QLD Could Brisbane Take Over As The Best Performing Capital City Housing Market In 5 Years?

I know I am flogging a dead horse here however this article I read this morning by CoreLogic I found to be very interesting (mainly because I put most of my eggs in this basket lol)...

Some key take outs which I took from this article which surprised me and showed promising signs for Brissie were comments on house price to income ratios, affordability, net interstate migration, and jobs growth - with QLD/Brissie outperforming other States in this category...

It did go on to say it probably won't see the growth rates of Syd and Mel due to the credit squeeze and oversupply of units in Brissie mainly...

"At the end of November 2017 Sydney house values were 102% higher than Brisbane’s and Melbourne values were 57% higher. Based on median household incomes, Sydney households are earning only 12.9% more than households in Brisbane’s and incomes across Melbourne are actually 0.7% lower than Brisbane’s."

"Similarly, the proportion of gross annual household income required to service an 80% LVR mortgage is now 48.4% in Sydney compared with 39.9% in Melbourne and 31.7% in Brisbane."

"Net interstate migration is where Queensland is demonstrating its pulling power, attracting the highest number of residents from other states in eight and a half years. Net migrants crossing the state border into Queensland is now the highest of any state, outpacing Victoria for the first time since June 2013."

"The labour market is also strengthening across Queensland. Jobs growth across the state was the fastest of any state or territory. Based on trend data, the annual rate of jobs growth reached 4.8% over the twelve months ending November 2017, substantially higher than any other region. In raw numbers, 113,000 jobs were created across Queensland over the past year, more than New South Wales (111,000) and Victoria (94,000)."

Could Brisbane Take Over As The Best Performing Capital City Housing Market In 5 Years?

 

Interesting insights, though I would tend to believe that recent high migration to QLD can be attributed to Commonwealth Games 2018 in Gold Coast to a great extent. I know many infra and project management companies have deputed reasonable numbers of their staff in Gold Coast/ Brissy for this reason. I am not sure whether this migration is long-term and will last/continue beyond 2018. Hope it does

 

"and incomes across Melbourne are actually 0.7% lower than Brisbane’s"

thats a hard one to believe.

 

I cant find the 2017 data, although the 2016 Census data on the ABS shows median household income:
Melbourne - $1,542
Brisbane - $1,562

 

Only this morning, I received a phone call from one of my Sydney cousins. Him and his family live in Sydney in a small house, small backyard, etc.

He has been offered a job opportunity/promotion in Brisbane in IT. He said a lot of his contacts in the industry are moving north or considering a move north.

He reckons he can get a 3/4 bedrooom house, good size backyard, maybe a swimming pool, ... for around $600K.

They would keep their Sydney property and rent it out.

I told him to come north and bring all your mates with you.

Gotta fuel this boom somehow .

 

Starting to see ALOT of things align for Brisbane. I personally think this is the prime time to get into the market now (actually I think last year was as Ive seen some significant growth already).

Its going to take off and everything in that article is what is being echoed by many other sources and my own research so its good to see there are many investors with the same view.

May it rain with $100 bills for all who own Brisbane property.

 

Logan, Ipswich and Moreton Bay are areas with very investor-heavy interest. The question is - if they will move upward at all. In last 1 yr there has been little movement. Price increase in inner Brisbane doesn't really help many of the investors here.

 

And only 20k's from the city . It is good value!! 29 Clifton Place Parkinson Qld 4115 - House for Sale #127317942 - realestate.com.au

 

Thats ok. I got more houses in Brisbane City Council too. I dont care I'm not retiring for at least another 5 years so I'm willing to wait.

Where are you getting your stats from? I know for sure my Logan houses and Moreton Bay houses have increased because I took out equity on 2 of them last year. If your looking at purely RE averages or Domain website sorry not interested as there is more to it than that.

Get a proper paid valuation done from the bank, the ones I have done either for taking out capital or refinancing purposes I have had growth in ALL my houses in ALL the councils. Of course all different amounts but all have increased. Thats from CBRE and API.

 

@virhlpool I have been watching the Moreton Bay market over the past two years and bought some properties in the region. The market is moving and properties are going under contract faster and less discounting going on.

Can't speak for what's going on the ground in Ipswich or Logan as I have more so focused on the Northside.

Also these stats from CoreLogic suggest in the recent 12 months all regions of Brissie are performing at a pretty similar rate (bar Ipswich & inner city). Moreton Bay North is the second best performer behind Brisbane Nth (also purchased one Brisbane Nth)...
How Does Value Growth Over The Past Year Compare To The Previous Five Years?

 

Affordability relative to Sydney & Melbourne, interstate migration and a decline in development over the last 12-24 months points towards a strong market to my mind. The biggest problem is APRA and the banks.

 

If you want to buy in Parkinson you would be better off to look in the Stretton College catchment part of the suburb.
Marg

 

Even before APRA I've always strongly believed in buying in high demand, emotional OO areas where they usually are happy to put a large deposit in and dont have too much other debt to affect finance . I've never been one to target the investor markets. Not even just OO markets...I want SUPER strong OO markets. Hasn't let us down so far .

 

Definitely! St Thomas More College is nice too, a lot of locals go there. School Catchment Maps

 

I reckon in 5 year's time Brisbane is most likely going to be the strongest market out of the cap cities.

On probability:
50% Brisbane
30% Melbourne
10% Perth (if there's another resource/commodities boom )
10% Other

Job growth and interstate migration are leading indicators so not expecting Brissy to move significantly in the short term.

There's also less investor money this cycle

 

Yep....that is a no brainer...Brisbane based on where the cycle is...Brissie should top out somewhere in 2021-2022.

As we all know Sydney is now correcting...Melbourne will be headed down by late 2019 /2020.

 

Bang on I reckon.

 

As an unashamed North Sider. For a similar price you can be closer to city and train with arguably better schools in the north west.

 

Cool, example please!