COVID-19 in other countries

Spain and Italy were the first countries in Europe to lockdown, and continue to have the most extreme lockdowns (I cant even go for a walk). The exponential growth here was very high, it was doubling every 2 days from the start of March for 2 weeks, then doubled every 3 days for a week, then every 4 days since. Some mistakes were made at the beginning in allowing events to proceed when there were still only a few hundred cases (most notably a football match in Bergamo Italy with 3500 Spanish visitors, closing Madrid Uni residences causing students to disperse over the country, and international womens day), but no country could cope with that rate of growth. The country was shutdown 19 days after the first case in mainland Spain. Most other countries had more luck in earlier warning and much slower early internal transmission rate. Some countries have used that luck, some have not.

 

Italy has been having issues with viruses for a long time now so their numbers are not a reflection of what will happen in other countries. The less healthy and the older a populace, the higher the death rate. The US will be shocker unfortunately.
I think Australia is in a relatlively good position compared to many other countries even though we have an old demographic as we are fairly healthy as a nation

"In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. A mortality rate of 10.7 per 1,000 inhabitants was observed in the winter season 2014/2015 (more than 375,000 deaths in absolute terms), corresponding to an estimated 54,000 excess deaths (+9.1%) as compared to 2014 (
Signorelli and Odone, 2016
), representing the highest reported mortality rate since the Second World War in Italy (
UN, 2019
). Although the above-described excess mortality created concern among researchers, health authorities and public health experts, it has been challenging to identify its determinants "

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

 

This is interesting
In US all essential workers and people going back to work must have their temp taken prior to going into workplace and prior to leaving.

Also companies must provide more ventilation

US/NY starting to see some positive signs, isolation is working

 

This is the point, drastic isolation is working.
So what happens when you start to relax the rules to get people back to work?
No more isolation... So not working anymore.

I want to see the economy back to normal as much as anyone, but do you think if we open too soon and see a new spike we just end up back where we started?
Plus businesses may need to invest capital to re-open, only to be forced to shut down again?

 

Drastic isolation probably hasn't even fed into the stats yet. It's claimed there's a 2 week lag with the heavier restrictions coming in at the end of March. So next week dare I say sub 50 daily cases nation-wide!

I hope but don't believe we will ever have a vaccine. Sars which is also a coronavirus occurred 18 years ago with still no vaccine.

 

I recognise there are many variables involved but a death rate of 45/1m of population v world of 11.4. Ouch.

 

USA is still/currently way behind Spain and Italy who are at 316 and 292 respectively per million .

At those rates, USA will have lost 100,000 people. Might still happen, who knows with the current president steering the ship.

 

I do not know how accurate this so I'll take it "as is" is but aspects of this ABC article doesn't make good reading depending on where you live and approaches by relevant authorities.

What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight

 

Its heading in the right direction Grovenor should know

Good news for NY


Cuomo: New York's coronavirus hospitalization rate a 'very good sign' and 'headed in the right direction'

 

Um, you sure?

 

You need cheering up.....you looking at glass half empty

 

Maybe this guy know whats happening

Remember charts wont necessarily show the full picture..... lots of moving bits and pieces

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/nyp...navirus-patients-on-ventilators-improved/amp/

 

Got it. I should have realised.

 

I would have thought some good news is welcome

Anyway, so happy you are always in the background to correct me, very grateful