Covid 19 price correction: Place your bets!

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by spludgey, 17th Mar, 2020.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
?

How much do you think the property market is going to drop?

Poll closed Tuesday at 4:55 PM.
  1. Not at all, it will increase in value!

    8.7%
  2. 0-5%

    11.1%
  3. 5-10%

    13.1%
  4. 10-15%

    13.1%
  5. 15%-20%

    19.0%
  6. 20%-30%

    19.4%
  7. 30%-40%

    6.7%
  8. 40%-60%

    6.3%
  9. 60%-80%

    0.8%
  10. 80%-100%

    1.6%
  1. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,907
    Location:
    Sydney
    This might be a little bit similar to the other coronavirus market thread, but I thought it would be interesting to see everyone's guesses.

    So the question is: What is the average price correction across Australia at the bottom of the market?

    Please note that this is public poll.
     
    The Grinch likes this.
  2. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,501
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Redom likes this.
  3. QldKoolies

    QldKoolies Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    28th Sep, 2018
    Posts:
    229
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I think upper end luxury market $4m+ will take a big hit. Anyone who needs to sell will not be making the decision lightly and likely will have business trouble. Snapped up by opportunists.

    I think the median market will be hardly affected. Gov stimulus and cheap money should protect the buy and holds. Its a turbulent time, low sense of security will likely bring people together and delay any relocations, employees will be staying firm. Supply and demand should both drop.

    On the announcement of a Vaccine there will be frenzy on stocks and property.
     
    Observer and +-5 like this.
  4. Redom

    Redom Finance Strategist Business Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,197
    Location:
    Sydney (Australia Wide)
    House price impact will be based on credit markets + employment markets.
    If they hold up OK, then comments above will likely hold true and housing market will end up OK. If not, could be in for some pain.
     
  5. chunho01

    chunho01 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    4th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    54
    Location:
    VIC
    There will be a drop, but anything more than 40% means we're all turning into zombies.

    There should be a sliding scale too, as in some property types will be hit harder. Ie. modern small city apartment is the first that pop into mind. A medium sized house in a sought after suburb will be hit last.
     
  6. Never giveup

    Never giveup Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    13th Oct, 2018
    Posts:
    397
    Location:
    Sydney
    spludgey and Gockie like this.
  7. FredBear

    FredBear Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    7th Aug, 2018
    Posts:
    169
    Location:
    Sydney & Abroad
  8. jprops

    jprops Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    774
    Location:
    Sydney
    Timb89 likes this.
  9. K974

    K974 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    103
    Location:
    Qld
    with all respect ,
    Credit is dead in the water. I don’t see how josh think they will hold up. Lines of credit are being pulled left right and centre , you have a nudie as overdraft consider it gone

    it’s not rocket science , understand what happened Uk in 2008 and repeat

    just add some steroids .

    anyone for a wager on Westpac nationalised ?
     
  10. Gockie

    Gockie Unicycle everywhere... except after ankle surgery Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    10,455
    Location:
    Sydney
    That’s a lot of Castlecrag sales. It’s such a tiny suburb with few properties ever trading hands so to see 3 sales in 2 days is strange. Wonder if they were owned by the same person.
     
  11. FredBear

    FredBear Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    7th Aug, 2018
    Posts:
    169
    Location:
    Sydney & Abroad
    There are 8 others currently on the market. Castlecrag is undergoing a generational change - empty nesters moving out of the large homes, often built on steep slopes, and a lot of returning expats with young/teenage kids moving in.
     
  12. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,833
    Location:
    FNQ
    I’m not normally a pessimist but it is looking like it will be worse than than 90s recession, large scale job losses not seen in a generation. Qantas could be nationalised for a start. It could take years to really recover even after a vaccine is available, the economic damage will take some time to recover from. I hope I’m wrong.
     
  13. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    25th Jun, 2017
    Posts:
    657
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Agent called me today to let me know they’ve received an offer over the quoted range prior to auction. An unconditional offer. Inner Melbourne at the lower end. It’s hard to tell what to make of it. Unconditional and over the range is good but it seemed underquoted anyway, at least for last months market.
     
  14. MC1

    MC1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    265
    Location:
    Melbourne
    K9 your on every thread with the mother of all doom and gloom. Give it a spell mate
     
    The Prestige, Codie and Hodge like this.
  15. Warrenkh018

    Warrenkh018 Member

    Joined:
    27th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    17
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I am just afraid when tenants start to have trouble with rent, and home owners with mortgage repayment, things can get worse. I heard that most casual workers are only covered (if they are fortunate) for 14 days of shutdown. What if the infection persist beyond that... So I voted for 10 to 15%. I feel this may be a bit worse than the previous down turn.
     
  16. FredBear

    FredBear Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    7th Aug, 2018
    Posts:
    169
    Location:
    Sydney & Abroad
    And another one today:
    Sold 70 Linden Way, Castlecrag NSW 2068 on 17 Mar 2020 - 2016109371 | Domain

    Spoke with 3 agents today at opens. Normal numbers looking for a Wednesday, agent feedback was there are many cashed up buyers looking and wanting to secure something before supply starts to dry up. Also mentioned was that there will be more private viewings, more pictures and videos, online auctions, and also staging adjustments to emphasize the work-from-home possibilities.

    So my feeling is that the market in this area will remain strong, at least for some weeks or months.
     
  17. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    11th Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    322
    Location:
    Sydney
    I voted 15-20% I think the typical PPOR type property will barely be affected but rental stock will be hit relatively hard.

    I believe home owners will do everything they can to keep their home in these times while renters will take every opportunity to get out of paying rent. If many are out of work for a few months it will be tough to evict a non paying tenant as finding a new one will be near impossible unless you have something very unique to the market. The confidence in a rental property being a safe investment will be eroded and may take years for sentiment to recover
     
  18. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,501
    Location:
    Adelaide
    I was listening to Triple M this morning and they had a suggestion that employers should pay employees the 9.5% super in cash instead of super to temporarily give people access to more money. This would be enacted temporarily for 6-12 months until the coranavirus subsides. Kevin Foley (ex SA Treasurer) also spoke on Triple M this morning and suggested that unemployed workers should be given access to their super to be able to maintain mortgage repayments. There's no point having a pot of gold in retirement if you have no roof over your heard.
     
    Never giveup likes this.
  19. shorty

    shorty Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    435
    Location:
    straya
    Yeah, nah. If this neoliberal government starts nationalising things all bets are off.
     
  20. Tony3008

    Tony3008 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    457
    Location:
    Docklands, Victoria
    The problem with suspending super contributions for now is that it's effectively DCA in reverse - unless the end of the world is nigh, now is the time to be contributing. I tend to a similar view on allowing people to withdraw super, plus if huge numbers of people were allowed to do so the the market would crash even more as people tried to cash in before further falls.
     
    Silverson, Joynz and Heinz57 like this.