Coronavirus

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Lizzie, 29th Jan, 2020.

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  1. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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    Another 24 hours hours and new cases continues to flatline across Australia.

    The projected 20,000 cases by April 1 widely projected two weeks far off the mark.
     
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  2. shorty

    shorty Well-Known Member

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    Questions:

    1. Do you think this looks flat?
    https://www.covid19data.com.au/

    2. Do you think people in Australia are less likely to be infected than other countries, and if so, why?

    3. What do you think is going to happen in Australia?
     
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  3. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Unfortunately today:
    It comes as the number of people diagnosed with coronavirus in Victoria jumped by 111 cases overnight, taking the state total to 685.

    Victoria confirms biggest jump in coronavirus cases as new fines introduced

    The Y-man
     
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  4. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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    It's a cumulative graph over a short period of time. Will take weeks to show a flattening of the curve.

    I would assume it doesn't include recoveries which doesn't help. NSW don't even record recovered patients.

    I'm referring to the daily number of cases which are not increasing over the last week. Sorry if you don't think that's a positive.

    10 days ago April 1 projection was 20,000 infected, 2,000 in ICU. 200,000 by Easter.

    The doomsday scenarios are not occurring.

    For the moment we are seeing a balancing act between minimising deaths and avoiding burning the house down.

    Our PM and premiers are doing the best they can.
     
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  5. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Except for Qld with the "Move along, keep your distance, nothing to see here election" ;)
     
  6. turk

    turk Well-Known Member

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    But the better news which wasn't in that ABC Bulletin was the lower growth in the more troubling category of community transmitted cases.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/...0-deaths-in-a-single-day-20200327-p54er5.html

    Yesterday, the number of locally transmitted cases jumped from nine to 16, the most significant increase to date.
    Today, that number grew by five to 21, representing slower growth of the type of cases that trouble health authorities because they indicate a localised spread of the virus not linked to overseas travellers.
     
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  7. samiam

    samiam Well-Known Member

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    People are doing the best they can and flattening the curve. They are helping us, health care workers. Next 2 weeks will tell us more. There may be a second wave here- hope a smaller peak
     
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  8. Smee

    Smee Well-Known Member

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    By following these Government's directions we can also stop the spread of the deadly seasonal flu - "each year influenza causes an average of 13,500 hospitalisations and more than 3,000 deaths among Australians aged over 50 years" source - Colds and flu statistics
     
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  9. shorty

    shorty Well-Known Member

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    Question - if the testing criteria is restricted to:

    - you have symptoms and have been overseas, or
    - you have symptoms and have been in contact with a known positive case

    How would do you measure community transmission? A mate of mine was on a flight with a known case. No symptoms. Was contacted 13 days after the flight and told to stay home for 1 day then all good. No test. Could have been asymptomatic and infected plenty of people and we wouldn't have a clue.
     
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  10. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Similar thoughts... Sydney, Melb, then Bris in terms of foreigner visitor arrivals.. Nothing too cold yet numbers are still growing. Brisbane for instance, and rate of change is not better than south. "warmer weather" seems rather hopeful than factual.
     
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  11. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Well the numbers aren't lying. It would appear that the number of new cases per day is dropping/flat-lining.

    Still need another week or to to confirm the trend but so far so good.
     
  12. Bunbury

    Bunbury Well-Known Member

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  13. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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  14. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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    hammer and Ardi like this.
  15. skater

    skater Well-Known Member

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  16. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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  17. shorty

    shorty Well-Known Member

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    New cases:
    22 March - 225
    23 March - 280
    24 March - 328
    25 March - 370
    26 March - 380
    27 March - 379
    28 March - 371
    29 March - 460

    Numbers are clearly growing. Thanks.
     
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  18. # 1

    # 1 Well-Known Member

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    The "total infected" is the most useless number out there as it is entirely false everywhere. Not everyone is tested and the only people who get tested are those showing any symptoms. The average joe who isn't showing any symptoms whatsoever is still sitting at home waiting for the quarantine to be lifted. Absolutely everyone is lying about their numbers, but that's also because they themselves don't know the true numbers. Be willing to bet a significant amount of money that there are well over a million people worldwide infected, yet only half that have been reported
     
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  19. Bunbury

    Bunbury Well-Known Member

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    Yes, we lack a clear, centralised source of data. The data on health.gov was last updated '...to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) at 11.59pm 27 March 2020.' So it is 34 hours and 9 minutes out of date at the time of this post.

    The data should be updated in a timely manner including over the weekend.

    Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers
     
  20. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Many of the pundits are saying the under-reporting is closer to only 1 in 11 cases are reported.

    Doesn't the bug take weekends off? Hence the delay in closing down sporting events and large gatherings?
     
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