Covid 19 price correction: Place your bets!

This might be a little bit similar to the other coronavirus market thread, but I thought it would be interesting to see everyone's guesses.

So the question is: What is the average price correction across Australia at the bottom of the market?

Please note that this is public poll.

 

I think the property price drops will vary based by state. NSW seems to be the hardest hit. Ultimately it will be employment that determines price drops. At this stage I've voted for a 5-10% decrease in value over the next 12 months.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/wor...l-staff-as-downturn-hits-20200317-p54avv.html

 

I think upper end luxury market $4m+ will take a big hit. Anyone who needs to sell will not be making the decision lightly and likely will have business trouble. Snapped up by opportunists.

I think the median market will be hardly affected. Gov stimulus and cheap money should protect the buy and holds. Its a turbulent time, low sense of security will likely bring people together and delay any relocations, employees will be staying firm. Supply and demand should both drop.

On the announcement of a Vaccine there will be frenzy on stocks and property.

 

House price impact will be based on credit markets + employment markets.
If they hold up OK, then comments above will likely hold true and housing market will end up OK. If not, could be in for some pain.

 

There will be a drop, but anything more than 40% means we're all turning into zombies.

There should be a sliding scale too, as in some property types will be hit harder. Ie. modern small city apartment is the first that pop into mind. A medium sized house in a sought after suburb will be hit last.

 

Sold within minutes at Auction

20 Dryden Avenue, Carlingford, NSW 2118 https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-carlingford-133033222

 

Sold today:
Sold 1 The Rampart, Castlecrag NSW 2068 on 17 Mar 2020 - 2016133099 | Domain
Sold yesterday:
Sold 19 The Scarp, Castlecrag NSW 2068 on 16 Mar 2020 - 2016097605 | Domain
Sold 290 Edinburgh Road, Castlecrag NSW 2068 on 16 Mar 2020 - 2016090925 | Domain

All sold before auction. The two sold yesterday were both $5M+

 

What's your point?

 

with all respect ,
Credit is dead in the water. I don’t see how josh think they will hold up. Lines of credit are being pulled left right and centre , you have a nudie as overdraft consider it gone

it’s not rocket science , understand what happened Uk in 2008 and repeat

just add some steroids .

anyone for a wager on Westpac nationalised ?

 

That’s a lot of Castlecrag sales. It’s such a tiny suburb with few properties ever trading hands so to see 3 sales in 2 days is strange. Wonder if they were owned by the same person.

 

There are 8 others currently on the market. Castlecrag is undergoing a generational change - empty nesters moving out of the large homes, often built on steep slopes, and a lot of returning expats with young/teenage kids moving in.

 

I’m not normally a pessimist but it is looking like it will be worse than than 90s recession, large scale job losses not seen in a generation. Qantas could be nationalised for a start. It could take years to really recover even after a vaccine is available, the economic damage will take some time to recover from. I hope I’m wrong.

 

Agent called me today to let me know they’ve received an offer over the quoted range prior to auction. An unconditional offer. Inner Melbourne at the lower end. It’s hard to tell what to make of it. Unconditional and over the range is good but it seemed underquoted anyway, at least for last months market.

 

K9 your on every thread with the mother of all doom and gloom. Give it a spell mate

 

I am just afraid when tenants start to have trouble with rent, and home owners with mortgage repayment, things can get worse. I heard that most casual workers are only covered (if they are fortunate) for 14 days of shutdown. What if the infection persist beyond that... So I voted for 10 to 15%. I feel this may be a bit worse than the previous down turn.

 

And another one today:
Sold 70 Linden Way, Castlecrag NSW 2068 on 17 Mar 2020 - 2016109371 | Domain

Spoke with 3 agents today at opens. Normal numbers looking for a Wednesday, agent feedback was there are many cashed up buyers looking and wanting to secure something before supply starts to dry up. Also mentioned was that there will be more private viewings, more pictures and videos, online auctions, and also staging adjustments to emphasize the work-from-home possibilities.

So my feeling is that the market in this area will remain strong, at least for some weeks or months.

 

I voted 15-20% I think the typical PPOR type property will barely be affected but rental stock will be hit relatively hard.

I believe home owners will do everything they can to keep their home in these times while renters will take every opportunity to get out of paying rent. If many are out of work for a few months it will be tough to evict a non paying tenant as finding a new one will be near impossible unless you have something very unique to the market. The confidence in a rental property being a safe investment will be eroded and may take years for sentiment to recover

 

I was listening to Triple M this morning and they had a suggestion that employers should pay employees the 9.5% super in cash instead of super to temporarily give people access to more money. This would be enacted temporarily for 6-12 months until the coranavirus subsides. Kevin Foley (ex SA Treasurer) also spoke on Triple M this morning and suggested that unemployed workers should be given access to their super to be able to maintain mortgage repayments. There's no point having a pot of gold in retirement if you have no roof over your heard.

 

Yeah, nah. If this neoliberal government starts nationalising things all bets are off.

 

The problem with suspending super contributions for now is that it's effectively DCA in reverse - unless the end of the world is nigh, now is the time to be contributing. I tend to a similar view on allowing people to withdraw super, plus if huge numbers of people were allowed to do so the the market would crash even more as people tried to cash in before further falls.