Could it get any worse

Discussion in 'Politics' started by MTR, 1st May, 2019.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Who knows??? Depends on how much pain

    Wont bother me either way. Newbies may be a very different story
     
  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    You are assuming majority of investors jumped into boom cycles Syd, Melb .....many investors on PC for example placed their eggs into Brisbane and Adelaide which has had little or no growth.

    Winners and losers.
     
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  3. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    You may need to take the blinkers off and take a broader look The data and evidence I have seen apart from some localities in Melbourne. victorian property prices have risen an average of 5% in the last 12 months. Some areas such as Redan and Mildura an Average of 10% with the more expensive houses much more. Some areas nearer Melbourne 30%. units in Brighton are still going up at 10k a month, about 100k in the last year to over 1000,000k . There is also an acute shortage of housing with less than 1% vacancy. I have had 15 calls just in the last week from people desperately looking for housing, there are signs on supermarket notice boards of people asking for rooms to rent, never seen that before. There was a Survey done in Robinvale to find why shop and grocery sales where so high for the size of the town , they found severe overcrowding in the houses with an average of 9 people/house. Real estate agents saying they cant get enough houses to sell. There has been land sales that have blown previous records away.
     
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  4. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Property prices go up, property prices go down.

    Interest rates go up, interest rates go down.

    People’s and intelligence and understanding of the property market stays flat.

    It is not “nasty stuff”.

    It is just “normal stuff”.
     
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  5. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    @petewargent posted this chart on twitter a while back - Pete Wargent on Twitter

    [​IMG]

    ... of course this is median values, which we all know does not represent every property - but at least on a macro-scale, the following conclusions can be made from this chart:
    1. If you had invested the same amount of money in Sydney, Adelaide and Brisbane in 2003 buying median valued properties - your Adelaide and Brisbane property portfolios would now be worth more than your Sydney portfolio!! This is because of the booms they had from 2003 - 2010 while Sydney was largely flat and has now come back from its recent peak.
    2. Sydney was flat until around 2010, but didn't really take off until 2013 and then has had a great run - quite a long one too. But it isn't always like that in Sydney (people in Sydney who started investing since 2013 may be of the belief that property markets only ever go up!) - there can be long flat periods too.
    3. Perth's boom from 2003 - 2007 was ridiculous, growth peaked in late 2013 and has been on a steady incline since then
    4. If you had invested the same amount of money in Perth and Sydney real estate in 2003, your Perth property portfolio would still be worth substantially more than your Sydney portfolio - even when Sydney was at its peak and despite the ongoing declines in value in Perth
    5. Other than between 2010 and 2013, Melbourne has been the outstanding performer over the long term - although if you had bought in 2010, you would have experienced pain for a few years.
    6. Unless there are other external factors such as a new mining boom driving prices up - Perth still has a way to go yet before it is largely back in line with the rest of the country - the market has become completely disconnected from the rest of the country due to the earlier aberration of the mining boom.
    7. I'm surprised at how similar Adelaide and Brisbane's growth pattern has been - almost identical since 2003.
    8. Darwin was great, until it wasn't - small markets can be incredibly volatile
    It does largely back up @MTR 's approach that timing the market is critical to maximise short term gains in those cities with more volatile markets - but you need to understand the nature of the growth - a boom like in Perth was great if you got in early, but given it was driven by external forces (mining boom) rather than fundamentals - it was always going to come to an end and correct.

    Of course, if the chart started in 2010, a very different outcome would be shown - but my point isn't to show that you should have invested in 2003 - it is to show that markets can be flat for an extended period - even in Sydney and Melbourne. Adelaide and Brisbane might not have been spectacular recently compared to Sydney and Melbourne - but their time will come and long term they still show good growth.

    PS. the first post was about politics - but I get the feeling this thread has moved on to economics since then?
     
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  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Folks looking to buy homes or semis in Sydney's East are seeing some fantastic prices atm. I see them only sliding a little more or stabilising out at this discount level. Some great value to be had in the coming 6-12 months.

    So all depends what 'worse' means for the individual. For many, the markets aren't worse at all and are showing fantastic opportunities for medium to long tern investors and ppl looking for their PpoR.


    Re timing. I agree timing is important for those looking to build large portfolios asap. There's no two ways about that.
     
  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    OK, denial wont be your friend in 2019

    Just need to talk to people on the ground a couple of isolated good sales is not going to save us from credit squeeze or sums up markets in general.

    I could post stats and outlook by corelogic, NAB outlook etc but I let you work it out
    Lets review the market in December 2019 and this thread
     
  8. craigc

    craigc Well-Known Member

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    Generally agree with most of this Peter except the reduction of benefits to the wealthy. Those with existing and multiple properties in their portfolio can offset the negative gearing on new additions to portfolio against other positively geared mature IP’s, whereas Mum & Dad investors going for IP no.1 can’t.
    So I think it will hurt the medium to lower end of investors and those trying to start out more than the ‘wealthy’.
    Otherwise agree with your points.
     
  9. Peter_Tersteeg

    Peter_Tersteeg Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Actually I think we're in agreement on this as well. The really wealthy will take a larger hit from many of the proposed tax policies, but they have the surplus resources to cope with it.

    Whilst not as heavily affected as a real dollar figure, the middle class investor will also be affected and they don't have as much surplus to absorb it. It's going to hurt this sector quite a bit.
     
    craigc likes this.

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