COVID-19 impacts on Australian airlines

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by HUGH72, 14th Apr, 2020.

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  1. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    No - it's just what the private equity firms want.

    Once it's in administration, they can negotiate to pay cents in the dollar to buy a potentially viable business - wiping out most of Virgin's $5 billion of debt and leaving creditors and existing shareholders to wear the losses.

    With that much debt, nobody was going to take on the company at market prices. Wait until the choices are "cents" or "nothing" and then swoop in to pick up a bargain.

    I didn't realise just how much debt the company had - would be crazy for the govt to take an equity position IMO.
     
  2. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    If they swoop back in and buy it, what happens to all the staff? The name? Can it be back up and running quickly?
     
  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Would be entirely up to the new owners I think. Not sure what happens to staff entitlements - I'm sure the govt has policies on that - don't the staff come before creditors in priority now? Need one of our accountants to chime in here.

    The trading name would depend on what rights the business has to the name - it could be that they aren't allowed to continue trading under the Virgin brand? I don't know.

    If the the brand is an asset of the business that can be purchased by the new owner, I don't see why they wouldn't continue trading under that brand - it's a pretty strong brand here in Australia.
     
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  4. Islay

    Islay Well-Known Member

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    there is all those people with credit for cancelled flights too - there were no refunds. They are creditors too
     
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  5. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Any purchaser wanting to operate the airline in Australia would be crazy to not honour flight credits if they want to maintain any kind of goodwill with the Australian public. Same with velocity points.
     
  6. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Staff entitlements I believe they get, I was more so asking if the new owners can get the airline up and running ASAP, as in not years.

    Anyone know if the new owners can get the company up and running straight away? I was under the impression you couldn’t and it’s a very timely process.
     
  7. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    It would depend on how quickly the creditors can come to an agreement. I'm assuming the lessors of the planes would get a say too - that might be the really difficult part - coming to an agreement on taking over the plane leases.

    If the administrator is happy that the business is going to be viable - I'm pretty sure they can allow it to continue to operate while in administration, which would allow them to take advantage of any agreements with the govt over restarting flights around Australia again.
     
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  8. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    So, VAH is going VA
     
  9. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Airforce recruitment is generally limited to those in a narrow age band.

    I don't think that will be happen for a generation, possibly longer. Large UAVs are a different situation, they are highly regulated by CASA but are unmanned, operating in remote airspace only. The military is rapidly moving in this direction.

    There is little appetite in terms of regular public transport to make such a step in a highly regulated and safe industry where crew are the last line of defence to system malfunctions. Technology can currently assist with diagonsis of problems but it still isn't a replacement for crew analysis of a left field problem in a dynamic environment.
     
  10. random

    random Well-Known Member

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    lt's only one bunch of morons , keep the faith , every country is having trouble with some. like those idiots and their toilet paper , we're now known as those two all over the world , they think that's Australians . Up in my area though l'm really proud myself of how people have been and the good will about. And also with customers l've dealt with too from all over oz, phone, gees people have been good it's really surprised me.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 20th Apr, 2020
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  11. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Bought Qantas today. Let’s see what happens :)
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Reading between the lines, a private company with vested interest will buy

    lets see

    government is out
     
  13. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    This is only the start.

    The west is history.

    Another 15,000 people straight to centrelink.
     
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  14. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    The whole company? :D:p
     
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  15. Ted Varrick

    Ted Varrick Well-Known Member

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    Virgin's balance sheet in their 31 December 19 HY report is pretty woeful, and lending more money to them is probably not going to end well. How is it going to be repaid?

    Apparently they are paying Richard Branson $15m per year for the name, so maybe he should refund a few years worth, just for good
    will reasons.

    Maybe a 1 for 1 share rights issue could ease the pain a bit at say 10c a share, so all the "major shareholders" can stump up some coin.

    Stephen Mayne had an excellent article on 20 April on his website in his collaboration with the Eureka Report (this is not a free plug, just a reference, as I dont think I can post a link) regarding a restructure, where the govt dilutes the other shareholders, amongst other things, is excellent.

    And the administrators should immediately renegotiate the aircraft leases, as parked jets must surely be worth 30c on the dollar.
     
  16. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Yep!
    I’m the queen of Qantas, but you won’t see it published in the news anywhere :p:D
     
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  17. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Depends what ends up happening.. no guarantee it will be sold as a going concern. Each of these assets such as terminal rights, frequent flyer programmes, aircraft leasing rights, whatever else could be split off separately and sold to the highest bidders by a private equity vulture.
     
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  18. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    It hasn't happened yet. It feels like a lehmans brother moment, If this falls who's next
     
  19. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Qantas isn't flying internationally until the end of the year they reckon. Most of their flying is overseas.
     
  20. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    I think its 50:50 international and domestic.

    Edit: Link found. (Qantas 2019 Data book). Key info has been added as screenshot images.

    Redirect Notice

    Interestingly, the International portion of the business significantly lags behind the other segments in terms of EBIT, especially if you compare the revenue to the EBIT.

    Jetstar is a reasonably significant portion of Qantas' business too. Along with the loyalty programme, which is still profit making.
    Also know that fuel prices are right down now, they should be able to take advantage of this fact. Screenshot_20200420-234114_Drive.jpg Screenshot_20200420-234141_Drive.jpg Screenshot_20200420-234157_Drive.jpg Screenshot_20200420-234224_Drive.jpg
     
    Last edited: 20th Apr, 2020