COVID-19 impacts on the Australian economy & housing market

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Redom, 17th Mar, 2020.

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  1. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    Just human nature. Some people are worried, some people are looking for opportunity.
    These are unprecedented times and not one single person can accurately predict what lies ahead. I think everyone wants to be part of the solution and by that I mean helping out with economic predictions that could make or break us in the future.
     
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  2. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    LOL, Its not a problem on the way up so why are you concerned about it on the way down? Your post is almost Orwellian, from the propaganda think tank - Do you think the masses need to be placated with only positive info? Your post is as asymmetrical as central bank policy.

    Without offence (and I'm taking a guess here) are you speaking more about yourself than others?
    Give people the data/facts, let them decide. When the world slips into 6- 8 % GDP contraction, everyone is included, there is no unicorn haven.
     
    Last edited: 20th Jun, 2020
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  3. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    In my view, they're just lobbying the federal government for a bailout, a shot across the bow to remind them they don't want to trigger then FCS.


    Go here click forecast, 25 y

    Australia Home Loans | 2002-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Historical | Chart | News.

    Then go here and click forecast 25 y

    Australia House Price Index QoQ | 2002-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar

    The two don't even relate. So were going to have less loans written than in the GFC , but positive house prices?

    Its literally being made up by the second.
     
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  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Agree
    if we have had two negative quarters we are technically in a recession. I dont think any markets boom when economy is going backwards, we just dont know how it will impact ?
     
  5. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Well I read there was some kerfuffle with corelogic and housing data cover-up? Can't really trust the data nowadays..
     
  6. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    They eliminated the back series and daily index. Again, Asymmetrical, fine on the way up, but not on the way down..
     
  7. Primary341

    Primary341 Well-Known Member

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  8. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  10. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    AlphabetSoup, gman65 and DueDiligence like this.
  11. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    The announcement was carefully timed to stop people escaping in panic across the border ... uh hang on....

    The Y-man
     
  12. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    MelbourneVID-19
     
  13. roadworthy

    roadworthy Member

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    Guys there has been a bit of talk about this pandemic making more people go looking for a bolt-hole out of the city

    Sounds plausible to me but does anyone have any info (anecdotal or otherwise) that indicates this has indeed been happening? Are rural/regional lifestyle properties currently getting snapped up left right and center? Or not so much?
     
  14. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    I think it's too early to tell .. I think after this shakes out properly there may be some larger structural changes.

    I can only go off small things I am seeing in my world, but many I know have relished the wfh option. In my office (QLD) for a few weeks now, returning to the office is entirely optional, yet only 1/3 have elected to do so even a day or two a week. Company is doing well, kicking goals, etc. If this carries through to longer term I am sure many will start to re-assess their living/location arrangements.

    But nobody is going to be doing that on the basis of just 6 months...
     
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  15. Vertigo

    Vertigo Well-Known Member

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    Don stammer writes a good read, No panic ever lasts and either will this...wind back your brain clocks back 20 years and you will see that most financial interruptions only last few years at most

    ● In 1997 and 1998, the Asian financial crises.

    ● In 1998, the Russian crisis; and the problems of Long-Term Capital Management.

    ● In 2000, the tech wreck that resulted from the dot.com crisis.

    ● In 2001, the terrorist attacks of September 11 in the US.

    ● In 2002, the corporate fraud exposures in the US, including Enron.

    ● In 2008 and 2009, the global financial crisis; and fears of recession in Australia.

    ● In 2010 and 2011, sovereign debt crises in Europe.

    ● In 2013, the “taper crisis” in US bonds.

    ● In late 2015, fears the US would “double dip”; and of China having a “hard landing”.

    ● In 2016, Brexit; and the negative initial response to Donald Trump’s US presidential win.
     
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  16. Vertigo

    Vertigo Well-Known Member

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    Readers might like to look back at the list of the financial crises of the past 25 years, and separate the individual crises into two buckets: one labelled as “real crises” (where investors did need to bunker down for a lengthy period); and the other called “false crises” (which were short-lasting and gave investors opportunity to buy quality assets cheaply).

    Of course, it’s not always possible to pick, at the time, how serious the crisis will be. With the advantage of hindsight, only two of the 17 episodes on my list — the global financial upheaval of 2009 and the dot.com problems in 2000 — would now be seen as real crises. The others, if remembered at all, would be categorised as false crises.
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Lol
    I have to switch off the media as they are maximising it and its working
     
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  18. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Wheels certainly fell off when car manufacturers like Toyota exited. Not sure how much they are spending for green hub research for the repurposed plant at altona, but probably not as much as when it was making cars.
     
  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes, the sun will shine again, but with every downturn or crises it can take years for a full recovery.

    My point is you still need to be able to ride out downturns.

    For those who are highly leveraged and no buffers in place this will hurt


    Just to add to this.....
    In 2007 US had subprime disaster, property in some States dropped 70%, it started to recover in 2011, so 4 years. This also hammered rents

    Perth - mining crash 2007, high end has still not fully recovered, 13 years


    Hence, We have no idea how long it will take for a full recovery when markets go pear shaped
     
    Last edited: 3rd Aug, 2020
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  20. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Dan Andrews: The economic impacts on Victoria will take years to recover from.
    abc.net.au

    The Y-man
     

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