Health & Family COVID-19 in Australia

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by paulF, 31st Mar, 2020.

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  1. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    Last edited by a moderator: 31st Mar, 2020
  2. Gockie

    Gockie Unicycle - get exhausted but never two tired Premium Member

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    I truly hope so.
    2 biggest factors imo.
    1. The minimization of travel and quarantining of overseas travellers and
    2. People have got the social distancing message into their heads now (finally).

    Let's hope it continues this trend.
     
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  3. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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  4. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    No need to think about it. It's happening, at least according to the data the curve shows
     
  5. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    You can't sit in a cafe now in NSW - all cafes and restaurants are takeaway / delivery only. You aren't supposed to congregate inside while waiting for your food/drink either.

    Not sure what measures they have implemented in other states.
     
  6. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    You cannot take two of three data points and extrapolate that out to show any kind of meaningful conclusion. Much more data is required before we can have any kind of confidence in a trend.

    I get that we all want or need to believe that we're past the worst of it yet - but I think it's a much safer approach to assume we're not. We can hope that we are, but please don't expect it.

    My wife (Clinical Nurse Consultant with the NSW Health Counter Disaster Unit) is petrified that everyone simply looks at a couple of numbers that have been published and assumes that everything is fine now and stops being vigilant and tries to return to normal behaviours - which will just makes things worse and extend the time taken for us to get this under control, possibly creating a 2nd wave of infections.

    There is a reason the govt keeps saying "6 months" about measures because we need to be in the mindset that it may well take that long and we need to keep doing the right things to avoid a 2nd wave of community infection.

    Just remember that it only takes 1 infected person to start a pandemic, or to create a second wave of infection.

    There is plenty of documented history here too - different cities in the US had different approaches to managing the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak with very different results - How some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemic

    Two standouts to illustrate my example:

    upload_2020-3-31_9-21-35.png upload_2020-3-31_9-22-50.png

    To be clear @paulF - I'm not directing this at you, this is just a general call for everyone to remain vigilant and to keep doing our social distancing, our handwashing, everything we can do to limit the spread - even if numbers do start to show a clear downward trend. The worst thing we can do is to start relaxing before we get to zero active cases.
     
    Last edited: 15th Apr, 2020
  7. Bunbury

    Bunbury Well-Known Member

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    Fingers crossed it continues that way. You would expect that closing the borders to international arrivals whilst continuing to restrict testing mostly to those who have been overseas that you would see the numbers drop in the short term. NSW alone has 228 cases with an unknown source of community transmission. We won't have a clearer picture of where we stand until the testing criteria expands.

    People need to stop being idiots and just stay home.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/...id-19-curve-experts-warn-20200330-p54fe0.html
     
    Last edited: 31st Mar, 2020
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  8. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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  9. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I agree - we had a massive spike early due to an influx of returning Australian's, via cruise ships and repatriated - Not helped by rather pathetic testing. I'm not calling anything for another 2 weeks
     
  10. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for that Simon and completely agreed and not suggesting we should relax any of the lockouts and social distancing measures. I just think that the measures are starting to work and in two weeks time , we will have less cases for sure, IF , we keep the current measures.

    @geoffw , data discrepancies are a real issue especially when it's coming from a government Health organisation.
     
  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    The only source we should be relying on is the information coming from Australian Government Department of Health - this is your source of truth.

    New and cumulative COVID-19 cases in Australia by notification date

    All other sources should be considered unreliable. They can only get their information from the Australian Govt anyway.

    The worldometers info is most likely updated in a different timezone (it clearly says "0:00 GMT+0" on the chart), which could explain discrepancies there.

    Also note this warning, which might be relevant to this discussion:

    New and cumulative COVID-19 cases in Australia by notification date

    This graph shows new cases of COVID-19 in Australia by the date we were notified of them, as well as a cumulative total of all Australian cases. We update this graph every day. Interpret the most recently reported new cases shown in the graph with caution as there can be delays in reporting.

    So while there may be a drop shown in the most recent data - it may also be that they simply haven't collated all of the information yet and there might be more cases to be added.
     
  12. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    The big issue with the simplistic data shown in the charts is that we are seeing two very different effects right now.

    The peaks we've seen in the past week or so are from imported cases - which is naturally going to drop as border controls and travel restrictions take effect.

    What we actually need to be concerned about is community transmission, because it can be much more difficult to track and isn't necessarily being tested for (because people don't meet the risk criteria).

    Testing levels have dropped overall because there aren't as many at risk people entering the country. So identified cases will drop as well. That doesn't necessarily mean that the spread of the virus is decreasing - it just means that we don't know where it will be next.

    We're entering the next phase of the fight now - it's no longer about stopping it coming into the country, it's about identifying outbreaks within the community and working to contain them.

    We're already seeing hotspots in Bondi and Waverley as well as the Barossa Valley in SA - and I'm sure there are others emerging around the country.

    What I'd like to see from the DoH is a chart showing the number of new cases excluding imported cases. This will show us community transmission rates - and that curve is likely to still be growing - it's just been hidden because of the sudden influx of imported cases.
     
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  13. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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  14. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    They might have access to the underlying data and so can extract the imported cases to show community transmission.

    I was going to request the DoH publish the raw data.
     
  15. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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  16. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    I get that citizens are still returning home but seriously we have to stop flights completely. I mean the Govt is now looking to fine anyone seen on the streets without a valid reason but people spending time on an aircraft (international or domestic) ie in a confined space for hours is ok?

    And don't get me started on that cruise ship bungle. Those things are perfect virus incubators.

    There may well be some people who left for holidays before things started to fall apart but I'm sure there are also many who left in mid/late Feb knowing full well the virus was spreading...and now clamouring to come home.
     
  17. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I meant if they could publish a table/spreadsheet of new cases by source and update it daily (including historic information) - then other people could do their own manipulation of the data to show other things not shown on the DoH website.
     
  18. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    If they are Australian citizens, we have to let them come home - if they can get on a flight.

    That's why we are putting everyone up in quarantine hotels for 14 days when the arrive in the country.
     
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  19. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    It is still all about ME!
    I have heard the Government or rather the advisory panel is to release the data. Get ready for 5,000 or so misinterpretations.
     
  20. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    And domestic flights?