COVID-19 vaccines & treatments 2021

I think what people are forgetting is how exponential growth works. It's not like the seasonal flu. I doubt any hospital would have overflowing ICU beds with seasonal flu, because it doesn't spread with such wild abandon, but that is the reality with Covid.

 

Actually - it is exactly like the seasonal flu in that hospitals do regularly run out of beds each year due to the seasonal flu and it does spread with wild abandon - it is a virus, that's what they do.

But the seasonal flu is definitely not as deadly as COVID - and I suspect it's not considered as contagious as the delta strain either (I'd need to look up the data to confirm this).

We manage the seasonal flu by way of our annual vaccination program - but it still manages to kill quite a few people each year.

• 2021: 0 flu deaths so far
• 2020: 37 flu deaths
• 2019: 812 flu deaths
• 2018: 57 flu deaths
• 2017: 745 flu deaths
• 2016: 92 flu deaths

Global deaths from flu are significantly higher - most likely due to lack of access to seasonal vaccines and lack of access to suitable healthcare in many developing countries.

 

Prevention is a fantastic goal - but you can't just turn around and magically improve the health status of the majority of the population in the short term. Prevention is a long term goal.

People with diabetes or high blood pressure or liver disease or cancer don't just change their health status within the space of a few weeks. They also don't tend to die suddenly at a young age in large numbers - many of these diseases are manageable using medication and lifestyle changes - and people suffering from them can usually live a full life.

You know what can magically help people with health issues known to be vulnerable to COVID? Vaccines! This technology is absolutely saving lives in very large numbers - including those people who have existing health issues.

This focus some people have on co-morbidities is quite disturbing - it's like saying that anyone who has diabetes isn't worth saving, or someone who has kidney failure isn't worth saving, or someone who has cancer isn't worth saving, or someone with liver disease isn't worth saving.

By dismissing the COVID deaths as a "co-morbidity" problem - you are basically telling that anyone with an existing health issue is less important than those people fortunate enough to be considered "completely healthy".

My dad was diagnosed with diabetes recently - he will have it for the rest of his life. He isn't likely to die in the next few years and is still a valuable contributing member of society - but if he contracts COVID, he is at greater risk of severe illness.

My mum had liver disease since her 20s - she eventually died of cancer at the age of 67 - but were she still alive - she would be at significant risk from COVID because of her illness that she successfully managed for over 40 years.

Are these people less worth saving from COVID because of their other illnesses that allowed them to live well beyond their initial diagnosis?

Co-morbidities shouldn't be a death sentence - so don't dismiss them as the only justification for why people are dying from COVID.

But that is exactly what these vaccines are - they are like a silver bullet that prevents large numbers of people from dying unnecessarily.

No, the vaccines are not perfect and do not provide 100% protection. Yes, there is an element of risk with a small number of adverse reactions. But the risks of dying prematurely from COVID are absolutely enormous in comparison.

We absolutely should be aiming to improve the health of our population - but that will NOT solve this COVID crisis here today. Vaccinating as much of the population as we can, and controlling the growth of this outbreak, absolutely will.

 

Thanks - I did a quick bit of googling to see if I could find more information.

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 ... study calculated an estimated R0 at around 5.8 - much higher than the initial estimates of 2-3 !!

I found mention of the flu having an R0 of around 1.3

I read other reports that put the original Wuhan strain at 2.7 and then calculate delta strain at 6 ... so the numbers vary a bit.

Either way - it's pretty clear the orignal strain is definitely much higher than the flu and the delta strain much higher than the original strain!

 

People who are vaccinated will still get sick. People with co-morbidities who are vaccinated will also get sick. Some of these people may also die. That is a given - the vaccines are not 100% effective. We know this.

But these deaths will become a very small minority compared to people who are not vaccinated - especially once we have a large enough vaccinated population to provide us with effective herd immunity, since the virus will not have active infection vectors by which to spread to the more vulnerable in the community.

I think we might eventually get to the point where vaccination is largely a matter of choice - like it is currently with the flu vaccine.

But until then - we need to aim for a degree of herd immunity to protect the vulnerable - especially those who cannot be vaccinated for health reasons. A policy of vaccinating the at risk population and then letting everyone else decide is not going to acheive the level of protection we need to confidently open up our borders anytime soon.

I am indeed watching very closely - and the data so far is pretty compelling. Vaccinating the majority of the population is working to prevent hospitalisations and save lives, even in the face of the rampant delta strain. Death rates in the UK, US and Israel are significantly lower at this point in the case growth phase than at the equivalent point in any other previous growth phase.

The vaccines do seem to be acheiving exactly what they were promised to do. It is far too early to say that this (vaccine rollout) is the beginning of the end of COVID or anything like that - but it is definitely helping, the data is unequivocal so far.

 

No extra Pfizer for NSW, but speed-up of first doses gets green light

New South Wales will not receive any additional doses of the Pfizer vaccine, but the state will speed up the delivery of first doses, Prime Minister Scott Morrison says.

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Instead, Mr Morrison said NSW would administer more first doses of Pfizer, by increasing the time between the two jabs from three to six weeks.

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This is consistent with the approach used in the UK where they delayed the second dose of Pfizer vaccines (against Pfizer's advice) to ensure more first doses could be given out in a timely manner.

That being said I'm going to be pretty ****** off if they cancel or try to reschedule existing bookings for second doses. That's also going to be an administrative nightmare given the online booking system used where both doses were booked in at the same time.

 

What reason did they give @Lizzie ?

I've called to confirm my final jab next Friday and I've also had the text reminder, so I'm hoping I get there and can get it as planned.