Could a stock market and bond crash, push more investors into housing?

Agree. Also, the individual risk profile, investment timeframe and investment knowledge are factors. While I'm not happy that my shares are down 10-15 per cent in the last few months, I'm used to this and can wait. A new investor may well panic. My defensive strategy is to have enough cash to last a sever income drop for several years.

My buy strategy is to look for undervalued shares and property that have good long-term capital gain and increasing income. I have never bought at the bottom; near enough is good enough and does not matter much 10-20 years later. Most of my share buys have worked out well, with the gains easily offsetting the losses.

 

I am assuming you are talking about cashed up investors (retirees?)
as getting in to high debt in fast rising IR environment is not a good idea.

Next 12-24 months,
Sydney Melbourne will most likely feel the full brunt of rising IR.
Brisbane would be next (with slightly lesser impact) and finally the heat will come to perth shores, though minimal.

If one is cashed up, preserving capital, with no risk, should be the prime objective in current times.

My bet would be, the cashed up capital will start flowing to TDs (short term) which are now getting juicier
12mn: 2.9%
36mn: 3.9%
48mn: 4.10%

TDs will get even juicier going ahead, this will attract further long term capital flow.

 

Why would people who are concerned with falling asset values invest into another asset which is falling? As the @TheSackedWiggle stated the TD’s will become more appealing for retirees along with other income generating vehicles.

 

maybe you should read all my comments in this thread and see if you feel it applies to you rather than choosing one comment to quote and respond to …

I know I can’t pick the bottom in shares . Thought I think it’s not that hard with property . I’ve nailed it more than once in property.

To clarify the point you chose to quote

If someone is buying now , thinking that now is the bottom , for a long term buy and hold , I’m happy to stand by my comment they have NFI , aside from my comment before that people who know what they’re doing don’t need advice from randoms ( ie anyone they don’t know ) on a property forum .

Maybe that applies to you , and if you read that you wouldn’t have responded the way you did .

Hope you buy goes well . Will watch with interest and will check out BTI . We are looking at diversifying at some stage .

cliff

 

NO.

 

It's the same crowd who invest in high beta, low quality growth stocks (think ARKK invest). I wouldn't say this crowd isn't interested in fundamentals - there is a lot of smart money playing in this space now but who knows how they hell they even value this type of stuff (with many such companies are on huge multiples and/or not yet profitable - or with Crypto, lack of cashflow with the exception of coins that can be staked for yield). Maybe on weird metrics like purely customer growth, revenue growth (and not caring about profitability) all for the 'future potential'.

RE: crypto, throw in an additional element of the bitcoin halving cycle (roughly 4 years), which throughout the relatively short history has led to wild bull markets in every cycle to new all time highs before crashing 85% and you have an idea about how wild the ride is.

I think there is a play in quality tech like Alphabet and low quality growth, crypto and maybe even 20 year treasuries (via a long duration bond ETF) when the market considers the fed to be more predictable and if (when) there is a recession and subsequent reversal of QT.