policies for banks. It will use the same trick from its old playbook by accelerating infrastructure investments like the post GFC days which created the mother of all resources boom. I don't think we are done with resource booms yet. It might slow down temporarily but it will likely to comeback.
     
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  19. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    I think thats part of the overconfidence some have. And no doubt in august the chinese gov had already given the go ahead for some major infrastructure projects. But the flow on spending effects on growth will probably be only evident early next year.

    Meanwhile manufacturing contracting fast, many chinese also constrained by rising rents, personal debt,economic uncertainty, etc. Are tightening their belts and spending less.

    A good indicator like Car sales have been going down pretty significantly as well.
    China Total Vehicle Sales | 1997-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

    Vehicles sales in China declined 11.6 percent year-on-year to 2.39 million units in September of 2018, following a 3.8 percent drop in the previous month.

    To note china has been pretty busy selling treasuries to shore up the yuan as well.

    We'll see :)
     
  20. PJ1

    PJ1 Well-Known Member

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    There's a reason remote jobs pay $ = A FIFO life isn't that great.