COVID-19 impacts on the Australian economy & housing market

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Redom, 17th Mar, 2020.

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  1. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    Just glad that none of us actually makes the decisions.
     
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    "Short term" was originally 6 months. Fair enough.

    Victoria has just extended the moratorium until March next year - 12 months. That's not short term.

    No - what we have now is a situation where the property is now impaired because the tenant cannot pay the market rent and can't be forced to move out and find a cheaper property, like what would normally happen.

    So if you have two identical properties next door to each other. One property has a tenant who is not affected by COVID-19 and continues to pay market rent. The other property has a tenant who has been affected by COVID-19 and has negotiated a substantially reduced rent and cannot be removed.

    If the owner can't afford to hold and puts it on the market tenanted - they cannot expect to receive market value for the property because the tenant is locked in for up to another 6 months at reduced rent.

    The property next door gets put on the market at the same time with a tenant paying market rent - which property is worth more?

    In a normal market, people who cannot afford to pay the market rent will be forced to move out and then if enough people are affected, rental demand and prices will drop until a new equilibrium is found.

    Now, instead we have a severely distorted market where you cannot rely on market pricing for any realistic guidance.

    How is a bank going to value a property where the tenant does not have to pay market rent for up to 12 months (or at least 6 months from now in Victoria) ?
     
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  3. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    Rental eviction moratorium extended in Victoria

    Seems like a whole heap of things to help out in the above scenarios.

    Additionally, landlords who provide rent relief to tenants impacted by Covid-19 will be eligible for 2021 and 2020 land tax relief.
     
  4. bumskins

    bumskins Well-Known Member

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    I would agree a moratorium is unfair if the Government wasn't doing its bit.
    But let's be honest, where would the market be without massive Government stimulus (ala jobkeeper/job seeker) ? There would be 100'000's of household's unable to pay current or even any rent. That would decimate both the Rental & Sales market.

    Individual's, industry's, business's have all been unequally affected.
     
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  5. Jello_B

    Jello_B Well-Known Member

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    And people have had 6 months to contemplate the risk and make a decision. This was always a potential outcome.
    Do you seriously believe that a landlord can’t absorb $50-$100 a week which would likely be the rent reduction? It seems like you are making this sound worse than it is. Can you give me a real example of the situation you are describing.
    Not sure of the relevance of the bank valuation. The bank will value the property with consideration to the current circumstances not apply a simplistic formula of 1,000xweekly rent.
     
  6. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Well if everyone were selling their houses/shops because of distress, then the market would crater. Basic economics really. At that point these people will be broke, and guess who's funding their retirement. Taxpayers.

    By the way, on your point, why is society responsible for paying a salary to people who've lost their jobs but happy to let these retirees who try to not draw government-funded pension go under?

    What you're saying is just a classic case of governments picking winners and losers. Which is fine if that's what people want to vote in, but it has nothing to do with "risks attached to an investment"
     
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  7. Francesco

    Francesco Well-Known Member

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    Investors are severely disrupted by government and even their landlord insurance is rendered useless because they cannot evict the tenant. If the commercial landlord is helped out by compulsory 50% rent waiver owners must give when the loosened up Jobkeeper is given to the tenant, there can be nothing for the small dad and mum owner of the accommodation property that is tied up with the commercial tenant. If the small dad and mum investors do not have land tax in Victoria because they have retired in Queensland, they cannot get land tax concession that the Victorian government is so proudly announcing.

    Investors may buy insurance to reduce risk, but governments have increased their risks with the eviction moratorium. The rationale is incomprehensible because the principals of the commercial tenant company have homes to live in. Their businesses are just being supported as if they are irreplaceable. Great injustice is being dealt to the small owners.

    The small time owner is severely disadvantaged, while the company commercial tenant is helped as if it is a 'champ' providing lots of employment. If the commercial tenant had been allowed to fail as it should if it cannot survive on its own reserves, another operator would have taken its place and employment would still continue. As it is the Victorian government with the backing of the Commonwealth drags the intervention further down from September to December 2020 to March 2021, in a classic case of throwing 'good after bad'. How long can you take this fiasco and pulling along many dad and mum retired investors with it?

    This unjust situation placed by governments on small dad and mum owners who have a SME commercial tenant IMO can only be explained by their lack of representation in the pandemic planning of the National Cabinet, but the commercial tenants have won brilliantly. :eek:
     
    Last edited: 5th Sep, 2020
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  8. Jello_B

    Jello_B Well-Known Member

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    Huh? Fair hyperbole there. Everyone is going broke because the government is saying landlords can not evict tenants for 12 months. Why is government responsible for giving people some money because they lost their job? Because we have social empathy and we don’t want people starving on the street.
    Why is the government not responsible for subsidising someone’s investment? Because they aren’t starving on the street.
    What about retirees that decided to invest in the stock market? Should the government be responsible for subsidising these retirees as well. Why does a property investment get any special consideration?
     
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  9. Zimplestiltskin

    Zimplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    Is the landlord with a reduced rent tenant allowed to tell the bank about this situation and work out a deal with the bank as well?

    That should be the solution.
     
  10. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    That's kind of the whole point of what I originally wrote in this thread.

    There are three parties to most investment properties - the tenant, the landlord and the bank who holds the mortgage. The landlords are stuck in the middle in any negotiations.

    Landlords are very much dependent on the banks here and certainly do not hold all the power in negotiations as implied by some people in the media.
     
  11. Firefly99

    Firefly99 Well-Known Member

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    Most (or at least a lot of) landlords don’t pay land tax anyway so this does not help them.
     
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  12. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Who's starving on the street who's receiving JobKeeper?

    There are real people starving on the street every day but I wonder how many or if you ever cared.
     
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  13. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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  14. Joynz

    Joynz Well-Known Member

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    How do these landlords avoid paying land tax?
     
  15. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    These people sitting back enjoying jobkeeper must be employed by someone to receive jobkeeper. That means that there employer must be shut down and awaiting restrictions to be eased so they can open up and get these people back to there current jobs. I'm not sure why they would leave there current job knowing it will open soon and start a new job as in the link you posted. They could also currently be permanently employed and that would make it even more silly to leave and start a new job.
    Am I missing something here?
     
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  16. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    Our properties' land value is below the LT Threshold for each individual state. Remember most landlords only own one investment property and they do not read this forum.
     
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  17. Firefly99

    Firefly99 Well-Known Member

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    They don’t need to as they don’t own enough land.
     
  18. BunnyXiao

    BunnyXiao Well-Known Member

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    I pay land tax in Canberra on a studio apartment I own. 500AUD a quarter for land tax. (also rates on top)
     
  19. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Is that the only property you own in Canberra? That is steep. In Queensland we don't pay until we reach $600k (personal name).

    But then it ramps up quickly. We paid about $14k on just two suburban blocks. That takes a big chunk of the rental income from two old houses just because the land is valuable, and of course, the threshold never moves.

    That will rise to $17k as we've reconfigured into three lots.
     
  20. BunnyXiao

    BunnyXiao Well-Known Member

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    Yup that's the one! It would be lucky if its worth 250K. Rates, land tax, strata fees all horrendously high. But the block is sitting on a large envelope of land but my apartment is tiny...Canberra!
    Edited to say income ....I'm a kinder teacher and my properties are neg geared so dont pay tax. Except for the student loan the gov hunts me for on my global income