COVID-19 impacts on the Australian economy & housing market

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Redom, 17th Mar, 2020.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th May, 2019
    Posts:
    1,448
    Location:
    NSW
    Well as long as on paper you have a 30% revenue loss in the month then no questions are asked full stop.I know this because I know companies that are doing it.
     
    Francesco likes this.
  2. The Butler

    The Butler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    128
    Location:
    Sydney
    IIRC not the case. ATO are stating they will audit if suspicious, including the bedmaker reportedly under investigation over an $11m JK claim.
    You keep on banging the same drum in multiple threads... we get it.
    If you're that upset about it, and you know some companies where rorting is occurring then I hope you've tipped off the ATO like the other 2609 tips off prior to May 20.
    ATO to investigate $11m JobKeeper claim
     
  3. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th May, 2019
    Posts:
    1,448
    Location:
    NSW
    That's ok I understand that you don't get it.
    Problem with it is, is no one is breaking the law.
    It's a flaw in the system - bleeding taxpayers millions and millions
    But Hey who cares:confused:
     
  4. The Butler

    The Butler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    128
    Location:
    Sydney
    But it is against the law - that's the whole point.
    I'm not sure the ATO could make it any clearer...
    ATO zeroes in on COVID-19 fraud
    And if you break the law or are suspected of breaking the law then you risk being audited, found out and punished.
    I think i get it.
     
    Joynz likes this.
  5. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th May, 2019
    Posts:
    1,448
    Location:
    NSW
    So going on holidays is against the law?
     
  6. The Butler

    The Butler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    128
    Location:
    Sydney
    No, going on holiday is not against the law. But I suspect that most businesses can't or don't just go on holidays. Maybe an indivdual tradie working as a sole trader - but a business with more employees? Or with regular repeat customers? I don't think that's the norm.
    I own and work in a small business with 22 employees and my business claims the JK allowance.
    Our turnover was down by over 50% at the time of registering.
    I had to make a decison to stay open or close.
    I chose to stay open so as to not lose my staff and customers.
    I guess I could have closed operations and staff wouldn't have had to work, and could have been recipients of the JK allowance (not sure). But all my customers would have gone elsewhere. This would have been pretty short sighted - especially since I would not be receiving the financial benefit of JK - the staff would.
    The only way a business benefits financially from JK is if they have productive work for registered employees which therefore saves the business payroll costs. But only if you've suffered a 30% fall in turnover or more.
    Everything else is either just cooking the books, an outlier or business suicide IMO.
     
    Simon Hampel and abc like this.
  7. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th May, 2019
    Posts:
    1,448
    Location:
    NSW
    Exactly, businesses that never stopped working during this Pandemic. So easy for these guys to get it, whether you want to believe it or not. Just like the best lawyers get guilty criminals off there charges, this probably doesn't happen either ay? The best accountants can easily show a 30% decrease in revenue, piece of cake.

    I'm glad you got the help you deserve, 50% revenue loss would be nearly impossible to recover from. Do you mind if ask what industry you are in and if it has picked back up after the easing of restrictions?
     
  8. The Butler

    The Butler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    128
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yes, but those accountants/businesses are cooking the books and run the risk of audit and punishment for breaking the law.
    Yes, its easy to break most laws - but its still breaking the law and you run the risk of having to face the consequences.

    Im pretty sure that my business didn't deserve the assistance any more than one that was 29% down or 100% down. I'll just take what is legally available if needed, and try to put it to good use.

    The reduction in payroll costs allowed us to keep a number of international temp visa holders on staff that have no financial support - but that's a whole other discussion.

    Im in dry cleaning and things have steadily improved - only minus 20% now. I'm lucky as our business model is a little bit different to most in our industry. Most are still down 40-80%. In Melbourne many can be open due to their status as essential - but with little to no customers - what to do?
     
  9. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th May, 2019
    Posts:
    1,448
    Location:
    NSW
    Thanks for the honesty. Hopefully it stays only 20% down and you wont need jobkeeper after September:cool:

    As for big businesses cooking the books that is hilarious:D
     
  10. The Butler

    The Butler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    128
    Location:
    Sydney
    I didn't say big or small, nor did I say that they do or don't do it. What I was trying to say is that just because most laws are easy to break - doesn't mean that everybody is breaking them, most aren't. Those that do - run a risk, no matter how big or small the business.

    Both my outsourced bookeeper and tax accountant sent round robin emails to their clients (our business was a recipient) detailing the JK scheme and warning against manipulating income to become eligible and the consequences of doing so. I would suggest this is more the norm.
    I'm sure there are exceptions to the norm.
    If you have proof (nay - even suspicions) of rorting - call the ATO tipline. It will do much more good than continuously banging on about it on here.

    Thanks for your best wishes - if we stay 20% down, we wont qualify for further assistance after Sept as things currently stand. I too am hoping we won't need it.
     
    Last edited: 8th Aug, 2020
  11. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    13,523
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I wish you all the best also.

    I hope the adage "what doesn't kill you will only make you stronger" is true for your biz. :)

    The Y-man
     
  12. The Butler

    The Butler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    128
    Location:
    Sydney
    Thanks Y-man - we'll get there - just gotta keep throwing punches.
    Feel for your industry - there's one that's currently doing it hard - but it could be argued that they'd had a good run and been the recipient of favourable govt policy for a while. Doesn't make it any easier on the staff though.
    Best of luck with your AREIT holdings too - I have no holdings, have always feared a repeat of GFC style declines/issues - how are areits holding up in general this time around?
     
  13. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th May, 2019
    Posts:
    1,448
    Location:
    NSW
    Thats right, but I was talking soley about big businesses doing this at the start of the discussion.

    Then you replied about those businesses as above so I took that as you talking about big business?

    Good luck with it all anyhow, we may have different views on things but they are only for the good of the country.
     
  14. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    13,523
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Still got plenty happening - despite people telling me to be prepared to sit back and relax because nothing was happening this semester - got 2 big classes online :)

    Obviously my shopping centre reits are.... well a bit quiet :D

    The big commercials are fine - governments and listed biz can't just stop paying rent like small biz :)

    The Y-man
     
    The Butler likes this.
  15. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    12,414
    Location:
    Sydney
    Australia had six-months to fix our coronavirus housing problems — it looks like we blew it

    In March, the coronavirus crisis threatened to bring the roof down on the rental market that houses one-in-three Australians, as incomes crashed and evictions loomed.

    A combination of income support, "pausing" repayments on mortgages and a ban on evictions propped up the system and bought all the players six months to work out a comprehensive solution.

    Now, the support is being wound back.

    Within weeks, we will find out what lies ahead for the tenants who can't pay, the landlords who can't meet their mortgage or the structure of the housing market that has left millions in such a precarious position.

    "I can't see a solution," says Tenants Victoria chief executive Jennifer Beveridge.

    ...​

    They talk of a power imbalance in the article when it comes to tenancy negotiations with landlords "holding all the power".

    I think it's a bit more complicated than that.

    The residential tenancy legislation is very clear and detailed and is in place to ensure equitable treatment for both tenants and landlords. In my view, the eviction moratoriums have shifted the power balance in favour of the tenants by allowing them to negate the legislation and distort the market - although to be fair, the degree to which this has happened varies from state to state based on the details of the local legislation.

    The thing is that the relationship between tenants and landlords is only half the story.

    There is an even bigger power imbalance - that between the landlords and the banks who hold the mortgage over their property.

    It's all well and good for the legislation to be set aside to prevent landlords from evicting tenants if they don't abide by the contract they signed to pay their rent - but there is no such obligation on the banks to provide equal benefits to the landlord. The banks hold the ultimate power in this relationship here - with landlords stuck in the middle.

    On one side we have tenants who don't have to pay rent - while on the other side we have banks who insist that we continue to pay the mortgage.

    The only thing that is holding the banks back from moving on landlords en masse is the fact that so many landlords have been affected that foreclosing on all of them will lead to major fallout for the banks in terms of the quality of their loan books and potentially their funding costs, etc.

    The longer this goes on, the worse the situation gets for everyone.

    Either way - evicting tenants during a pandemic was never the correct course of action.

    However, leaving it up to the tenant to negotiate with a landlord who themselves have no real power to negotiate with their lender is not the ideal outcome either.

    It would have been ideal if we could come up with some kind of rental supplement payment to help affected tenants - thus allowing tenants to stay in their home and allowing landlords to meet their mortgage obligations. But the problem with that approach is that the money would have had to come from the federal government, while the legislation covering residential tenancies is all state-based - so it would have been complicated to manage.

    The worst case scenario for everyone is having the banks start to foreclose on delinquent mortgages brought on by tenants who are disincentivised to pay the rent they signed a contract for. Nobody wins in that situation.

    The temporary legislation has severely distorted the market - I don't think we fully understand what the consequences of those actions will be yet and I fear the longer things remain in this state, the worse off we'll all be in the long term.

    I guess the only hope we really have is that we get the virus under control as quickly as possible and start to re-open as much of the economy as we can.
     
    Coffee, abc, willair and 6 others like this.
  16. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    5,816
    Location:
    Paradise, Brisbane
    Last edited: 4th Sep, 2020
    Ardi and Simon Hampel like this.
  17. essendonfan

    essendonfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    27th Mar, 2019
    Posts:
    137
    Location:
    Sydney
    Eviction moratorium extended to end of March 2021 for Victoria.

    Eww
     
  18. Jello_B

    Jello_B Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    10th Jul, 2016
    Posts:
    129
    Location:
    Sydney
    The landlords could have sold their property(s) in this time. Rent prices will reduce (as they are) to match what the market can afford. The winners out of this is housing affordability, prices will come down. Those investors that haven’t over leveraged will have the opportunity to purchase at a lower price. Why should the federal government (the tax payer) subsidise landlord investments?
     
  19. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th May, 2017
    Posts:
    10,344
    Location:
    Australia
    Because longer term, once all of this settles down, the government needs private landlords. Or it has to provide a lot more public housing.
     
    craigc and Simon Hampel like this.
  20. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    12,414
    Location:
    Sydney
    It's not about subsidising landlords - it's about keeping tenants in housing.

    If a landlord is forced to sell, a tenant loses their home.

    If a tenant can't afford to pay the rent, they certainly can't afford to buy.

    The whole point of what I wrote was that the market has been distorted by government intervention.

    There are three parties to most tenanted housing situations - the tenant, the landlord and the bank.

    If the bank is forced to foreclose because the landlord can no longer pay the mortgage because the tenant no longer has to pay their contractually agreed rent, then nobody wins.