Crash looming

According to your source:

"Low interest rates, negative yields on government debt and quantitative easing are part of the biggest financial experiment in world history, and the consequences are yet unknown, says RIT Capital Partners Chairman Lord Rothschild."​

(emphasis mine)

So, if the consequences are yet unknown how can you definitively state that Australia is facing the biggest depression ever seen? How can you know the unknown?

That is very interesting.

 

“The six months under review have seen central bankers continuing what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30 percent of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale,” Rothschild writes in the company's semi-annual financial report.

(emphasis mine)

World seeing ‘greatest monetary policy experiment in history’ - Rothschild

Impossible to predict.

Very interesting.

 

OH...I think you forgot this part:

I don' think he's implying positives.

But hey you can

 

Thats ^^^^^ playing the numbers game and eventually some one will be "accurate".

 

I see what you did there. Instead of addressing my question:

You argued against a claim I didn't make.

 

From the Artricle:

Its pretty obvious that monetary policy has failed.

You cant see any positives? Or Just not sure Exactly what those "Unintended Consequences"
might be?

Very interesting.

 

William White, the banker who predicted 2008 crisis, warns of another crash | This is Money

William White was the Head at the Bank International Settlements ..The Central Bank of Central banks.

The Man Nobody Wanted to Hear: Global Banking Economist Warned of Coming Crisis - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International

Listening to him, that is, and not to his rival of many years, the once-powerful former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, Alan Greenspan. Greenspan, who was reverentially known as "The Maestro," was celebrated as the greatest central banker of all time -- until the US real estate bubble burst and the crash began.

Before then, no one in the world of central banks would have dared to openly criticize Greenspan's successful policy of cheap money. No one except White, that is.

White and his team of experts observed the real estate bubble developing in the United States. They criticized the increasingly impenetrable securitization business, vehemently pointed out the perils of risky loans and provided evidence of the lack of credibility of the rating agencies. In their view, the reason for the lack of restraint in the financial markets was that there was simply too much cheap money available on the market.

Hes calling for another GFC.......The Unintended Consequences are already known by those in the "Know"

 

A bit more from William White

‘The next question is the extent to which the financial system is now vulnerable to the bankruptcy of some of these companies.’ White is convinced a debt reckoning is coming; he is less sure, however, when it will happen. He admits he has repeatedly thought a crisis would come sooner, and that recessions are impossible to predict.

‘What you can say is that everywhere you look, what you see is economies labouring under growing difficulties. You can see potential trigger points, but there are real limits to our understanding. Predicting exactly what will happen and when is impossible.’

He also admits that in the past he has underestimated the extent to which central banks can reinvigorate economies with dramatic interest rate cuts.

Read more: ​

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3445861/Look-heading-crash-warns-William-White-central-banker-predicted-2008-crisis.html#ixzz5CuMvRswD​

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Interesting @turk.

Very interesting.

 

Again you raise the "positives" you claim I keep seeing except I have not made that claim. It is dishonest to argue that I have made a claim that I did not make.

You claim you know exactly what will happen next then quote Rothschild who said:

"We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30 percent of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale"
​

then you quote William White who said:

"The next question is the extent to which the financial system is now vulnerable to the bankruptcy of some of these companies.’ White is convinced a debt reckoning is coming; he is less sure, however, when it will happen. He admits he has repeatedly thought a crisis would come sooner, and that recessions are impossible to predict."​

The people you are quoting are contradicting your position that you can predict what happens next.

 

Oh I see what you've done here. You have misrepresented what he has said by taking out of Context to support your point.

He is obviously talking about the TIMING of these Events not That y
they will EVENTAUATE.

Anything else you'd like to Twist and Distort to suit your Narrative?

Very Interesting

 

I'm assuming this is the point of the Royal Commission.

 

Sorry, where was the bit where he said we are heading into a depression? I must have missed that or you are misrepresentating him.

Anyone else you would like to misrepresent?

 

Right here:

 

Depression is ridiculously unlikely. Suppose we had a huge asset price crash, a real doozy, similar to some of the big ones that have happened in many cities over the years. The outcome would be an on average 30-60% slump, but remember this will be contained mostly to city fringe assets, new developments etc that stall. It is a median. The majority of assets and the majority of investors will see a temporary dip and a buying opportunity. Most investors would be fine. Hell most home owners would be fine. Only the very recent buyers, who refused to reposition themselves, will really suffer. The majority will take a hit to the ego at best. Remember prices have grown in many cases more than 100% in a decade or so.

A crash would cause a 2-5 year price slump and recession followed by a rapid recovery for most assets. The oversupply will be swallowed up quickly because stalled projects tend to either get bulldozed or repurposed or held off till demand rises. Price drops cause great opportunities. The economy will keep on chugging and will in many ways benefit. Remember in an asset bubble, the rise is the damage, not the fall. The rise encourages inexperienced investors to snap up crap assets like they're candy using too much debt: does that really describe the people of the forum? No.

Corrections take the heat out of markets that got stupid. They don't end economies. They tend to benefit stocks and company growth in the long run by redirecting investment. When prices come down, people tend to be more comfortable spending, which helps the economy. If a big correction happens the world won't end.

 

What exactly will cause this Rapid Recovery?

 

"The world is facing a new crisis caused by an explosion in debt. So warns William White, the central banker who famously predicted the crisis of 2008."

He is predicting a crisis. 2008 was a crisis. Was 2008 a depression?

No. He does not specify what form the crisis will take. It could be:

• a long slow deleveraging
• a recession
• a depression

He doesn't say.

 

That's an interesting point. Australian households have saved nearly $1.1 trillion in cash a deposits. If there was a crisis causing prices to come down, it is likely at some point people would start spending again. As Australians continue to save, how much will they have available to spend and how much will they spend at that point? These are interesting things to consider, not disregard

 

Since you missed here it is again:

While you argue semantics the realities will be very painful.

He explicitly states that it will be worse than 2008>

Ben Bernanke: The 2008 Financial Crisis Was Worse Than The Great Depression

And yet Ben Bernanke stated that 2008 was worse than the Great Depression.

I guess its pretty obvious to some how bad it will be.