COVID-19 in other countries

Not according to the experts:

“Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be substantially higher than that of most strains of the flu.”

Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu

 

Fair and reasonable. But no one is dying just of Covid. There are always co-morbities which are not being reported, and this makes the data unreliable. For example, there was a young man in the US who tried to commit suicide; they later found covid19 in his system, and he was marked as a covid death.

Again, real and serious, but also overstated.

 

Another overstated and unreliable article I guess:

“Using a more sophisticated calculation called the infection-fatality rate, paired with the past few months’ worth of data, the latest best estimates show that COVID-19 is around 50 to 100 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, on average.“

How scientists know COVID-19 is way deadlier than the flu

 

So let's assume you are right on the seriousness of the virus, and I am happy to go there.

Does that justify and full lockdown of the global economy? This is the real debate.

 

It is not about me being right, I am not a health expert but I do read/listen to well-respected and reliable sources of health advice.

Not like some people including some world leaders .

My background/experience is in project management. One of the elements of this discipline is risk analysis/management.

When one is presented with a situation which is new/has a lot of unknowns, then the intelligent approach is caution.

Some leaders/nations are taking the intelligent and cautious approach. Yeah, their economies will take a hit.

Others leaders/nations aren’t. Their population are currently taking a hit and, in time their economies will take a bigger hit.

History shows that economies recover from taking a hit.

History also shows that dead people don’t.

I don’t believe any country is in “full lockdown”. Australia hasn’t and currently definitely isn’t. Not even NZ ever went into full lockdown.

So, no debate on that front.

I believe partial lockdowns have (so far) worked for many countries, including NZ and Australia. No debate there either.

 

I guess we have to assume the authorities of those countries which went into partial lockdown are too stupid to know their respective economies would take at hit i.e. healthy population equals a healthy economy. No health, no wealth.

 

If your "healthy" 25yo in Accounts payable gets it and gives it to 1-10 others, who then each give it to 1-10 others, then we have a major problem... So we need to prevent or suppress the virus from being in the system.

 

True, but that is and has always been the risk we take when interacting with other people. That you may catch something and pass it on, including to old and vulnerable people, is not a new risk. It is an old risk, and it is important that we manage that risk of course.

The difference was that individuals and groups managed their own risks. Seems to have worked for many hundreds of years.

I am just against the callousness and heartlessness of the shutdown. I am not against sensible action taken to minimise spreading of the virus.

Certainly a very polarising issue it seems.

 

At what cost?

We can eliminate all bad things if we shut everything down, but we don't because that is silly. At what cost do we decide we don't want people to get sick?

 

I just don't see this highlighted part as being at all controversial. Firstly, it's a novel virus and we still don't fully understand how it interacts with all ailments or conditions- it may very well exacerbate those other issues and therefore increase mortality rate. Even if it isn't the underlying cause of death in some cases that in itself might be impossible to determine; it's therefore logical and cautious to presume that Covid is the significant factor given what is known so far. Furthermore, the guidance gives does not state that Covid is to be recorded as the underlying cause of death in situations when it is not present.

 

As Keirank pointed out last page we aren't in full shutdown at the moment and I would be against excessive measures as well. What, in the current measures we've employed, isn't sensible though? And if it isn't sensible you need to show why because it essentially goes against the actions of our largely responsible leaders (in the context of this pandemic) being briefed by many qualified experts who know far more than you or I.

 

I mistakenly thought most/all people knew that one way to grow an economy is to grow the population.

That is why countries encourage immigration, especially those with knowledge/skills/experience that the country has in short supply.

I can’t see how reducing a country population via killing lots of people when their deaths are avoidable is going to grow an economy.

I also mistakenly thought most/all people knew that unhealthy people are a drag on a country’s economy.

Evidence is now becoming available that more and more people who recover from COVID-19 are having long-term health issues with their lungs, heart, brain, ...

As younger folk tend to recover, countries that don’t lockdown could end up with lots of recovered people with long-term health issues for the rest of their lives.

Surely this will be a drag on the country’s economy for many years to come. I don’t understand why countries wouldn’t try to minimise this drag?

 

It's a ploy to wipe out the old, infirm & health compromised leaving more room for the young and strong Clears out those dependent on welfare, the masses of the unwashed (& unsanitised).

At least it will wipe out a few people and facilitate the transfer of intergenerational wealth (or legal action).

 

You go first.

No, no, I insist.

 

Literally or figuratively

 

Aus did a good job, I think. 300 cases a day pales compared to say Canada, which has a similar population but has 100,000 cases.

Vic failed because, in hindsight, while the Vic Govt had good intentions at heart, the enforcement was lax. For example, when people got fined by police for breaking rules initially, the Vic Govt/Police Force backtracked very quickly and reversed all those fines probably because it was unpopular. That created a feeling that you don't need to follow the rules because the police aren't going to do much about it anyway.

Then of course we now all know the issue is with these quarantine hotels... the Vic Govt was offered ADF and AFP assistance in guarding the quarantined people. But instead that offer was not taken up, so loosely supervised firms sent security guards ... as a result the quarantined people were roaming around the CBD having lunch just as the economy was opening up and people were coming back out, when they're supposed to be quarantine, and in the worser cases the guards were partying with these people. Add to that people refusing to test because of their 'human rights' (at the expense of other people's health of course) or they thought it was a 'conspiracy theory' (another example of lax enforcement).

So still early days and could be gotten under control. But the Premier needs to step up and make some unpopular decisions. Or will he be too worried about the next election.

If you went onto worldometers.com and sorted the chart by infected people/million population, and then discounting the countries which probably have inadequate testing/unreported data, you'd probably put Japan, Korea, Macau, China, Taiwan, HK up there. Which is ironic because they are much more densely populated. So they really need to draw from the experiences there. Interestingly NZ and Australia have the lowest infection rate amongst western countries on that list, but higher than the East Asian economies, so at least they're doing something right.

 

I am aiming to have nothing to transfer!!!

Will that mean I will live longer/no need to bop me off?

 

https://www.theage.com.au/world/nor...er-attending-covid-party-20200713-p55bii.html

Irony of 2020!