Crash looming

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by hash_investor, 30th May, 2017.

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  1. bunkai

    bunkai Well-Known Member

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    ANZs online borrowing power calculator refers you to call regardless of what you enter at the moment ;)
     
  2. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    You can see it coming
     
  3. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    The clue is in the first line

    "Imported capital helped drive an investment boom in Australia during the 1870s and 1880s."

    Have we had an investment boom in Australia? or have we had just moderate booms in Sydney and Melbourne residential property.

    "A city block in Melbourne almost doubled in value in a couple of months in late 1887, while the average price of land in Sydney increased by more than 80 per cent from 1880 to 1884."

    How do the current Sydney and Melbourne booms look compared to that?

    Sydney 2012–17 +64%
    Melbourne 2012–17 +35%

    Source: https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/HousingAustraliaFinal_Flipsnack.pdf

    What about other Australian Capitals? What about the stock market?

    What boom?

    If there is going to be bust, shouldn't there be some kind of boom first?
     
  4. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    Figures show how boom brought wealth to WA | PerthNow

     
  5. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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  6. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    Queensland’s domestic economic upturn continues

    Following the "End of the Mining Boom"
     
  7. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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  8. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    https://www.austrade.gov.au/News/Ec...d-facts-of-the-2015-benchmark-report-location

    [​IMG]

    Let me know if you have any other questions.
     
  9. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Has there been a boom in the stockmarket in Australia in the last 10 years?

    Has there been a boom in the Perth property market in the last 10 years?

    Has there been a boom in the Darwin property market in the last 10 years?

    Has there been a boom in the Adelaide property market in the last 10 years?

    How about Port Headland? Newman? Moranbah?

    Didn't think so.

    What boom?
     
  10. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    YES:
    2009 Low: 3121
    2018 High: 6169

    The Major Economic Centres have Boomed.

    NSW 33% of National GDP
    VIC 22% of GDP
    QLD 19% of GDP

    [​IMG]

    Looks like Perth had a Huge increase from 2000. Nice big Boom!

    [​IMG]
    Darwin too.

    [​IMG]
    Adelaide also.

    :D
     
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  11. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    Has anyone looked at the Nasdaq index recently and see the similarities from 2000 & 2008...
     
  12. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    2018 - 2000 = 18 years. Your maths certainly checks out.
     
  13. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    According to your chart Adelaide is worth less than 10 years ago.

    Nice boom.
     
  14. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    OH...Sorry only the last 10 years matter? They Boomed hard from 2000!

    Nitpicking I see.
     
  15. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    Does the previous 10 year period not suit your narrative of "NO Boom"

     
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  16. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    Maybe the Economist can help:

    How Australia broke the record for economic growth

    What Record...
    What Boom...;)
     
  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Were the booms that caused the last 2 depressions in the 10 years before the depressions? Or 10 years before that, followed by 10 years of correction then depression?

    The reason I am asking is that I don't think there was a boom, 10 years of correction then depression last time round.

    Is the Australian economy booming now? Nope. Then the economy is not in the boom stage of the economic cycle. The boom ended 10 years ago. What happens after a boom?
     
  18. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    You keep moving the Goalposts in the hope that some how if it isn't Exactly like last time or the way you think it should be then it can't possibly happen.

    Booms lead to Busts....Plain and Simple.

    Maybe you can explain why 27 years of uninterrupted growth is a Record?
     
  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    There is a book, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff

    The in book,

    "[The Authors] catalogue every financial crisis that they could find going back nearly eight centuries; covering 66 countries; spanning banking, sovereign debt, currency, and inflation crises. They track the levels of debt (both external and internal), real GDP, real house prices, inflation, exchange rates, trade balances, capital flows, and commodity prices, both before and after crises."

    The important note here is they do not track a single data point: personal debt.

    The Authors have found:

    "Crises tend to occur either at the peak of a boom in real housing prices or right after the bust."

    https://www.cis.org.au/app/uploads/...agazine/2010-autumn/26-1-10-brendan-duong.pdf

    So, where are we. At the peak of a boom in real housing prices? Nope. Or right after the bust? Nope. We are neither.

    But perhaps that is not the real question. Australia has had at least 6 recessions and 3 depressions.

    So why is the next downturn a depression and not a recession? What's really different about this time that it's not going to be a recession like usual?
     
  20. Simon_S

    Simon_S Well-Known Member

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    Did you forget the GFC?

    Did you forget that Great Experiment never tried before by Central banks?

    World seeing ‘greatest monetary policy experiment in history’ - Rothschild

    Can you tell me where in M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff work they had studied previous periods of ZIRP NIRP and QE?

    The level of DEBT.